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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
8 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Is it not time for a new thread? Summer rolls on?? We're into week 2 of Autumn now...

Not quite, it looks summery in the south on tuesday according to the Ecm 12z but then summery warmth is thin on the ground, non existent further north and although the south has a largely fine week due to ridging..week 2 looks more unsettled and cooler for all.

 

 

48_thickuk.png

240_thickuk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
34 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Not quite, it looks summery in the south on tuesday according to the Ecm 12z but then summery warmth is thin on the ground, non existent further north and although the south has a largely fine week due to ridging..week 2 looks more unsettled and cooler for all.

 

 

48_thickuk.png

240_thickuk.png

So basically looks like autumn !! Definitely time for a new thread please .....

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

This is what the main four models are forecasting for +144 (next weekend)...

                                          500s                                                          850s

UKMO    image.thumb.gif.6c3f7755b0192db0a2ad9355f757d934.gif  image.thumb.gif.fa1cd1896f951d635cb12fa2e310e204.gif

ECM       image.thumb.gif.c48b45a0abb59d4cd45959b17176e215.gif  image.thumb.gif.1a205ab4943fe5ddee0460b286f758df.gif

GFS       image.thumb.png.4736433dc990a4fa4c015379781097a3.png  image.thumb.png.c86144e024f19e655461931f41205234.png

GEM.     image.thumb.png.8f17eadfa239453cd65d582d4cc63885.pngimage.thumb.png.9f20083c2d8cdee96ab89a5512c56775.png

Despite some differences in the possible position and strength of the Atlantic troughs, there are many similarities between the models at this date - a clear temperature gradient south to north across the UK with the south east getting the best temperatures, as expected, and a strong west / south westerly flow from the Atlantic keeping the country in unsettled conditions for the weekend and probably beyond.  The Jetstream does seem to weaken a little over the coming week but it's got the UK firmly in its sights.   Any properly warm air is firmly bottled up in Southern Europe.  There is a good word to describe these conditions.  Autumnal. 

Edited by Sky Full
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&amp;ech=204

 

if fantasy world  right things are starting to get a bit wet after the  19  th

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Nasty looking low at day 9 on the ECM . I know it won't happen but that would be the 1st named storm of the season . Anyone got the wind speeds for day 9 ?? 

IMG_2533.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

 

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Nasty looking low at day 9 on the ECM . I know it won't happen but that would be the 1st named storm of the season . Anyone got the wind speeds for day 9 ?? 

IMG_2533.PNG

Just about to post about that! I'm surprised that no-one has been talking about it yet. Of course, it's a long way off, but clearly some potential for a very potent September system has been picked up!

 

ECM100920180z.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

 

20 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Nasty looking low at day 9 on the ECM . I know it won't happen but that would be the 1st named storm of the season . Anyone got the wind speeds for day 9 ?? 

IMG_2533.PNG

Just about to post about that! I'm surprised that no-one has been talking about it yet. Of course, it's a long way off, but clearly some potential for a very potent September system has been picked up!

Difference with the GFS is that it does not phase the trough to the NW with the sub-tropical system to the SW:

 

GFS10092018t192oZ.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
21 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Nasty looking low at day 9 on the ECM . I know it won't happen but that would be the 1st named storm of the season . Anyone got the wind speeds for day 9 ?? 

IMG_2533.PNG

Whether things will end up exactly like this or not, the GFS and GEM both show some stormy conditions in the North Atlantic not far from the UK over this period.  Could we be in for an early shock this Autumn?  Let's hope the Jetstream eases north over the next few days and these conditions are delayed at least until October.  Please.

GFS   image.thumb.gif.87bf4fe7b8c143adebcd601ef0598894.gif

GEM  image.thumb.gif.d63dc5addba140a953c2a0768deeeeca.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
1 hour ago, Sky Full said:

........  Could we be in for an early shock this Autumn?  Let's hope the Jetstream eases north over the next few days and these conditions are delayed at least until October.  Please.

 

The much maligned CFS at least shows a possible route to warmer and more settled conditions in the third week of September - the jet is being nudged aside and the Azores high is able to exert some very welcome influence over the Uk - for a few days at least!  Go for it, CFS.....I'm rooting for ya!

image.thumb.gif.7dd3fd94a6a61d92ca681cb44acc773c.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
7 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

The much maligned CFS at least shows a possible route to warmer and more settled conditions in the third week of September - the jet is being nudged aside and the Azores high is able to exert some very welcome influence over the Uk - for a few days at least!  Go for it, CFS.....I'm rooting for ya!

image.thumb.gif.7dd3fd94a6a61d92ca681cb44acc773c.gif

Oops!  Seems that was the 0Z.....   The current run does this instead (same time frame):

image.thumb.gif.209b6f9d2f9cbe9dd78f51a675d071cb.gif

Spot the difference?  Jet swings south, large Atlantic trough dominates the UK.  Wet and windy everywhere.  And cool.

