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Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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Met Office now saying 34’C for some south eastern spots by Thursday. Mid twenties even as far as Scotland. Models show the hottest conditions to be a bit later, on Friday, so either it could get hotter still or they think the hottest air will come in a bit earlier. Wonder if we’ll see further westward ‘corrections’ on the 12zs....

Edited by MattStoke

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Longer term the GEFS 6z mean is insanely hot with +15 850's across southern england. It's a hot run for southern uk, the southeast looks to be on course for the hottest spell of this summer so far!☺

21_372_850tmp.png

21_372_2mtmpmax.png

21_372_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.

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8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I mentioned this yesterday - the meto numbers started out 30c then have gone up 1c daily - now at 34...

We are homing in on that 35c Mark..

And if the GFS is to be believed, it could get a degree or so higher even than that, given that you can normally add a few degrees to what the GFS shows.

DE9618F2-FBD0-4F27-8F64-3BCBE90333DE.png

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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

And if the GFS is to be believed, it could get a degree or so higher even than that, given that you can normally add a few degrees to what the GFS shows.

DE9618F2-FBD0-4F27-8F64-3BCBE90333DE.png

 

Yep Fri seems to be the big day but not ruling out Sat as well especially as its out Annual Beano !!!!

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51 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I mentioned this yesterday - the meto numbers started out 30c then have gone up 1c daily - now at 34...

We are homing in on that 35c Mark..

The highest ever temperature recorded in the uk is 38.5 according to the met office.  With the heat being this intense and for such a long time, I reckon this could be broken.

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11 minutes ago, snowy weather said:

The highest ever temperature recorded in the uk is 38.5 according to the met office.  With the heat being this intense and for such a long time, I reckon this could be broken.

I really cant see it being broken next week. Why oh why are people still saying this? Theres hardly any support in models for 36C let alone 38.5

Edited by 38.5*C

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Eyes down for the 12s then, and much excitement as this potential plume or otherwise comes into sharper focus.  First out the blocks ICON, worth posting at T144 so we can compare against UKMO later! wouldn't take much of a westward correction...

image.thumb.jpg.5e657e40673d58cc5aaff563802de980.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.bc7c6318e8d713cf454b95769dca28cc.jpg

I'm minded that a westward correction is on it's way so let's see what the rest of the suite brings.  Bring on the plumes!

Edited by Mike Poole

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Eyes down for the 12s then, and much excitement as this potential plume or otherwise comes into sharper focus.  First out the blocks ICON, worth posting at T144 so we can compare against UKMO later! wouldn't take much of a westward correction...

image.thumb.jpg.5e657e40673d58cc5aaff563802de980.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.bc7c6318e8d713cf454b95769dca28cc.jpg

I'm minded that a westward correction is on it's way so let's see what the rest of the suite brings.  Bring on the plumes!

In all honesty thats gone too far east and is not the best of charts!!!lets hope the gfs and ukmo dont follow that!expected better from the icon!!anyway over to gfs!!

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ICON is not the most reliable of models. Let’s see what the big three say.

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32 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

I really cant see it being broken next week. Why oh why are people still saying this? Theres hardly any support in models for 36C let alone 38.5

I know the ground is very dry which will add a degree or two to maxes however the 38.5c was at the end of 9 or 10days above 30c and was supported by 850’s of 22/23c.

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17 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I know the ground is very dry which will add a degree or two to maxes however the 38.5c was at the end of 9 or 10days above 30c and was supported by 850’s of 22/23c.

Not so, the 20C isotherm only just made it into the south east for the record breaking 10 August 2003:

image.thumb.jpg.a9fbba09c6fd041da62104b5d0486558.jpg

And back to now, this is one occasion you'd like to see the next couple of frames for the UKMO, here at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.efe6ad5d9a73e610fb7e6369d29a81cb.jpg

is the low going to be that close?  Time will tell. (T850s not out yet)

Edit, they are now and this ones got a right nose on it! 

image.thumb.jpg.929be921d705c83ec0a7db28421264c6.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Not so, the 20C isotherm only just made it into the south east for the record breaking 10 August 2003:

image.thumb.jpg.a9fbba09c6fd041da62104b5d0486558.jpg

And back to now, this is one occasion you'd like to see the next couple of frames for the UKMO, here at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.efe6ad5d9a73e610fb7e6369d29a81cb.jpg

is the low going to be that close?  Time will tell. (T850s not out yet)

The day 6 UKMO is probably the 35C Maxima chart potentially for Friday

UW144-7.GIF?21-18

18C isotherm reaching the SE corner off the back of 30C being reached or beyond on the preceding four days. Very warm to hot everywhere though by the end of the week once that secondary system runs close to the west of Ireland during Wednesday.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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12 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I know the ground is very dry which will add a degree or two to maxes however the 38.5c was at the end of 9 or 10days above 30c and was supported by 850’s of 22/23c.

