Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[Derecho]

As feared the storm for Sunday is rapidly gaining support, the only way I can see it being avoided is if the remnants of Florence move more slowly across the Atlantic then forecast. Still a distinct possibility it may stay out west with high pressure allowed to build over the UK as early as Sunday if this was the case... but the stormy solution is what I see being the most likely option.

It may not be as severe as some previous GFS runs have suggested but severe gales are a possibility,

I think I may have to call off the fishing trip for Sunday....

Edited September 18, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[Catacol]

23 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Chris Fawkes has shown the non stormy outcome on the bbc extended tonight - but did mention that a number of models showed the storm.....so lots to sort out. Strange that we keep seeing these rapidly deepening lows so close to the UK.

Relative AAM tendency still running a positive gradient, and ocean temps out west will be conducive to low pressure development as others have mentioned. Factor in a fragile looking jet (some impact of low solar?) and we have a recipe for sharp swings. AAM tendency will not favour a flat pattern, so ridging very much in the mix...and consequently also systems within troughs are likely to develop well, especially if of tropical origin.

It's all pretty good watching....especially as September is often a rather quiet month for weather watching. Skimming a few of the other threads I'm left of the same opinion as others, namely that early signs for the winter season ahead are anything but dull looking. The vortex looks likely to be slow in taking off....solar factors are in favour, eQBO is holding on by its finger tips, ENSO is neutral to slightly positive (better profile than last year probably) and the huge melt of ice on the European side of the arctic may favour significant blocking through the autumn right where we might want it to promote snow and cold build up over Russia. Very early days, but despite a statistical correlation for a lower probably of a SSW this season compared to last other drivers may work effectively to produce a good season.

Still waiting for rain here, but I dont think it will be far off now. Summer at an end even in the SW.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening! Gfs the king of models at the moment... the Storm for the weekend will make this September one of the stormiest for many years...Gfs has constantly for days now shown this evolution , Ecm has been pitiful in its output....The Gfs has shown for days now some damaging winds , flooding rain and Yes some very early snowfall for Northern Uk,  A Storm to be watched.....

[feb1991blizzard]

Storm there again on the 18z GFS - an absolute corker!

[Allseasons-Si]

I think we should factor in the higher sst's  around the BI thanks to a prolonged summer,that will(i think) aid more in the way of cyclogenesis

the 18z gfs is at it again,this is worrying times as much as i would like to see it happen but the other half of me would not want it to happen cos i fear there could be a fatality or two if it was to come off

this could be dangerous.

 

Edited September 18, 2018 by Allseasons-si
spell check

[Allseasons-Si]

5 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the FAX charts at 12Z Saturday?! 

UKMO & FAX, respectively:

 

A good few differences there..

And the latest ukmo fax chart for 12:00 sunday

the gfs has been bang on the money,if it still comes off but it has been consistant the last few days.

 

Edited September 18, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And the latest ukmo fax chart for 12:00 sunday

 

Not as deep or threatening by the looks on the fax chart, my other slight criticism of this storm is I would prefer the isobars to be tightest on the SE flank like Oct 16th 1987, I would love to see a really potent sting jet occur slap bang over my house.

[Allseasons-Si]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not as deep or threatening by the looks on the fax chart, my other slight criticism of this storm is I would prefer the isobars to be tightest on the SE flank like Oct 16th 1987, I would love to see a really potent sting jet occur slap bang over my house.

Lol

the storm is only aproaching N Ireland/West Scotland on that chart and is further north than the gfs and later,where as the storm(center is over east anglia) on the gfs,there will be a lot of fine tweaking/timing to come nearer the event that's for sure.

both for 120 hrs

Edited September 18, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[bobbydog]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not as deep or threatening by the looks on the fax chart, my other slight criticism of this storm is I would prefer the isobars to be tightest on the SE flank like Oct 16th 1987, I would love to see a really potent sting jet occur slap bang over my house.

The Met office complaints department should deal with that for you. Though you do need to subscribe to their premium service if you want a sting jet over your house... 

[Frosty hollows]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not as deep or threatening by the looks on the fax chart, my other slight criticism of this storm is I would prefer the isobars to be tightest on the SE flank like Oct 16th 1987, I would love to see a really potent sting jet occur slap bang over my house.

Really? It went slap bang over my flat in 1987 and it was horrific! I was petrified, but unlike my neighbours ended up with an intact roof. Wouldn't want to repeat it, or wish it on my worst enemy 

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs ends with a split flow over the pole....again,been a re-occuring theme from the gfs.

