Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[feb1991blizzard]

The Northerly in GFS FI the other day has popped up on the ECM at 240, a proper retrogression underway here.

[Nick F]

Well if the nasty storm GFS keeps progging for Sunday comes off, EC not as deep and further north but still very windy and wet, at least the models are in unison in bringing a strong ridge of high pressure in on the back of Sunday's system - which may persist throughout next week. 

[Yarmy]

It's times like this that it's frustrating we can't see anything smaller than the 24hr steps of the ECM and UKMO. The crucial period IMBY is T114 as that is 8pm on Sunday and high tide. There is still huge variation in the GEFS:

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=114

Indeed, some perturbs have no storm at all. A significant number though, like the op and control, have the storm centre right off the coast of East Anglia, the worst possible place.

I'm not sure we are quite in 1953 territory, because that one formed south of Iceland and tracked slowly down the east coast which presumably enhanced the tidal surge. It still looks bad though.

Edited September 19, 2018 by Yarmy

[johnholmes]

Well all 3 main  models do have a storm that crosses the southern half of the UK into the N Sea/adjacent continent. However, a lot of differences in the track and depth to be sorted in a very short time. The 500 mb anomaly charts from a week ago look more accurate than the ones I used yesterday. They (yesterday issues) have a marked 500 mb ridge about where the storm will be on Monday so are quite wrong. Two days later as the ridge builds then okay.

The wonders of modern meteorology!

High tide at Bridlington Sunday is 2205, 5.04 metres, a bit less than Saturday.

Edited September 19, 2018 by johnholmes

[carinthian]

7 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Well all 3 main  models do have a storm that crosses the southern half of the UK into the N Sea/adjacent continent. However, a lot of differences in the track and depth to be sorted in a very short time. The 500 mb anomaly charts from a week ago look more accurate than the ones I used yesterday. They (yesterday issues) have a marked 500 mb ridge about where the storm will be on Monday so are quite wrong. Two days later as the ridge builds then okay.

The wonders of modern meteorology!

High tide at Bridlington Sunday is 2205, 5.04 metres, a bit less than Saturday.

Hi John, just back from a long trip out to Vancouver, so just checking up on things back home. Had a chat this morning with our portal forecast providers for resort and their thoughts on the track of the Sunday storm are very much undecided at this stage but are aware of its potential to produce some stormy conditions into the Low countries and Northern Germany. At this stage only the passage of the storm will produce changes here in the Alps, where currently, its very benign and warm. One thing they are sure on is a strong rise of pressure over Western Europe by mid -week, similar to that shown on the latest UKMO model as indicated by you and Nick. Hope all is well at home.

C

[Frosty hollows]

9 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, I really don't see the point of talking about weather if your just interested in it from a sunbathing point of view, cant think of anything more boring than sitting next to a pool in spain just lying down.

Didn't say anything about sunbathing-  doesn't interest me in the slightest.Just don't have any desire to repeat the experience of being on the path of such dangerous, destructive weather. Happy for others to be thrill seekers, but not for me!

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Didn't say anything about sunbathing-  doesn't interest me in the slightest.Just don't have any desire to repeat the experience of being on the path of such dangerous, destructive weather. Happy for others to be thrill seekers, but not for me!

OK - anyway back to the models and the ECM mean at 240 is not too shabby, it shows signs of the retrogression signal on the op - this is the first time any ensemble suite has showed interest in it.

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Sky Full said:

Some people are concerned that there might be a hurricane coming....don't worry, there isn't......        

 The winds over the central UK are only shown to be gusting up to 75mph....

Sky Full...

The thing to notice about this chart (and what we need to watch) is that the wind is coming from the NNE or NE.

The event people are concerning themselves with  (1952) was more of a straight N or NNE.

If this comes off as shown it could actually push more surges against the English coastline.

However. in mitigation, it will not produce the tidal surge to the NE of Scotland, that was caused by the low tracking down from Iceland and  was such a part of the earlier event..

It does require watching though!

MIA 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Support really gathering pace now for some big convective snow showers N'ly / NE'ly this Autumn.

[claret047]

24 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Sky Full...

The thing to notice about this chart (and what we need to watch) is that the wind is coming from the NNE or NE.

The event people are concerning themselves with  (1952) was more of a straight N or NNE.

If this comes off as shown it could actually push more surges against the English coastline.

However. in mitigation, it will not produce the tidal surge to the NE of Scotland, that was caused by the low tracking down from Iceland and  was such a part of the earlier event..

It does require watching though!

MIA 

 

Hello MIA,

I was wondering the same thing. Thankfullly I am well away from the east coast and so flooding for me should not be an issue. Parts of my county suffered badly in that storm to which you refer with much loss of life. For anyone interested there is a very good book obtainable from the Essex Record Office entitled The Great Tide by Hilda Grieve that chronicles events up to during and after the storm surge.

