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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening...Those people who took in the evolution of late August and September  of a high pressure dominated pattern have been sorely disappointed , Greenland seeing there coldest week for this time of year and it keeps going driving the jet stream further south and bringing some severe gales for the UK! I think this September despite its quiet start to be in like a lamb and out like a lion....This was predicted by myself ....sometime ago...Just look at my previous posts....

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PAULXX.png

post-5986-0-96303900-1439491213.gif

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates strong support for high pressure to build in beyond the next week or so..potentially a pleasant late september / early october across at least the southern half of the uk.☺

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

ecmt850.168.png ecmt850.240.png

So ECM sided with UKMO over GFS for the weekend - a warn blast remains as much on the table as a chilly one. Looking into the following week, though, you can really see the seasonal changes coming into play as cold air becomes more widespread in the far-N. Atlantic and it becomes harder and harder to avoid a properly unsettled run of weather.

While still in September, and upward kick in AAM is still a potential means of achieving much in the way of settled conditions. 

GWO_members_current.png

The models generally remain keen on this happening, but sadly, they have been persistently overestimating on this front for about a month now, so it's hard to have much confidence in high pressure gaining the upper hand for more than the odd day or two during the next 8-14 days. 

I know, though, that an increasing number on here will not be displeased at this; those who enjoy the wilder side of the autumn season. By late October I typically jump into that bandwagon (until if and when wintry weather becomes a reasonable prospect... or we arrive at next spring... 2013-14 comes to mind!), but before then I still prefer light winds and warm sunshine - perhaps I was originally destined for the Mediterranean but got misdirected along the way into this world .

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Again the gfs 18z has this low modelled for next weekend?️

gfs-0-156.thumb.png.1fd836629dd4730f7bbe5afda8e4146a.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Here's one for Gavin - make the most of it - not many more left now!  @Summer Sun

gfsnh-0-216_vpk9.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here's one for Gavin - make the most of it - not many more left now!  @Summer Sun

gfsnh-0-216_vpk9.png

Some chilly nights in the north one would suspect if that chart actually happened. Pleasant enough by day if it were sunny

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
28 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Some extreme charts from the earlier 12z- All tied in with another projected dip in the vortex to record breaking low levels...

D81C070E-FC1F-4825-ABB0-A76BBF0477A1.thumb.png.18ad8394588255e4ab36b57346d34193.png

Hmm... one ensemble chart at +384hrs doesn't really 'tie' into much. Lots of waiting yet before any projections can be given credibility....

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1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

Hmm... one ensemble chart at +384hrs doesn't really 'tie' into much. Lots of waiting yet before any projections can be given credibility....

It does im afraid because the model is trying to resolve what happens over the pole in terms of blocking when we dip down to 5M/S again on the zonal wind in around 10-12 days time- 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Lots of issues cropping up again this morning - mainly at around day 6, where the GFS is bullish about bringing the low to the SW straight through the UK:

gfs-0-156.png

UKMO says nope:

UW144-21.GIF?17-07

ECM also not interested:

ECM1-144.GIF?17-12ECM1-168.GIF?17-12

It's either northerly gales, or something much warmer from the south.

NOAA anomaly charts backing the UKMO/ECM solution:

610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

ECM ensembles from 12z yesterday also not interested:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018091612_168.

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Seems to be all about how cleanly a disturbance splits away from the main trough out to our WSW next weekend. At +120 I must admit I feared UKMO was going to follow GFS with a clean split (but with the storm crossing us less potent) but +144 revealed just enough low heights being held back to keep the Atlantic trough - Euro ridge combination in place and even allow that ridge to edge toward the UK more.

Really interesting how the ECM 00z hardly manages to split anything away at all, with the main trough still alive and well right through into next week before yet again it shows the pattern flattening (which given caution over GWO projections may be the more realistic outcome). Some considerably warm air aloft for a time but the raw data only peaks low-mid 20s, on the Monday. The maritime airmass origin leads to a lot of cloud cover. More balmy nights are the most notable result.

