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24 minutes ago, cheese said:

That's my birthday - would be nice of mother nature to give me such a lovely gift. 😊

mine few days after yours, GFS 384 is 3 days before it

gfs-0-384.png?12

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates an improving picture for southern uk by the weekend into next week with increasingly warm fine weather as the azores ridge builds in but staying changeable and cooler across northern uk..Further ahead the ridging  persists close to the s / sw.☺ 

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48 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates an improving picture for southern uk by the weekend into next week with increasingly warm fine weather as the azores ridge builds in but staying changeable and cooler across northern uk..Further ahead the ridging  persists close to the s / sw.☺ 

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I always feel the area of trouble is the two lightest yellow lines. That's where the most active Atlantic stuff goes through. I note how those lines drift further and further south as D7 heads towards D10. 

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I have to say that looking at my trusty 500 mb anomaly charts there is little sign of any major shift in the upper air pattern in the next two weeks. Of course they may be wrong but it would be unusual for none of the three to not be hinting at some kind of change in the pattern they are currently showing.

That is for a fairly benign westerly pattern to persist. Individual days, maybe 48+ hours with a temporary ridge developing close by the UK but no indication of major heat returning. A NW-SE split is likely with the driest and warmest for the SE.

The links are below

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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15 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I have to say that looking at my trusty 500 mb anomaly charts there is little sign of any major shift in the upper air pattern in the next two weeks. Of course they may be wrong but it would be unusual for none of the three to not be hinting at some kind of change in the pattern they are currently showing.

That is for a fairly benign westerly pattern to persist. Individual days, maybe 48+ hours with a temporary ridge developing close by the UK but no indication of major heat returning. A NW-SE split is likely with the driest and warmest for the SE.

The links are below

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Fully agree, I don't think anyone has said there's another heatwave on the way, just occasional azores ridging further south, like the end of this week for example whereas northern uk, especially the far NW bears the brunt of the coolest most unsettled conditions..the predominant very warm settled pattern this summer is well and truly broken but I still think southern uk can look forward to some decent fine and warm spells, especially the southeast corner.☺

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Despite some attempts on some op runs to edge towards heatwave territory early next week, the percentage play remains as it has done for days - a few good days in the south before a front crosses around Tuesday. The clusters last night suggested this front may not actually developing as planned (that's how we might get the hotter runs) but most look like pushing a trough through shortly after this chart, which is for Monday 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018081312_168.

Further out, lack of a discernable pattern change, so still some settled and unsettled spells (the latter most frequent in the NW), but this chart for the Bank Holiday was an interesting first effort, two clusters with heights slightly lifted over most of the UK, and the third with a trough stalling to the SW (thunderstorms!) 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018081312_336.

Little sign of below average conditions aside a say or two in the next two weeks, anyway. 

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Just looks fairly average joe really - probably why there’s so little chat in here! The most boring period of the summer for sure. No one (well less people) are really interested in bang average weather, and that’s what we’re getting.

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Certainly seems that the weather has made fools of us again. A flat zonal pattern seemed like the most unlikely of outcomes a couple of weeks ago, yet here we are. We keep hearing that the models are playing catch up with regards to any ridging, yet this keeps getting pushed back.

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Modelling pretty agreeable for the weekend (and it’s a shame about the ex-tropical low looking likely to interrupt the drier spell for the central belt), but after that, I find any northward building of ridges west of the UK suspicious; as Tamara detailed yesterday, the interference of the CCKW promotes a flat westerly pattern until a Nino-style ridge can build through the UK and into Scandinavia. Not build west of the UK.

Modelling probably trying the mid-Atlantic option due to initiating the MJO too far west.

So while cooler air may well cross the UK again next week, there’s a good chance it will be for a shorter time than the morning model runs are suggesting.

 

Leaving the longer-term alone for now; models are yet to coherently move the MJO as far across the Pacific as anticipated. Hopefully they’re missing something there.

