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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Here's the 12z suite at T144, showing significant uncertainty, there certainty about the UK high at T120.  Here GFS, GEM, UKMO, ICON, ECM and FV3:

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Only the last really following the script, interesting to see the next couple of runs as to how this evolves, uncertain after the weekend. 

 

 

The evolution of that low for early next week appears to have the models baffled. We are a little way off forecasting next Tuesday and beyond in too great a detail. I still think it's very unwise to write off the plume. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 minute ago, Singularity said:

Good question, it’s based on the lectures and book content I attended and studied at university, and relates to the data assimilation process.

There are times, though, when the models propagate a new tropical signal too fast, leading to those ‘jumping then gun’ moments.

 

Interesting ECM 12z - much more in line with recent GFS output out to early next week, then sorry of like the GFS 06z except for a lot of unconvincing vagueness - looks like a model in the process of adjusting to corrected forcing patterns...

Thanks, very interesting! 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

That heat to the south dangles like a giant tease (Or giant guillotine depending on your preferences) but it seems the jetstream across the Atlantic looks too flat to pull the hottest air towards us, the ECM pretty much stalls the line of the hottest air in the same place for most of the run.

Friday looking like the hottest day for now, again 32c (90F) looks like being breached.

arpegeuk-41-75-0.png?31-18

The low south of Greenland looks like it could begin to dig southwards this coming weekend but it seems to end up going straight east through any developing ridging with varied outcomes depending on the model you chose to look at. It still looks pretty fine and warm until possibly the middle of next week with 30C reached possibly on every day from Thursday onwards to day 10 depending on your model output of choice.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There's a lot to like about the Ecm 12z for those of us who want more very warm / hot largely settled weather with high pressure / strong ridging in control..southern areas look like seeing hot temps in the high 20's to low 30's c again during the coming days.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

A great run from the ECM- there's a good chance this settled weather could continue for some time. This summer isn't over by a long shot! Plenty to be positive about with a cracking weekend to come too. Fine and warm weather is still the form horse.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

As we enter the last third of this amazing meteorological summer,  tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows more great weather (very warm / hot and predominantly settled) on the way, especially for the southern half the uk. Even by day 10, the azores ridge is still close enough to influence our weather..more very summery surface conditions to look forward to in the days ahead..becoming hot across the s / se.

EDM1-48.gif

EDM1-96.gif

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EDM1-120.gif

EDM1-144.gif

EDM0-144.gif

EDM1-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Think we should stick to the models in here.  

ICON 18z looks a move to the plume scenario at T120 (end of run) here with 12z at same time, 18z first:

image.thumb.jpg.84cdb868208fbaca72f7918fb9d258de.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.b262083c29457b9b10f6746dca955508.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Think we should stick to the models in here.  

ICON 18z looks a move to the plume scenario at T120 (end of run) here with 12z at same time, 18z first:

image.thumb.jpg.84cdb868208fbaca72f7918fb9d258de.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.b262083c29457b9b10f6746dca955508.jpg

What is the difference in 850s between 12z and 18z!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Pub run also heading for the plume, T144:

image.thumb.jpg.a97b0d0c8bbff54ae455fc770b8652c1.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.12d9177bdf4b37024d94ab36fe4bca4b.jpg

Maybe heading for similar to the 12z FV3, I think the models are starting to smell the sugar free Red Bull!

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
5 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Slightly further afield... has the heat in Iberia broken the ARPEGE's scale over Portugal? 

On Wetterzentrale, the max is 51C that day in Portugal!

GFSOPSP18_93_48.png

The previous record temp set there in 2003 was 47.4C for reference. The European record is 48.0C aswell. If that's accurate and taking into account GFS often underdoes temperatures, its going to blow the previous record out of the water. Its very dangerous heat too. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

All main models this morning are more keen to bring the 16C uppers line to the UK by Tuesday, with the ECM nearly getting the 20C line to the Kent coast by the end of the day. This would probably mean surface temps well into the 90Fs. However, still a lot of volatility in the models for that timeframe. 

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

All main models this morning are more keen to bring the 16C uppers line to the UK by Tuesday, with the ECM nearly getting the 20C line to the Kent coast by the end of the day. This would probably mean surface temps well into the 90Fs. However, still a lot of volatility in the models for that timeframe. 

