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1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Even stronger winds along the North Sea coast as it exits Yorkshire. With spring tides and peak winds during Sunday evening, it poses quite a threat with storm surge potential. I’d rather see this binned off quickly! 

Rather have it than boring weather, rather have snow of course, either way im just not seeing this searing heat that other people think we are going to get, in there's any persistent blocking it will be with a quasi-stationary trough over the UK, IMO in a months time or so the Summer will seem a distant memory and we will be talking about rainfall totals and possible flooding.

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The weekend storm not guaranteed, GEM has a damp squib followers by a warm high pressure dominated spell, here T144:

image.thumb.jpg.8aaa345c2d2003172606605c90027bd1.jpg

Through to this by T240:

image.thumb.jpg.026172407dadfc541e974c1def650942.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.a928282b2d797d35b9504de6ee58d7ba.jpg

probably take a couple more days to have confidence about the weekend.

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Agreed feb 1991......Just blows me away these charts 🌪️ credibility, we'll see 🌪️

image.thumb.png.8bc39d26de29ff3241e01d0c7fc95bb2.pngimage.thumb.png.fd1da49a14c6a60444929f599cfe73c8.pngimage.thumb.png.c134172402646e0214806f3d9b87ae57.pngimage.thumb.png.852f9aaa169ca66403337e7d65d3b326.png

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Wow what an exciting chart from the Gfs 12z operational and it's actually a very action packed run...this would feel like winter across parts of scotland!:cold-emoji:😀❄❄❄

12_150_preciptype.png

12_150_uk2mtmp.png

12_150_ukthickness850.png

12_147_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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GFS is showing all these storms a month too early,september not known for this,january more like.

Rtavn1441.gif 

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Gfs going off on one I reckon.

A quick look at the 12z pressure ensembles shows a mean on that day of 1010mb. Some members have pressure at 1030mb, others down at 980mb....a 50mb spread. Crazy.

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The GEFS 12z mean indicates strong support for high pressure bringing generally benign pleasant conditions beyond this week, at least for the southern half of the uk.

21_198_500mb.png

21_222_500mb.png

21_246_500mb.png

21_270_500mb.png

21_318_500mb.png

21_360_500mb.png

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31 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

GFS is showing all these storms a month too early,september not known for this,january more like.

Rtavn1441.gif 

Nothing too unusual. It often becomes more unsettled in the second half of the month. Some years it's even been earlier like 2011, 2013 and 2017.

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Well the FV3 has the big low at the weekend, here T132:

image.thumb.jpg.bae96d9feb64376449f8cd0e2ab8ce78.jpg

But the ECM is having none of it, here T120 and T144:

image.thumb.jpg.d2f6bef45a3aff47a7c533807079aa86.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.5ec1f6b2ac2ea467a0204716d2043bcd.jpg

I'm siding with ECM for the moment while recognising considerable uncertainty.

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And it's a promising end to the ECM run for those who want late September warmth, here T240:

image.thumb.jpg.7bbcbd4560ed3c10dfcfcb5817f41c3f.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.cfa19a380f41f7d1689eaab956d9ecff.jpg

FV3 also has anticyclonic weather, the high centered further East at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.9a904d758d944e61e8dba328717273da.jpg

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2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Strong winds anyone?

138-289UK.GIF?17-12

It won't happen certainly not at those speeds, the amount of times GFS has over done a low in the last few years or so only to climb down. Not saying we won't get a low deepening close to the UK but be very surprised if this model has a handle on things...let's see what the ECM 12z says. To answer my own question (just seen the ECM) and says nope!

Edited by Froze were the Days

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Some stonking charts on offer on the CFS 12z run yesterday for cold in October, you wont get a more direct N'ly than this in Oct, normally the wave would develop earlier and thus cut off the flow earlier.

cfsnh-0-654_cpq3.pngcfsnh-0-690_qwm9.pngcfsnh-0-720_acm2.pngcfsnh-0-780_dye1.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Some stonking charts on offer on the CFS 12z run yesterday for cold in October, you wont get a more direct N'ly than this in Oct, normally the wave would develop earlier and thus cut off the flow earlier.

cfsnh-0-654_cpq3.pngcfsnh-0-690_qwm9.pngcfsnh-0-720_acm2.pngcfsnh-0-780_dye1.png

Come on really...CFSV2, I followed this model very closely last autumn and it was showing some stonkers for December and January (at times) and closer to the hour we know what happened :)