#*!!**# CFS!

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2 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

Nasty looking low at day 9 on the ECM . I know it won't happen but that would be the 1st named storm of the season . Anyone got the wind speeds for day 9 ?? 

IMG_2533.PNG

Gusts to 103 mph in the southwest approaches beforehand, then over 80 mph in the Bristol channel and north Wales. 60-70 mph widespread inland, then 70-80 in the lee of the pennines, according to weather.us

Edited by Interitus
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Posted
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
31 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Oops!  Seems that was the 0Z.....   The current run does this instead (same time frame):

image.thumb.gif.209b6f9d2f9cbe9dd78f51a675d071cb.gif

Spot the difference?  Jet swings south, large Atlantic trough dominates the UK.  Wet and windy everywhere.  And cool.

#*!!**# CFS!

Yes, the previous run shows that small disturbance south west of Spain throwing up a much more impressive ridge, the current run has a more transient feature allowing the trough to barrel through much closer to the UK.  There will always be big intra-run differences with so many tropical depressions meandering in the Atlantic, especially 10 days out.

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Posted
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
20 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Gusts to 103 mph in the southwest approaches beforehand, then over 80 mph in the Bristol channel and north Wales. 60-70 mph widespread inland, then 70-80 in the lee of the pennines, according to weather.us

That would be a bit of a shock to the system.  Interesting to see the configuration of the 850's in that image, big wedge of warm air to the N and E of the depression and cold air already overtaking the low centre in the south.  That would be a strong cold front!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
50 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

The much maligned CFS at least shows a possible route to warmer and more settled conditions in the third week of September - the jet is being nudged aside and the Azores high is able to exert some very welcome influence over the Uk - for a few days at least!  Go for it, CFS.....I'm rooting for ya!

image.thumb.gif.7dd3fd94a6a61d92ca681cb44acc773c.gif

To be fair, SF, it's not the CFS's charts for the end of next week that are maligned - it's those for seven-months' time!

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

To be fair, SF, it's not the CFS's charts for the end of next week that are maligned - it's those for seven-months' time!

Yes, Ed, you are right of course, but it's also swinging wilding in the 10 - 15 day period at the moment.  Mind you, so are all the others....

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
3 hours ago, Interitus said:

Gusts to 103 mph in the southwest approaches beforehand, then over 80 mph in the Bristol channel and north Wales. 60-70 mph widespread inland, then 70-80 in the lee of the pennines, according to weather.us

That would liven things up in here - I guess equinoxial gales are not unheard of !

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

Not an unattractive end to the GFS between +240 and +384:

image.thumb.gif.f7d277c6f134d176d2ce6a6150550884.gif   image.thumb.gif.9d79cefe9094d079f316f786465acb23.gif

Of course, this is a long way off in weather forecasting terms and it won't happen like this, will it, but it's got to be worth at least one sunglasses emoji from Frosty, surely?

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Day 8 on tonight's ECM . Look at this low just to the SW . Is it gonna hit us at day 9 ?? 

IMG_2535.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

And it does . Very potent storm . 

IMG_2536.PNG

And Day 10 the Atlantic really ramping up a gear . IMG_2538.thumb.PNG.c2003444c0703267eca22532eb339c6c.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

Day 9 ECM...

216_mslp500.thumb.png.0a8f391d4c736d4d92dd3cbbbabcf014.png

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

Woosh.. on the 00z

312429140_ScreenShot2018-09-10at19_52_541.thumb.png.ee7fc5653edbd65b47323069a915e61a.png

 

Similar 12z

1360839604_ScreenShot2018-09-10at20_08_04.thumb.png.7580b1344bc1d8b1cd4fbda9c4fe08c2.png

Edited by CheesepuffScott
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Day 8 on tonight's ECM . Look at this low just to the SW . Is it gonna hit us at day 9 ?? 

IMG_2535.PNG

In all honesty I think the ECM is going to be right about the hurricane near the Azores heading our way. It would be very unusual for such a storm to remain stagnant in the mid Atlantic for days and then fade away to the south. The intensity left in the storm as it heads NE would remain in question, as would its direction, so current T216 not to be taken too literally. 

The clusters, by the way, are now buying into a stormier period around the 18th/19th, at least for the NW but potentially for all, as suggested by the deep purples and tight lines near the UK (they have been threatening this for a while but have brought the timeframe further forward today):

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018091000_204.

And beyond that, the Atlantic remains in full swing as the end of month approaches. Not very typical of recent Septembers!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Day 8 on tonight's ECM . Look at this low just to the SW . Is it gonna hit us at day 9 ?? 

IMG_2535.PNG

hope not! hope it stalls to the west, need a southerly waft

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
44 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hope not! hope it stalls to the west, need a southerly waft

if  it do we might need  to batten the hatches  down!!

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