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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Never mind long term...this weekend could be very interesting.  ECM having none of it....but doesn’t mean it’s right by any means 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Could be some extremely wild / wet weather this weekend, the Gfs 12z operational even indicates a risk of hill snow in scotland..nice to see the blue 850's on the map to give coldies a little taste of what's to come in the months ahead!:cold-emoji: ☔❄ 

12_120_preciptype.png

12_132_ukthickness850.png

12_123_windvector_gust.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well, this is getting interesting, GFS relentless with this 'mega storm' but UKMO, GEM and ICON failing to develop it on the 12s.  

Its interesting that the parallel FV3 is also consistently going for it though here 6z at T126 and 12z at T120:

image.thumb.jpg.67222b9c784a1e7afb3a92a5576b9f8f.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.fa3d6915ac3aac5e9748313f800c5f63.jpg

Wind gusts from the 12z same time:

image.thumb.jpg.dbbfc81c163917152d642e54e48d0838.jpg

It's interesting because the GFS and FV3 are different models but fed by the same data.

ECM 12z at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.81648c9690ec0d7c48656816125ab258.jpg

Moving to GFS.  Oh dear!

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

The ECM 12z following the GFS . Never thought I would say this but hats off to the GFS. That's if it does come off as predicted. I do remember the GFS (when we had the beast from the east) it picked up a low coming in from the west and no other model showed it and we all said no that won't happen but it did and sort of ended the cold spell . Will it come out on top again ?? 

IMG_2568.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Looks like a dual between the GFS/Parallel F3V/ECMWF vs  UKMO/GEM/ICON. One of the teams is going to end up with egg and bacon on their faces!

(But then a half-way solution with a partly stormy Low is always possible for Sunday).

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
4 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Looks like a dual between the GFS/Parallel F3V/ECMWF vs  UKMO/GEM/ICON. One of the teams is going to end up with egg and bacon on their faces!

(But then a half-way solution with a partly stormy Low is always possible for Sunday).

Well, if the GFS is correct, walk out Sunday morning and you could end up with a flying roof tile on your face.

Glad I'm off work because I walk in.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
11 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Quite chilly 850s at T144 on the ECM . Nice . 

IMG_2569.PNG

Horrible - give us cold in Winter, not in September!

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Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
13 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Quite chilly 850s at T144 on the ECM . Nice . 

IMG_2569.PNG

❄️ Great stuff....about time!!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Surprised no one has commented on how odd the evolution on the ecm looks from 120-144??

In Northern Ireland the pressure goes from 985mb at 120 hours to 1035mb at 144 hours!! An increase of 50mb in 24 hours? Never seen anything like that in my life. Can anyone say if this has happened anywhere before??! Seems very strange to me!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Any road, it seems that the weekends uncertainty notwithstanding, the settled outlook for next week follows on straight behind on ECM, here T168 and T240:

image.thumb.jpg.c3c21777a765a7c8bd8af2a0b6361570.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.0b82a4233093e7d11fb04012b31d72c9.jpg

So as it stands it's one of those weird situations where the forecast at day 7-10 looks more certain than at day 5!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Very good recovery after sunday's storm from the Ecm 12z with high pressure becoming the dominant feature, feeling very pleasant in the sunshine and light winds but with some chilly nights bringing a risk of mist / fog patches.

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

240_thickuk.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 

So as it stands it's one of those weird situations where the forecast at day 7-10 looks more certain than at day 5!

which always make me think if the evolution before is not sorted how can it be more certain later!?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
11 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

which always make me think if the evolution before is not sorted how can it be more certain later!?

I think it can happen, but not often, when there is uncertainty over the precise conditions over the UK locally (and a storm or lack of it is one such instance) but the larger scale evolution is less uncertain, and I wonder if that is what we have here.

Let's put it this way, I'm more confident about next weeks settled spell than I am about the storm, at the moment.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
33 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The ECM 12z following the GFS . Never thought I would say this but hats off to the GFS. That's if it does come off as predicted. I do remember the GFS (when we had the beast from the east) it picked up a low coming in from the west and no other model showed it and we all said no that won't happen but it did and sort of ended the cold spell . Will it come out on top again ?? 

IMG_2568.PNG

ECM not quite as strong as the GFS for the UK - the key thing here is the storm peaks over Ireland with 90mph coastal gusts there - then slowly declines over the UK, with gusts falling to 70mph around English/Welsh coasts, with 80mph gusts flirting with the E Coast but never actually making it.

It matters not one jot. The main issue for now is that all of the GFS, ECM and UKMO have given us at least one op run with I guess what you'd call explosive cyclogenesis over the UK, and inside T144. Somewhere is in danger of a hit. In the next 48 hours we'll start to work out where.

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I think it can happen, but not often, when there is uncertainty over the precise conditions over the UK locally (and a storm or lack of it is one such instance) but the larger scale evolution is less uncertain, and I wonder if that is what we have here.

I get what your saying but I think its uncertain all the way until this weekends will it won't it storm is resolved...

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
32 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well, if the GFS is correct, walk out Sunday morning and you could end up with a flying roof tile on your face.

Glad I'm off work because I walk in.

if the GFS is correct, walk out sunday morning and you'll end up landing somewhere near Denmark!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, high pressure is the form next week with a predominantly fine spell across most of the uk, especially further south but then signs of a change to atlantic weather around the turn of the month.

21_168_500mb.png

21_192_500mb.png

21_216_500mb.png

21_264_500mb.png

21_342_500mb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Sleet and snow showers over high ground - recurrent theme. so an extremely appropriate thread title!

cfsnh-0-792_lif4.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is also pointing towards an anticyclonic spell next week following a potentially stormy sunday..a  generally fine late september looks increasingly likely for most areas, more especially further south.☺☀️

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Chris Fawkes has shown the non stormy outcome on the bbc extended tonight - but did mention that a number of models showed the storm.....so lots to sort out. Strange that we keep seeing these rapidly deepening lows so close to the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Sub 961 depression anywhere nearby
  • Location: Reading

If ECM is on the right track for Sunday then the storm surge team at Met Office will be waking up as that low crosses east coast bang on a spring tide

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