So that would lessen record maxima breaking chances given the hottest air not being during the daytime!? Opportunity for a minima record though.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

gefsens850london0.png

Ensembles still haven't completely dismissed the idea of a major heat injection (18-20c 850s) between the 7th-9th....lots of uncertainty and noise though. I mean look at the 8th August, one member says 20c, a couple of others say 4c! Just a bit of a difference!
 

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
39 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

So that would lessen record maxima breaking chances given the hottest air not being during the daytime!? Opportunity for a minima record though.

Yes that could be the case - to get the record, I think we need more of a southerly dig at T120 from the incoming low. Happens many a time! 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Slightly longer term but the models seem to be looking much more settled this morning. Gone is the U.K. trough on the GFS and Scandi low on the ECM.

Maybe some were a little too quick to jump onto the unsettled bandwagon yesterday?

Still a fair bit of ensemble scatter though, so still some uncertainty.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
13 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Slightly longer term but the models seem to be looking much more settled this morning. Gone is the U.K. trough on the GFS and Scandi low on the ECM.

Maybe some were a little too quick to jump onto the unsettled bandwagon yesterday?

Still a fair bit of ensemble scatter though, so still some uncertainty.

Agree 100% percent with that, Dj...You are clearly a master of the understatement, too!:drinks:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
22 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Slightly longer term but the models seem to be looking much more settled this morning. Gone is the U.K. trough on the GFS and Scandi low on the ECM.

Maybe some were a little too quick to jump onto the unsettled bandwagon yesterday?

Still a fair bit of ensemble scatter though, so still some uncertainty.

Completely agree, I've been saying this for days now and a couple of people jumped on me for saying it. Dry and settled weather is still the form horse, and there is increasing consensus for this hot spell among the op runs this morning- I wouldn't be surprised if Wednesday ends up hot for most of the UK as well- we often tend to eek out another hot day in these plume type scenarios to what is originally modelled.

ECM looking great throughout- a bit cooler after midweek but the Azores high seemingly keen to build in afterwards again. This summer is a long way from over.

Write off Summer 2018 at your peril.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

im guilty of committing the cardinal sin when viewing these charts.... making assumptions based on 1 run, when the basic rule for employing these is 'consistency'. besides that theres not much ridging on that chart, and theres a decent westerly upper flow.

ill not hide away... i was wrong.

You’re not wrong just yet though. Let’s see if this evening’s runs back up this morning’s.

The anomaly charts HAVE been good this summer, but it shows that no method in isolation can be totally relied upon.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

im guilty of committing the cardinal sin when viewing these charts.... making assumptions based on 1 run, when the basic rule for employing these is 'consistency'. besides that theres not much ridging on that chart, and theres a decent westerly upper flow.

ill not hide away... i was wrong.

You were only saying what it showed. Fair play! I don't think there'd be any discussion on here for the current D6-D10 if we needed consistency before posting :)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
10 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

im guilty of committing the cardinal sin when viewing these charts.... making assumptions based on 1 run, when the basic rule for employing these is 'consistency'. besides that theres not much ridging on that chart, and theres a decent westerly upper flow.

ill not hide away... i was wrong.

We all do that, mushy...If I want to use a chart, in order to clarify what I'm on about, I always opt for the one that expresses my thoughts most succinctly, and I think it might be a form of confirmation bias? Consciously or otherwise, we all have it, IMO?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM shows another short burst of heat towards the far south mid next week

ECMOPUK00_168_2.thumb.png.2d5086928a140fa08dcbd17939d0bc11.png

Settled and slightly fresher temps then follow with no sign of a major change away from the settled conditions yet

ECMOPEU00_216_1.thumb.png.d1243a0349b41fcf4ac14a630983915f.pngECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.bcd1675086d3c80edf21f7a090dd42c4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester

Morning all.

On that point, yep there is a need for looking at multiple runs to get consistency to a degree, but the latest runs are always the most likely to be nearer the outcome for a given timeframe, unless less acurate/sparser data is fed in.

Gfs op looking great if you like heat - on and off theres been a cut off low forming that then sits out to the west in bob/biscay - notoriousely difficult for models to handle, but currently this looks to keep the heat incoming at the backend of next week on the 06z. 

To get a hot thundery august would propell summer 2018 to the top spot for me personaly! I think the potential is there, and models are starting to favour a better fight between atlantic and continental heat.. 

 

Samos

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