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Looking at the Gfs 6z operational..now that's autumnal!☔☔☔😄

06_252_mslp500.png

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06_276_uk2mtmp.png

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This morning's clusters on the whole favour a delay on next week's trough, generally now reaching us during Wednesday (better chance of heat)

 ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018081400_192.

The idea of NE heights for the BH weekend has grown, too

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018081400_300.

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1 hour ago, Badgers01 said:

Re above is it an outlier or a trendsetter ?

I would say it's an outlier, the GEFS 6z mean in that timeframe looks benign..back to the more reliable, this coming weekend and early next week looks better for southern uk as the azores ridge builds in across southern england so becoming predominantly fine and warm further south and then late august indicates increasing chance of high pressure becoming centred close to or over the uk..inbetween, more changeable with temperatures close to average..best chance of fine and warmer spells further s / se..most unsettled and coolest far NW.

Edited by Frosty.
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Not a bad Gfs 12z operational with plenty of high pressure / ridging across southern uk bringing predominantly fine and warm conditions with temperatures into the low to mid 20's celsius, even upper 20's c at times in the most favoured spots, sure there are a few cooler changeable blips but on this run the south / southeast does rather well compared to northern uk where most of the rain occurs along with the coolest temps although even the north has a few warm fine days here and there..bottom line is, it's better than the 6z!.☺

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Edited by Frosty.

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Yes not a bad GFS, plenty of fine, settled, quite warm weather for the south. More unsettled as ever further north, although even here high pressure ridges in at times. 

The UKMO makes more of that low on Sunday. Be interesting to see how that continues to be modelled over the days ahead. 

Edited by danm

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ECM keen on an Atlantic high later next week. Would be quite cool witht the best weather out west. 

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4 minutes ago, danm said:

ECM keen on an Atlantic high later next week. Would be quite cool witht the best weather out west. 

Pretty close to a breakdown free ECM! Also much better further north in general. Still, ensembles this morning were 50/50 between something like this and a less settled outlook after next Tuesday, so wait for the morning? 

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GFS 12z finally saw the mid-Atlantic pattern being flattened out, which makes sense to me, but sadly ECM and UKMO haven't followed suit.

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member.gi       

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

The MJO projections are getting there, though - albeit some more readily than others.

GEFS has made a large adjustment that sees the enhanced convection barely even die out the Pacific before an MJO initiation in phase 4 (only one away now!) with eastward propagation then getting going nicely, especially in the bias-adjusted case, but the unadjusted EPS are being more stubborn with keeping a phase 3 initiation on their cards and are also less decided on initiating the MJO in the first place.

 

Should the actual outcome be near or at the fast, eastward (phase 5 or even 6) end of the current spread, it will be educational to see how this interacts with the CCKW that's gone and caused so much trouble.

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9 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Just looks fairly average joe really - probably why there’s so little chat in here! The most boring period of the summer for sure. No one (well less people) are really interested in bang average weather, and that’s what we’re getting.

But milder than average temps...in the south/south east anyway. (What's new)?...synoptically large spells of this summer from June to mid-July haven't exactly been exciting either.

Edited by Froze were the Days

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15 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

But milder than average temps...in the south/south east anyway. (What's new)?...synoptically large spells of this summer from June to mid-July haven't exactly been exciting either.

Synoptically perhaps not....but when you have the driest first half of summer recorded, the third warmest July on record and one of the warmest may and June’s too it makes up for it!

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Evening All...! Looks interesting viewing from the Atlantic this coming weekend , no detail as present but one which could make some places very wet...according to the ecm and gfs.😨

Daffy.png

daffyx.png

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17 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All...! Looks interesting viewing from the Atlantic this coming weekend , no detail as present but one which could make some places very wet...according to the ecm and gfs.😨

Daffy.png

daffyx.png

Got to agree with this, nearly posted it myself, sigh, another wet Sunday coming up

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Pub run also showing a mid Atlantic high later next week with low pressure to the NE giving a cooler NW'rly airflow. 

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