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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

Tropical waves starting to form an orderly queue across Africa , potential fireworks when hitting the Atlantic , keeping my eyes on this 

CAAB6C36-5147-4C90-8162-4CD44B3B390F.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

That's a really interesting Gfs 00z operational which shows a very autumnal spell later this week with much cooler, windy and in places wet conditions and then a major recovery back to summery weather during next week..dare I say..something for everyone?:D

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00_108_uk2mtmp.png

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00_228_uk2mtmp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean indicates a much cooler unsettled autumnal spell later this week as a low / trough becomes centred over the uk but then a gradual improvement takes place as high pressure / strong ridging builds in across the uk bringing increasingly settled and warmer weather, especially further south during next week.☺

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EDM1-240.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
3 hours ago, Raythan said:

Tropical waves starting to form an orderly queue across Africa , potential fireworks when hitting the Atlantic , keeping my eyes on this 

CAAB6C36-5147-4C90-8162-4CD44B3B390F.jpeg

Hi Raythan

could you elaborate on this please. 

Thanks. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, shotski said:

Hi Raythan

could you elaborate on this please. 

Thanks. 

As the storms drift out into the Atlantic and over warmer waters there’s the potentiail for them to form into depressions/tropical storms/eventuially hurricanes, so worth keeping an eye on things as they can go on to affect our weather here.

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
1 hour ago, Daniel Smith said:

As the storms drift out into the Atlantic and over warmer waters there’s the potentiail for them to form into depressions/tropical storms/eventuially hurricanes, so worth keeping an eye on things as they can go on to affect our weather here.

Thanks Daniel , sorry @shotski should have put more meat on the bones , SST off the coast of Africa and Cape Verdi after a benign start have now began to come into the Hurricane / tropical storm activity zone , no guarantee ofcourse but the ingredients are now there ... 

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Posted
  • Location: Bromley
  • Location: Bromley
2 hours ago, shotski said:

Hi Raythan

could you elaborate on this please. 

Thanks. 

Could be wrong, but a more active hurricane season will move more warmth up to the arctic as the storms move along their path. More heat in the arctic could mean colder conditions for winter here in the uk. 

I think...

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

You can just imagine those -10 85's spilling around the eastern side of that HP In December/January

 

Netweather GFS Image

Then the despair as it collapses into this...

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

IF the Gfs 6z operational is right, there will be some mid September BBQ's :D

06_324_uk2mtmp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Models have been fairly consistent in bringing in a warm high pressure after the low clears off into next week. One last hurrah for an epic summer?

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Models have been fairly consistent in bringing in a warm high pressure after the low clears off into next week. One last hurrah for an epic summer?

You mean those models that were saying this week would be great. Hmm

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Great chart for sept 17th on the 6z, actually next week shows plenty of warm / very warm fine weather across southern uk with high pressure / strong ridging which continues well into the following week!☺?️

06_324_ukthickness850.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Great looking GEFS 6z mean, at least for the southern half of the uk once we are through the cool unsettled crud later this week / weekend...it becomes quite summery further south during next week with high pressure building in and longer term also looks very calm / pleasant.☺

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
6 hours ago, Frosty. said:

IF the Gfs 6z operational is right, there will be some mid September BBQ's

06_324_uk2mtmp.png

IF the Gfs 12z operational is right, there won't be any mid september BBQ's ☔☔☔..very autumnal indeed.

12_312_uk2mtmp.png

12_312_mslp500.png

12_336_mslp500.png

12_384_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It's interesting to compare the Gfs 12z operational with the Gefs 12z mean on the 17th September....there's a lot more support for high pressure through the mid september period, indeed before then through next week too, the mean looks pretty benign / pleasant compared to the op run. The south of the uk in particular could be looking at a predominantly fine outlook.

12_312_mslp500.png

21_312_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Looking at the ensembles, it appears more members are less keen to get the high building in now....could be too much energy keeping it flatter and less settled. None of the op runs build the high in at all.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Much like with the second half of August, there's a nasty sense that something's just not quite right with the weather patterns. 

Currently, I can see AAM projected to rise, with the GWO getting moving through phase 5 in the coming week, and there is some eastern Pacific to tropical Atlantic MJO activity being indicated, but the model trends for next week are taking the historical precedent for the atmospheric response to such developments and, er, plopping on them.

An increasingly vigorous Atlantic jet, flattening ridges as they attempt to build across the UK and NW Europe, is the opposite to the usual response. For a possible cause, I am tempted to simply look to the big uptick in Atlantic basin tropical-extratropical cyclone movement, but this is not a clear solution; while this can increase the thermal gradient and boost the jet stream, it can also supply large amounts of anomalously warm air aloft that then sinks down at the mid-high latitudes and lead to unusually strong ridges that can move across the UK. The ECM 12z of yesterday showed such an outcome at the end of its range.

GFS 12z of today does also feature such an eventuality following a brief exploration of the flatter jet outcome, but with the ridge out west of the UK - hence the unseasonably cool (if, IMO, overly dramatic) day 10-16 output from that run. 

In that we see the nature of these tropical-extratropical cyclone movements. They can abruptly change our weather in a wide variety of ways, and potentially for quite some time (ex-Bertha, 2014, had impacts that kept August of that year cool and often showery for several weeks).

