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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Interesting to see the GFS 06Z following the idea of the earlier run with that low over Biscay still there- it would certainly be a notably warm start to September if that came off. With that continental flow it would also be very sunny for most as well. Promising signs.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS continues to show some warm humid air waft in off the continent from the S/E into next week, With some spots possibly touching 26/27/28c and scope for thunderstorms to push North.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Looks fairly reasonable from my point of view. Some useable weather as they’d call it, temps in the low twenties. Can’t be bad.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well it seems by Thursday high pressure is in charge again, so about 3 weeks since the heatwave ended - and apart from one or two vile days, the intervening period has been fairly average UK summer weather not a wash out, at least in this neck of the woods.  Moving on, here's the UKMO, GFS, GEM and FV3 at T144, spot the odd one out:

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GFS alone developing that low W of France, which could bring warm air and instability, the rest seem on the high pressure train, settled and warm but not hot at this time of year.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

FV3 toward the end of the run shows a real plume evolution, just to show that this is an option on the table, there's other things on the table as well though!

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ECM at T144 going with the consensus of continued high pressure settled spell:

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

It’s just taken a bit longer to arrive - met we’re saying middle to last third of August for a while, that hasn’t really happened, but as the new month comes in we could have some nice weather for all.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

That's a very sweet finish to a nice Ecm 12z run dominated by high pressure..wonderful NH profile at day 10..now that's what I call finishing on a HIGH note!☺

ecm500.240.png

npsh500.240.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Oh its September looming and once again, high pressure on the scene. Indeed early September on average is the quietest time of year weatherwise, atlantic often goes into a slumber.. so many times - any reason why this keeps happening?

Alas, a very pleasant outlook for all, though western parts will see a rather drab dank weekend ahead, and will have to wait until next week - just in time for the schools going back (I feel for the kids this year, it was a shorter holiday locally here, 27th July and ever since its been a gloom fest with plenty of rain and consistently underwhelming temps, they go back early next week - and the weather reverts again, becoming a common theme..)

September is a great month for outdoor activities, humidity begins to ebb, and maxes in the low 20s under a blue sky and sunshine don't roast you unlike in June and July, you can just about get away without suncream, though can burn still.

However, I've found myself quoting the title of the song 'wake me up when September ends' many a time in recent years - it can be an ever so dull month weather watching / model watching, and I suspect I will quoting it again this year... 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

@damianslaw - I think the heat chasers got model fatigue this year, it's been a cataclysmic season! So I think it's going to be a slow month on here! MWB and Frosty are hardcore though :)

Right back on topic... ECM ensembles look pretty much unchanged - settled, warmish daytime, keep a jumper handy first and last thing. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

@damianslaw - I think the heat chasers got model fatigue this year, it's been a cataclysmic season! So I think it's going to be a slow month on here! MWB and Frosty are hardcore though :)

Right back on topic... ECM ensembles look pretty much unchanged - settled, warmish daytime, keep a jumper handy first and last thing. 

Yes 'slow' at least in the first half. Time for me to take another break from model watching.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Well i am looking at a blocked scenario here,whether it materialises  we shall see because as i read it we have a blocking hp cell/signal over Scandinavia

a look at the cpc 500mb outlook from NOAA day 6-10 and 8-14 shows the Scandi ridge exerting itself further west and including the Uk holding atlantic systems at bay

610day_03.thumb.gif.9b934731512a173e81ac3cc827bc6066.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.4578bb71c8356cc662fd16aa473c7d66.gif

the reason i mention this is the AO and the NAO(forecast)looks to go negative for the first time-circa -2 ,well since back in March i think,now with a slowdown in the jet  would mean more of a meridial pattern(amplified slow pattern) where troughs in the Atlantic would dig further south enhancing more of a plume type scenario,and i would not rule out a thundery breakdown from the south/southwest

ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.c4f85227d81e17c4c702e451b5996e52.gifnao.sprd2.thumb.gif.c29a9a00ccfb73e13ae7f5b7586c4d41.gif

can we have this in a few months:)

it has been a great summer which followed a very cold winter/spring,well spring got sprung.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey

Yes the the back to school warm wave looks like it’s making another appearance - the early September anticyclonuc singularity must be one of the most reliable of all the Buchanan Spells.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

 

However, I've found myself quoting the title of the song 'wake me up when September ends' many a time in recent years - it can be an ever so dull month weather watching / model watching, and I suspect I will quoting it again this year... 

 

Must be where you live. Other than 2014 and 2009, Septembers have been pretty varied over the last decade - more interesting than Augusts in fact. Some turned unsettled after the first week e.g. 2012, 2013 and 2015. Some turned unsettled after the opening few days e.g. 2010 and 2011. 2017 was unsettled from the start and 2016 was the humid changeable type.

We're actually overdue a settled September so this year may be the year. Still unsure about it lasting long beyond the 10th. Many a model run has shown how easy it would be for low pressure to push through the sausage high over the UK, either from the NW or S, or both joining in the middle. In the short term, a warm (and hopefully sunny) opening to September to look forward to.

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

Interesting to see an intense system to the south west of Portugal within the T+160 range on the 00z GFS

By T+240 it has moved north further into the Atlantic and after that (FI) starts to move towards the UK.

The same system is also on the ECM well to the west of Portugal at T+216.

Will be interesting to keep an eye on this in the next few days. 

Presumably it's an ex hurricane or tropical storm, and if so won't get named by the Met or Irish weather services. I believe the next named storm on the list is Iona. Storm names for the new season are usually issued in the first week of Sept and I believe the names take immediate effect, so it perhaps looks unlikely that we'll get "Storm Iona" this year. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The 00z models look great if you love high pressure, lots of warm anticyclonic weather, potentially very warm at times further s / e and largely fine with plenty of sunshine right across the uk with just the occasional front drifting SE but quickly dying as it pushes into high pressure.☺

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Looks like strong agreement with the return of the heat next week. Warm continental flow as ( highlighted below from Frankfurt upper temp projection)

C

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
4 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

 

Presumably it's an ex hurricane or tropical storm, and if so won't get named by the Met or Irish weather services. I believe the next named storm on the list is Iona. Storm names for the new season are usually issued in the first week of Sept and I believe the names take immediate effect, so it perhaps looks unlikely that we'll get "Storm Iona" this year. 

Looks like a possible Cape Verde recurve? Might be worth keeping an eye on to see if such forms? If it moves back toward us at speed then it might not be fully transitioned by the time it hits europe? 

Then there is the 'enters the med' option? 

Warm waters in the Med!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean is emphatically anticyclonic, don't think we are going to be seeing much, if any atlantic crud in the foreseeable future!☺

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There's a good deal of warm anticyclonic weather on the Gfs 12z operational, especially further south across england and wales  and also some very warm / humid thundery potential towards the end of next week into the early part of the following week with a continental inflow but the emphasis is on high pressure / strong azores ridging and plenty of sunshine, some chilly nights too but also some warm / humid nights during the continental incursion...there is occasional atlantic influence across the far NW and a suggestion of a weakening front drifting SE into high pressure early next week and quickly fizzling out / fragmenting with little or no rain on it by the time it reaches the SE.☺

Edited by Frosty.
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