Edited September 18, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

Last but not least - a butterfly!

 

I came out of hibernation early and thought It wouldn't last but the modeling has been fantastic over the last week or so, really enjoyable watching and interesting setups, I really do think that there is going to be a lot of severe weather events in the near future not just here but aaround thee world, very interesting viewing coming up for severe weather fans, of course snow is always number 1 but storms are still a good buzz when they are more than just a breeze that is

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Really? It went slap bang over my flat in 1987 and it was horrific! I was petrified, but unlike my neighbours ended up with an intact roof. Wouldn't want to repeat it, or wish it on my worst enemy 

Yes, I really don't see the point of talking about weather if your just interested in it from a sunbathing point of view, cant think of anything more boring than sitting next to a pool in spain just lying down.

[Allseasons-Si]

The control and the mean at 120.

[Cheshire Freeze]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The control and the mean at 120.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Gosh, that 18Z GEFS ensemble member No. 1 looks particularly scary!  Would definitely get thrown out of the galaxy if that happened.

Going to be interesting to see what both the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF show. I suspect that bad boy will still be showing. But who knows!

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Wind gusts look pretty devastating for the SE on the 0z GFS

This is after giving some other areas of the UK a battering a few hours earlier

[philglossop]

5 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, I really don't see the point of talking about weather if your just interested in it from a sunbathing point of view, cant think of anything more boring than sitting next to a pool in spain just lying down.

I lived through that night in October 1987 and more importantly here the daytime storm January 1990, and trust me- you don’t want to be under that sting when it happens. We all like weather and storms/snow but when it’s endangering your life or you are scared and hope you’ll live like previous poster highlighted, you wouldn’t be so flippant.

 

Anyway- this is ironically looking more like a January 1990 type storm, incoming from the SW in the morning before zipping through- that storm caused gusts over 100mph on Dartmoor but hopefully it’ll miss the high tide on East coast. But I doubt it worryingly 

[mulzy]

7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not as deep or threatening by the looks on the fax chart, my other slight criticism of this storm is I would prefer the isobars to be tightest on the SE flank like Oct 16th 1987, I would love to see a really potent sting jet occur slap bang over my house.

You truly are nuts!  Oct 1987 caused huge destruction and brought significant misery to many. We do NOT want that!

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Wind gusts look pretty devastating for the SE on the 0z GFS

This is after giving some other areas of the UK a battering a few hours earlier

That area of force 12 winds is back on the 00Z, sweeping down from Northumberland down to Norfork during Sunday night. 

This is still some way off though - intensities may change yet. 

[Sky Full]

7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not as deep or threatening by the looks on the fax chart, my other slight criticism of this storm is I would prefer the isobars to be tightest on the SE flank like Oct 16th 1987, I would love to see a really potent sting jet occur slap bang over my house.

That would be great!  If it's over your house, that means it's not over my house.   So I'm crossing my fingers for you!  I'm also hoping that the models are correct about the settled period which is predicted to follow next week, because you'll need a few days to get your roof repaired.  You might want to think about hiring a generator because you probably won't have any power.  We lost power for six days in October 1987 with part of the roof off and a tree resting on the car.

[Sky Full]

Some people are concerned that there might be a hurricane coming....don't worry, there isn't......        

 The winds over the central UK are only shown to be gusting up to 75mph....

[NO LONGER POSTING]

9 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Some people are concerned that there might be a hurricane coming....don't worry, there isn't......        

 The winds over the central UK are only shown to be gusting up to 75mph....

Only... Been a long time from when we last had 70mph in my part of the world. 

What's also odd is the high RES models have increased wind speeds tomorrow too for the south and now looks a real chance of some gales on the southern coast... 

With such a sharp temperature gradient set up out in the Atlantic between cold and warm air it's no suprise to see lows barrelling in. 

What I do like the look of though is we have to sacrifice a bad week for what is looking like a fantastic week next.. 

Give and take I suppose, mother nature likes to keep us on our toes 

[Team Jo]

Morning chaps.

Model discussion in here please, there’s a thread a plenty for historical weather chat and preferences and all that kind of thing.

merci!

 

 

[Danielvn]

8 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, I really don't see the point of talking about weather if your just interested in it from a sunbathing point of view, cant think of anything more boring than sitting next to a pool in spain just lying down.

Someone can probably just delete my reply, sorry!

Edited September 19, 2018 by Danielvn