Recm1441.gif Recm1682.gifRecm1922.gif

For next week onward ECM and GFS are mostly some 5-8*C different in terms of mean temps .

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
10 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

The Northerly gathers pace - on this occasion the GFS may play trumps to the euros ( its rarely I call that however GFS is good when it comes to Northerlies ... )

117574F6-4350-44E1-BE1C-60FAEF8513C3.thumb.jpeg.d12a698645c6140407fe980ee73c8589.jpeg

Let’s hope so!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Looks ghastly in the south if early autumn warmth is not your thing on the ecm, high pressure just does not want to give up the ghost on the near continent.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
12 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening...Those people who took in the evolution of late August and September  of a high pressure dominated pattern have been sorely disappointed , Greenland seeing there coldest week for this time of year and it keeps going driving the jet stream further south and bringing some severe gales for the UK! I think this September despite its quiet start to be in like a lamb and out like a lion....This was predicted by myself ....sometime ago...Just look at my previous posts....

PAUL.png

PAULX.png

PAULXX.png

post-5986-0-96303900-1439491213.gif

Going by the latest Ecm run I think there’s little overall evidence of the jet stream being driven significantly further south, in fact it's looking distinctively anticylonic as we head on into next week with heights over the near continent keeping things rather benign and mild/warm for southern parts, at least.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Does the Ecm have much support this morning as it seems on the warm side ?

Here's the ensemble for London on the 00z:

graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=310.94000244140

It's actually on the cool side to start, then a slight warm outlier after. With the mean 850s around 10c it looks like being warm either way.

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM clusters today:

Generally better the further SE you head:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018091700_168.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018091700_192.

Interestingly, by the turn of the month there are a lot of +ve height anomalies showing either close to, o over the UK:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018091700_336. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

ECM clusters today:

Generally better the further SE you head:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018091700_168.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018091700_192.

Interestingly, by the turn of the month there are a lot of +ve height anomalies showing either close to, o over the UK:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018091700_336. 

Lots of encouragement again, but nervousness too. The ECM has revealed a clear weakness this past month in accurately pinpointing the final destination of height rises that originate to our south west when there's a tight gradient and active Atlantic to the north west. Our perhaps there's something else it's missing. 

I can't see that this situation has changed, so again I'm bracing myself for a gradual flattening of the pattern over the next 48 hours. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

An interesting battle is now underway between the growing Greenland vortex and the Azores high continuing to try and ridge ne.

The 00z ECM at day 3 and then 7 illustrating the see-saw battle 

ECH1-72.GIF?17-12ECH1-168.GIF?17-12

The situation being complicated by the appearance of ex tropical lows heading across the Atlantic.Still plenty of warmth to be had further south and over the continent but countered with those developments to the north west ahead of cooler air affecting particularly the nw of the UK at times.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
14 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

It does im afraid because the model is trying to resolve what happens over the pole in terms of blocking when we dip down to 5M/S again on the zonal wind in around 10-12 days time- 

Can't see it here Steve-

u_65N_10hpa.thumb.png.83596a5d54f2291042f7abf0ee3f8104.png

Looking around average.

That's H. Attard website. Where do you  see the dip to 5m/s? (which site I mean)

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Strong winds anyone?

138-289UK.GIF?17-12

Even stronger winds along the North Sea coast as it exits Yorkshire. With spring tides and peak winds during Sunday evening, it poses quite a threat with storm surge potential. I’d rather see this binned off quickly! 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Even stronger winds along the North Sea coast as it exits Yorkshire. With spring tides and peak winds during Sunday evening, it poses quite a threat with storm surge potential. I’d rather see this binned off quickly! 

Here it is

144-289UK.GIF?17-12

60mph gusts widely inland, 70-80mph on the coasts, and that looks just short of 90mph down the N Sea.

The GFS is famed for overblowing lows, but I note the UKMO is going in a similar direction? Uh oh. 

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