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That's an impressive finish to the Ecm 12z for those who are hoping for a warm anticyclonic end to september...out like a lamb 🐑?☀️🌡️:D

npsh500.240.png

ecm500.240.png

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5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Come on really...CFSV2, I followed this model very closely last autumn and it was showing some stonkers for December and January (at times) and closer to the hour we know what happened :)

It will do, because its run so often, where as most seasonal models are run much less often, so you have less runs so less wide a spread so less extremities. but equally what was it showing for 26th Feb - 3rd March and then mid March 2018 - I bet it didn't show anything as extreme until much closer.

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2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Rather have it than boring weather, rather have snow of course, either way im just not seeing this searing heat that other people think we are going to get, in there's any persistent blocking it will be with a quasi-stationary trough over the UK, IMO in a months time or so the Summer will seem a distant memory and we will be talking about rainfall totals and possible flooding.

I did think the Atlantic SST profile might produce a stonking thermal gradient this year but i muat admit its all a month earlier than i thought.

Beauty of a September storm.

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is pointing towards a more settled / anticyclonic late september, especially further south.

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

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12 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I did think the Atlantic SST profile might produce a stonking thermal gradient this year but i muat admit its all a month earlier than i thought.

Beauty of a September storm.

I do think that if the jet stream / sst temps remain like this any prospect of cold weather in winter is out of the question

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Evening All ! Gfs is sniffing out some really wild weather in the days ahead  Gfs does this really well !

h850t850eu-3.png

h850t850eu-4.png

h850t850eu-5.png

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What a villianous Low Pressure system the GFS 12Z is showing for Sunday. While the odd windstorm or two wouldn’t bother me, would not want that naughty boy to come off! 

EA06371C-EA76-49D2-97B3-BEB7894B0CDC.thumb.png.baf1aead380b54d99ec19929871c5332.png

382A4C77-0EAA-4857-B56E-043E1E660B95.thumb.png.57a2a6256d19bceacf8819fcebbd6df3.png

No support from the ECMWF 12Z.

19F98B22-5A59-46AB-81B7-6298C38E0F34.thumb.png.a9dad083398e45bdf868763c93b644bf.png

Probably the usual case of the GFS over doing Lows. But if it does come off, I’m gonna go into the Atlantic and beat it up! 

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2 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

What a villianous Low Pressure system the GFS 12Z is showing for Sunday. While the odd windstorm or two wouldn’t bother me, would not want that naughty boy to come off! 

EA06371C-EA76-49D2-97B3-BEB7894B0CDC.thumb.png.baf1aead380b54d99ec19929871c5332.png

382A4C77-0EAA-4857-B56E-043E1E660B95.thumb.png.57a2a6256d19bceacf8819fcebbd6df3.png

No support from the ECMWF 12Z.

19F98B22-5A59-46AB-81B7-6298C38E0F34.thumb.png.a9dad083398e45bdf868763c93b644bf.png

Probably the usual case of the GFS over doing Lows. But if it does come off, I’m gonna go into the Atlantic and beat it up! 

Overcooked  maybe but with so much latent energy out there it's only a matter of time before we get hammered 

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46 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

I do think that if the jet stream / sst temps remain like this any prospect of cold weather in winter is out of the question

A lot can change over the winter. If we see another SSW and a sudden collapse of the PV, then it can soon change very quickly, and we have seen how rapidly the continent can be plunged into a big freeze. If we didn’t have these charts and models, I wouldn’t have ever predicted the extreme cold that hit us at the end of feb this year. I have never felt such a cold wind in all my years of living, out on a night shift on the night of Feb 28th. It was actually quite weirdly warm just days before it hit. 

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6 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Overcooked  maybe but with so much latent energy out there it's only a matter of time before we get hammered 

Indeed! Has to happen at some point. Even tonight and into tomorrow morning looks (rather) stormy.  

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5 hours ago, bobbydog said:

Can't see it here Steve-

u_65N_10hpa.thumb.png.83596a5d54f2291042f7abf0ee3f8104.png

Looking around average.

That's H. Attard website. Where do you  see the dip to 5m/s? (which site I mean)

The Ensemble mean ( on the same site ) is near 100% agreement on the dip to now 6M/S (was 5)

Best

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