As far as the models show for the next week it looks like calm after the storm with a ridge developing and hopefully remaining insitu for the remainder of the week. Typical autumnal weather.

Kind  Regards

Dave 

[Derecho]

If anything the storm is even nastier on the 06z GFS and also further south.

  

 

Ouch

[Sky Full]

26 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

If anything the storm is even nastier on the 06z GFS and also further south.

  

 

Ouch

The first wind speed chart you posted shows sustained winds in my location up to 70mph+ - never mind the gusts.  Some structural damage would be guaranteed.  These then move east across central and southern England.  I'm hoping this is going to downgrade substantially before the weekend.   

[Yarmy]

Meanwhile, the ICON 6z has virtually no cyclogenesis whatsoever:

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Meanwhile, the ICON 6z has virtually no cyclogenesis whatsoever:

One can only hope! The fact that the GFS has been so persistent with this storm and that the ECM and UKMO seem to be falling in line it has got me worried.

Has the GFS got this cyclogenisis right, or is it slipping back into its old ways?....

[feb1991blizzard]

There's an even better storm at 264 just south of Newfoundland, damaging gusts.

[BleakMidwinter]

11 hours ago, Frosty hollows said:

Really? It went slap bang over my flat in 1987 and it was horrific! I was petrified, but unlike my neighbours ended up with an intact roof. Wouldn't want to repeat it, or wish it on my worst enemy 

Yes, I've never forgotten being in my folks' house in Edinburgh (1 mile from weather station that recorded it) when the 102mph gust literally ripped a (closed) cast-iron Victorian skylight out of the roof. It buckled the frame, snapped the hinges and pulled the slates off all round, leaving a great big hole in what had been my childhood attic bedroom. 
We were also quite glad none of us had been in the garden, and that nobody was in the primary school playground beyond, when the bits of cast iron and glass rained down, too... 

That was 'Hurricane Bawbag' in Dec 2011.

Quite some weather we're having this week, though!

[shaky]

37 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Meanwhile, the ICON 6z has virtually no cyclogenesis whatsoever:

Same model had a storm similar to gfs on the last 00z run this morning!!could go down to the wire this!!

[Man With Beard]

43 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Meanwhile, the ICON 6z has virtually no cyclogenesis whatsoever:

but notice how a little storm is developing near the SE. It's one of many options. I looked through the ECM ensembles and there are so many ways this could yet develop. Yes, intensification in the North Sea is perhaps just the favourite, but equally many ensembles have the west coast favoured (earlier intensification), and a few even take the storm through the channel, making it a south coast event. And a few still do not develop the storm at all. 

The latest GFS is very bad for inland areas of England - the darkest shade is 80mph, well inland:

With trees still in full leaf, there's going to be a lot of disruption if it develops like this. Thankfully it's a Sunday night, the quietest part of the week.

[weirpig]

21 minutes ago, shaky said:

Same model had a storm similar to gfs on the last 00z run this morning!!could go down to the wire this!!

Indeed still alot to resolve.  Friday early hours  also looks very troublesome  with the Arpege and icon really cranking up the winds.   exciting weather at last.  winds touching 80mph in places  ouch

Edited September 19, 2018 by weirpig

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

Well, we're now just getting into a hi-res model timeframe with regards to Sunday's 'possible' storm. Latest Arpege doesn't develop the low as much on arrival into the UK & Ireland (central air pressure about 1000mb) winds nowhere near as strong either but still it's a day to keep a close eye on 

[Bob G]

Met office warning now out for Sunday:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-09-23

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Bob G said:

Met office warning now out for Sunday:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-09-23

Only mentions slight risk of loss of life due to flying debris so they cant think its as bad as the near term storms.

[Jimmyh]

I thought Feb it was an interesting first line actually. I must say though its a fascinating section of model watching and possible model fatigue of will it wont it scenario....

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

I thought Feb it was an interesting first line actually. I must say though its a fascinating section of model watching and possible model fatigue of will it wont it scenario....

HERE IS THE FULL DESCRIPTION.

During Sunday there is the potential for a deep area of low pressure to develop and track over the UK bringing a spell of very strong winds and heavy rain. At this stage developments are very uncertain but there is a small chance of disruptive winds developing with parts of England and Wales currently looking most at risk. Any strong winds should gradually clear eastwards early on Monday with more settled conditions looking likely to follow next week

[Sparkiee storm]

38 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Indeed still alot to resolve.  Friday early hours  also looks very troublesome  with the Arpege and icon really cranking up the winds.   exciting weather at last.  winds touching 80mph in places  ouch

Yeah saw this, wondering why not many others have seen it, a short but intense area of winds ranging from 60 to 85mph around the Midlands early hours Friday, could be quite damaging with some of these gusts, and coupled that with heavy rain most of the day may make the ground softer.