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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
31 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The Ensemble mean ( on the same site ) is near 100% agreement on the dip to now 6M/S (was 5)

Best

8 m/s on the latest run Steve.

epsmean10hPa60N.png

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
3 hours ago, MP-R said:

Nothing too unusual. It often becomes more unsettled in the second half of the month. Some years it's even been earlier like 2011, 2013 and 2017.

Unsettled yes,its been unsettled since august 10th.

Those years mentioned nothing like severe gales had stronger winds in summer to any September eg 2007 summer.

I`ve never yet recorded anything wind wise in September anything notable yet up to a gale but no damage.Rrea00120040912.gif

What GFS is showing for sunday which won`t happen but Friday even would break that,sundays would be an extreme storm even for winter,massive storm surge east coast and fooding.

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
2 hours ago, Leo97t said:

I do think that if the jet stream / sst temps remain like this any prospect of cold weather in winter is out of the question

Wow, it’s 17th September today! Looooooooong way to go!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Slightly further north this time from the 18z gfs but it is still there,i give gfs credit that it has been showing this for a good few runs now,maybe it will be well north of this when the time comes,we shall see.

gfs-0-138.thumb.png.e2251a5711ef2dd3510cfaeb7423a7e2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is that a good things for a weak pv

Its below average zonal winds in the Strat, im not really sure how much impact this has on the troposphere at this point in the season though, it may help inhibit vortex strengthening further down the line but there's so much time yet for the strat zonal winds to go back above normal. In short im not qualified or don't have the data at hand right now to say if there's any correlation between below average zonal strat winds in September and an increased risk of tropospheric blocking later in the season although probably safer to have them weaker, perhaps I might do some research over the coming weeks to find out.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The snow rows are increasing in Scotland from yesterday's gefs ens diagram:)

yesterday's/today's

graphe_ens3_rou3.gif.4fe20fc99d34b4e15d9b093d0303de40.thumb.gif.f933a90e516ada9cdeaa52ed2e4a6fa1.gifgraphe_ens3_oxj2.thumb.gif.f9c83a223a9bfa9210f78ae4a3055555.gif

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

The Ensemble mean ( on the same site ) is near 100% agreement on the dip to now 6M/S (was 5)

Best

u_65N_10hpa_gefs.thumb.png.685e07b1098de97537296fe562baa07e.png

That's 8m/s going up to 9 at the end. Still lower than climatology I suppose.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

GFSOPUK18_138_19.png

GFS 18Z still going for one heck of a storm on Sunday which I really hope doesn't come off because I was looking forward to doing a bit of fishing.

I worry that it may come off as the ECM and GFS seem to be nudging towards somewhat similar solutions. GFS has a tendancy to overdo low pressure systems as others have mentioned. However this low is generated from a real clash of airmasses. It is the remnants of Hurricane Florence so there is a lot of tropical air... but that is coming up against cold air funneled by the Greenland how moving south from the Arctic to Iceland and into the Central North Atlantic.

image.thumb.png.620c3d266bbd9df72d1d370b9b21c1ba.png 

Hopefully the storm will be gone tomorrow but I have a feeling it won't be.... 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Storm surge territory on 0z GFS 

Netweather GFS Image

Netweather GFS Image

I'd wager this will be downgraded significantly in future runs though- just as the other progged wind events have been.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM has no storm at all again....this is still a long way from being sorted out!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z has no weekend storm but it does have plenty of high pressure next week with more summer like temperatures gradually returning!..☺☀️

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

240_thickuk.png

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8 hours ago, bobbydog said:

u_65N_10hpa_gefs.thumb.png.685e07b1098de97537296fe562baa07e.png

That's 8m/s going up to 9 at the end. Still lower than climatology I suppose.

Its 6 is the near time - which is what I was referring to-

~20th September....

Anyway all models now have pretty much followed the chilly/cold GFS evolution from a couple of days ago with all the warmth wiped out --

There is also a huge split vortex post 192 on the GFS indicating further weakened westerly flow-

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Andrej (@Recretos) has shown that the GFS/GEFS have a bias toward underestimating strat zonal wind speeds. The CFS possibly too. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

Some variance in the models in the medium term (+216) possibly due to the volatility in the Atlantic in the short term:

ECM    image.thumb.gif.c9509ba3a772ee69eeefaa2e1d3b47a1.gif

GFS    image.thumb.png.4ec4eee75ccdd062fe2ecfd47ee120bc.png

GEM   image.thumb.png.d8577023086c64e2c7a3e278610d6f71.png

....but all have some sort of ridge in the vicinity of the U.K. suggesting that we could enjoy a more settled interlude towards the end of next week after a potentially quite stormy weekend to come.

 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The 500 mb anomaly charts suggest a probable SE/NW split, the best for the SE and mostly settled, more changeable for the NW. The usual caution this time of the year if any more tropical storms get into the Atlantic, beyond Joyce currently predicted to track SE.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
11 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Unsettled yes,its been unsettled since august 10th.

Those years mentioned nothing like severe gales had stronger winds in summer to any September eg 2007 summer.

I`ve never yet recorded anything wind wise in September anything notable yet up to a gale but no damage.Rrea00120040912.gif

What GFS is showing for sunday which won`t happen but Friday even would break that,sundays would be an extreme storm even for winter,massive storm surge east coast and fooding.

Not quite sure what you mean but gales in September are nothing untoward - more normal now than in July and August in fact. In fact I forgot to add 2012 to the list. Only June produced near gales that year. Here are my max gusts: 

2011 - 62mph (12th)

2012 - 63mph (24th)

2013 - 46mph (16th)

2017 - 51mph (10th)

Perhapsthe difference with Sunday's low is the strong northwesterly to northerly it would draw down behind it so the east coast would really know about it. The events I've listed above were generally straight westerlies.

All in all rather interesting. Imagine if the ground were saturated like in September 2012!

 

Edited by MP-R
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Nothing much has changed overnight - there is still a massive range of pressure options around next sunday when this storm may/may not hit us....from 980mb to 1030mb.

gefsensmslpLondon.png?w=800&h=600&mode=s

The 00z GFS op is amassive outlier in the second half of the run too.

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Great looking Ecm 00z ensemble mean next week onwards... If you love high pressure and very pleasant surface conditions!☺ 

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Nothing much has changed overnight - there is still a massive range of pressure options around next sunday when this storm may/may not hit us....from 980mb to 1030mb.

gefsensmslpLondon.png?w=800&h=600&mode=s

The 00z GFS op is amassive outlier in the second half of the run too.

Yep, 00z GFS and ECMWF chalk and cheese for early next Sunday (T+120) at the surface, while the 500mb flow is broadly similar.

ECGFS_120.thumb.PNG.64f70c1595f19b3f7da2e4014ac04682.PNG

I guess much depends on how a sharpening shortwave trough in the strong upper westerlies / jet leaving New Foundland on Friday interacts with the frontal boundary stretching west from Iberia to the north of the Azores and further west. If the shortwave phases ideally with the frontal boundary, cyclogenesis will occur which may carry a deepening low towards the UK. GFS has been keen on this for the weekend last several runs and again on the 06z run. EC not buying the weekend deep low last few runs.

Be interesting to see who's right, as GFS threatens a nasty low on 00z with widespread gales or severe gales on Sunday, which with trees in full leaf will cause widespread disruption.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Good run to run consistency from the GFS, without much backup it must be said, looks like a cracker for high waves on the East coast.

132-602UK.GIF?18-6

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

-8c nearly touching Kent before Octobers out.

cfsnh-2-822_ash0.png

That looks similar to 1980, Feb...I do so hope it doesn't happen!

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