From the Met Office:

Hot spells, with consecutive maximum temperatures over 30 °C

During the long hot summer of 1976, temperatures exceeded 32 °C (90 °F), somewhere in the UK, on 15 consecutive days starting on 23 June. In 2003, 32 °C was exceeded on three consecutive days between 4 and 6 August and then on five consecutive days between 8 and 12 August, somewhere in the UK (temperatures failed to reach 32 °C at any of the real-time stations on 7 August).

So why didn't 1976 exceed 38.5...it was drier than 2003, and 32C was exceeded for a much longer duration? My guess is that there are other factors involved...if a two-day wonder can give us 98F (2015?), then I see no real reason at all why a seven-week hot spell shouldn't culminate in a record breaker?

Of course - that's not to say that it will...:D

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According to the Ukmo 12z..phew what a scorcher for the E / SE 🔥🔥🔥🔥

UW144-7.gif

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9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 

So why didn't 1976 exceed 38.5...it was drier than 2003, and 32C was exceeded for a much longer duration? My guess is that there are other factors involved...if a two-day wonder can give us 98F (2015?), then I see no real reason at all why a seven-week hot spell shouldn't culminate in a record breaker?

 

Global temperatures overall were lower then, so perhaps the UK temperature ceiling was lower?

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37 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Not so, the 20C isotherm only just made it into the south east for the record breaking 10 August 2003:

image.thumb.jpg.a9fbba09c6fd041da62104b5d0486558.jpg

And back to now, this is one occasion you'd like to see the next couple of frames for the UKMO, here at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.efe6ad5d9a73e610fb7e6369d29a81cb.jpg

is the low going to be that close?  Time will tell. (T850s not out yet)

Edit, they are now and this ones got a right nose on it! 

image.thumb.jpg.929be921d705c83ec0a7db28421264c6.jpg

Picky picky, but look closely add 22c comes into the south coast....

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G E M!  The plume comes into the reliable?  GEM 💎 T156:

image.thumb.jpg.82f0237513ccf8f6e43974c1287d5055.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.9cc4e62d6bdc37bed512d6a61ba9ee93.jpg

and still with backwestwardness to come, maybe, I think so!

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37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

).

So why didn't 1976 exceed 38.5...it was drier than 2003, and 32C was exceeded for a much longer duration? My guess is that there are other factors involved...if a two-day wonder can give us 98F (2015?), then I see no real reason at all why a seven-week hot spell shouldn't culminate in a record breaker?

 

Thicknesses?

Don't forget, the UK recorded a maximum higher on the 1st of July 2015 than anything recorded during the summer of 1976 and that was just a one day wonder with 36.7C 

Edited by Weather-history

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Well for us the GFS has been under doing the day time temperatures dunno about the rest of you so you could possibly add on 2C to that 34C shown. The heat has been embedded for a long time so this also helps temperatures go up.

Not a good week coming up for vulnerable people unfortunately. Hopefully the night time temperatures will be lower than those shown which so far here they have been. 

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8 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Thicknesses?

Don't forget, the UK recorded a maximum higher on the 1st of July 2015 than anything recorded during the summer of 1976 and that was just a one day wonder with 36.7C 

Indeed, Mr D!:good:

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Some posts are more suitable to the Summer thread, Please only discuss the Model Outputs in here.

Thankyou please continue.

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And 3 out of the last 4 GFS runs (I didn't watch the 0z) have led to some sort of plume (16C isotherm somewhere in British Isles) at some point, here's the 12z at T360:

image.thumb.jpg.3fb4ebc18d8ea93bbb245652858441a7.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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Gfs output is odd at the moment. Decreasing heat the closer we get to the event

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GFS 12z is hot pretty much all the way to the end, and has several plume type events.

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