 

That being said, unless the modelling of an emerging El Nino and appropriate atmospheric response turns out to be a total misfire - which is sadly not out of the question - then there ought to be some fight back of the weather patterns against flattening ridges and driving cool air into NW Europe via the UK. I suppose we'll soon see one way or the other! Can't say I'm enjoying 2018 much these days though, to be frank it's being a right twit .

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Looking at Frosty’s 06z GFS 27c + charts earlier today and how blissfull they were ??Then all change... Just proves not to take every model output has that’s it....Blimey! looking at the GFS 06z to the GFS 12z ....it couldn’t of been any more chalk/cheese - black/white if it tried.....

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening All.....Lots of uncertainty regarding this weekend , as regards low pressure development , after that a strong jet stream heading towards the Uk so overall a rather unsettled pattern , contrary to a settled pattern as forecast....  The Kink in the jet stream this weekend is responsible  for the weekend low ...Who Knows how many Kinks we will get...

kink.png

kinkx.png

kinkxx.png

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, Singularity said:

Much like with the second half of August, there's a nasty sense that something's just not quite right with the weather patterns. 

Currently, I can see AAM projected to rise, with the GWO getting moving through phase 5 in the coming week, and there is some eastern Pacific to tropical Atlantic MJO activity being indicated, but the model trends for next week are taking the historical precedent for the atmospheric response to such developments and, er, plopping on them.

An increasingly vigorous Atlantic jet, flattening ridges as they attempt to build across the UK and NW Europe, is the opposite to the usual response. For a possible cause, I am tempted to simply look to the big uptick in Atlantic basin tropical-extratropical cyclone movement, but this is not a clear solution; while this can increase the thermal gradient and boost the jet stream, it can also supply large amounts of anomalously warm air aloft that then sinks down at the mid-high latitudes and lead to unusually strong ridges that can move across the UK. The ECM 12z of yesterday showed such an outcome at the end of its range.

GFS 12z of today does also feature such an eventuality following a brief exploration of the flatter jet outcome, but with the ridge out west of the UK - hence the unseasonably cool (if, IMO, overly dramatic) day 10-16 output from that run. 

In that we see the nature of these tropical-extratropical cyclone movements. They can abruptly change our weather in a wide variety of ways, and potentially for quite some time (ex-Bertha, 2014, had impacts that kept August of that year cool and often showery for several weeks).

 

That being said, unless the modelling of an emerging El Nino and appropriate atmospheric response turns out to be a total misfire - which is sadly not out of the question - then there ought to be some fight back of the weather patterns against flattening ridges and driving cool air into NW Europe via the UK. I suppose we'll soon see one way or the other! Can't say I'm enjoying 2018 much these days though, to be frank it's being a right twit .

Singularity I love not only your insight but also your humility - a pleasure to read on here. 

These last few days have also been a rare embarrassment for my ECM clusters too. It really did look like two weeks of nailed on settled weather were in order, now we're chasing down two days. Kudos to the ECM op, which picked this at D7 / D8. 

I'm guessing though (as usual) things won't turn out so bad for us on the south coast. I can see a few warm sunny days early next week. Further north, though, there appears no let up and, judging by recent ops and clusters, one would need to be fairly brave to predict a let up in the next two weeks. That's how far it's come, sadly. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

As said above - a bit of a modelling bust here. A couple of days back it looked nailed on for high pressure to dominate...

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018090412_192.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018090412_240.

ECM ensembles much more low pressure dominated now, with only fleeting rises in pressure in the south that quickly move on. Still looking fairly dry though, with the pressure mean hovering around 1020mb.

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&amp;ech=204

 

i know its deep fantasy world  but could it be a sign the first snow now appearing up in norway   area 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Longer term, this is a very pleasant GEFS 00z mean with a strong signal for high pressure domination, indeed next week also looks predominantly settled and warm further south thanks to strong azores ridging extending across southern uk.☺

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Much appreciated @Man With Beard, I also greatly enjoy your style of writing and contribution to the forum .

This morning I'm looking at the UKMO 00z and wondering if there's still a chance the models have just been overreacting to the increased thermal gradient in the North Atlantic. 

Rukm1441.gif

Then again, that main trough making it so far east is clearly a big issue regardless. What's needed is some lowering of heights over or a little east of  the Azores to shift the jet stream back to a SW-NE orientation, and then for the Atlantic-European sector amplification response to the increasing AAM to kick in.

Without that first step, we run the risk of ridges building more west of the UK at least for a time (GWO cycle should still force it eastward at some point or other).

 

Reading their recent updates, I can see that the Met Office aren't faring much better against this model volatility, though if we do see a reversion to more settled and warmer next week, that will shed them in a better light again. 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Interesting posts above. Just taking my usual 2 week look using the 500 mb anomaly charts. They too have not given sound advice over the past 7-10 days. Just been comparing the 00z actual 500 mb chart with what they suggested and they did not really spot the marked change other than showing a general westerly flow but missed the marked troughing between the two troughs shown on the actual mentioned above.

They coninue to predict a broadly westerly 500 mb flow with no sign of ridging nor of any marked troughing in the actual flow into the UK. As we have not had any major tropical storm input into the Atlantic yet it is a bit unusual for them not to rate, by me, as raily good to good. Hey ho, the weather often makes a monkey out of most of us at times.

Below are the current 500 mb predictions

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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