Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[ICE COLD]

59 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

why not mention the GFS as well? I know many on here don't rate GFS, but showing a good day,  EC is top model for a reason mind you

The GFS is always at least a day behind the euros . What's wrong with saying low pressure slap bang over us next Saturday ?

Edited August 25, 2018 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[johnholmes]

4 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

The ECM is not as good as yesterday for you summer lovers . Low pressure is more involved and it's quite a messy run . At day 7 low pressure smack bang over us . 

 

It is just for the one day though or am I missing something.

You are not the only one to 'cherry pick' charts mind you.

Heaven only knows why some of you cannot give a balanced view of any particular run.

new folk summer and winter must be totally confused at times.

 

[Mac_SE]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

It is just for the one day though or am I missing something.

You are not the only one to 'cherry pick' charts mind you.

Heaven only knows why some of you cannot give a balanced view of any particular run.

new folk summer and winter must be totally confused at times.

 

Totally agree, John. One of the main skills required on here, as well being able to interpret the models and almost as tricky, is reading between the lines and the subsequent filtering required of certain posters. Nine years in and think I've just about got the balance right.

Anyhow, looking at the models going forward, hoping the high does build back in as suggested, which will make the current influx of polar maritime air more tolerable. Not quite ready for autumn just yet.

[Mike Poole]

GFS 6z looking good for the warm settled outcome here at T162, T204 and T276:

GFS parallel/FV3 also has the settled high pressure outlook, in fact this model has been the most consistent recently, here animated GIF T192 onwards (you'll have to click the link, don't seem to be able to get these to show automatically any more).

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5777/tempresult_ezt4.gif

Edited August 25, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

I'm not ready to let go of summery potential until we have squeezed every drop out of it and the GEFS 6z mean indicates summer being extended well into september!

Edited August 25, 2018 by Frosty.

[BlazeStorm]

Since we're cherry picking some rather lovely charts, anyone down for a northerly blast beginning of September?

 

[Badgers01]

5 minutes ago, BlazeStorm said:

Since we're cherry picking some rather lovely charts, anyone down for a northerly blast beginning of September?

 

Yes - some good thunderstorms from that with the warm seas and surface heating ...

Edited August 25, 2018 by Badgers01

[Captain Shortwave]

3 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

The GFS is always at least a day behind the euros . What's wrong with saying low pressure slap bang over us next Saturday ?

Worth noting the ECM op is not supported by the ensembles.

So at the moment the operational looks to be an outlier though of course at 7 days out it will be difficult to pin down a single system moving through the no other output seems to suggest that a trough will move east through the UK next weekend with the model outlook favouring the jetstream moving northwards later this week and sitting over or just north of Scotland so settled weather is favoured though the level of warmth remains to be seen.

ECM ens

      

GEFs

      

Slight differences in the position of the high and of course this would affect the temperatures seen but settled weather is favoured for week two after a changeable week ahead.

[mb018538]

Gfs and UKmo totally at odds at day 6....hard to know what we’re going to get really!

[Frosty.]

The Ukmo 12z looks quite unsettled at T+144 with an atlantic low moving in but the Gfs 12z operational looks much better and goes on to produce a lovely settled and warm spell across southern uk. The Gfs run certainly isn't perfect and a cooler spell returns from the NW later in the run but I'm hopeful that it's right about next week and more especially regarding early september.☺

[Mike Poole]

Yes the situation at T144 is interesting, first UKMO and GEM with the incoming low scenario:

against the GFS and now FV3 going completely the other way with high pressure nosing in:

I know which evolution I'm backing!

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is certainly trending in an increasingly warm and anticyclonic direction with a summery start to autumn, at least across southern uk according to this.☺

[ICE COLD]

ECM T144 is similar to UKMO and GEM . 

GFS on its own at the moment . 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM T144 is similar to UKMO and GEM . 

GFS on its own at the moment . 

Yes, GFS will follow tomorrow, probably fully by the 12Z, Autumn is here

[ICE COLD]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, GFS will follow tomorrow, probably fully by the 12Z, Autumn is here

Yes the Atlantic is slowly but shorley starting to ramp up . I no that's not what people want to here but it will happen as we are now headed into autumn . It looks changeable . One day wet the next 2 fine and dry and so on . We can't complain it's been a very hot and dry summer . 

ECM T192 - settled and pleasantly warm . 

 

Edited August 25, 2018 by ICE COLD

[Mike Poole]

Some different ideas in here tonight. Yes the ECM does follow the UKMO and GEM but then what here at T192:

Looks very much to me like a knee jerk reaction to it going wrong earlier in the run, compare to the FV3 at same time where the evolution looks seamless:

Edited August 25, 2018 by Mike Poole

[ICE COLD]

By T216 another low other the uk . Changeable  weather again on this run . 

Edited August 25, 2018 by ICE COLD

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

By T216 another low other the uk . Changeable  weather again on this run . 

Ay, into FI, but looking zonal, but as you say in earlier post, breaks in systems, hopefully dry slots timed for the day

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is going for a nice settled spell across southern uk from next weekend with a robust azores ridge extending across the south at least..and hopefully further north too on subsequent runs!☺

[davehsug]

Have to say it was a bit of a shock looking at ECM tonight. I wasn't expecting that. Looks like my anticipation of a dry warm week away from 2nd September was just a walk up the garden path. Hopefully the models have picked up some "rogue" signal & the forecasts of METO and some of our own posters are still intact!

Edited August 25, 2018 by davehsug

[Scorcher]

Disappointing from the ECM tonight but hopefully another rogue run. The pub run from the GFS is a thing of beauty tonight for next weekend:

Dry, sunny and warm for many if that chart comes to fruition.

[samadamsuk]

11 hours ago, johnholmes said:

It is just for the one day though or am I missing something.

You are not the only one to 'cherry pick' charts mind you.

Heaven only knows why some of you cannot give a balanced view of any particular run.

new folk summer and winter must be totally confused at times.

 

Well this is model output discussion thread, not a forecast thread or a newbie guide.. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks like EC dropped the horrible setup for Friday, ukmo has as well

[mushymanrob]

8 hours ago, samadamsuk said:

Well this is model output discussion thread, not a forecast thread or a newbie guide.. 

not sure how you can seperate model discussion from forecasting... surely they go hand in hand?... anyhoo ..

the noaa 500mb charts are pretty consistent and suggest some ridging crossing the uk in the 6-14 day period. they would suggest the current gfs outlook is possibly closer to the mark then the ecm runs that dont appear to be quite as progressive with the ridge.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php
 

[Man With Beard]

A theme of the ensembles in recent weeks has been underestimating the Atlantic at long range (opposite of earlier in the summer) and it looks like happening again - compare the clusters for next weekend from 5 days ago with last nights:

Much more blue closer to the UK. 

I would still hope for enough strength in the heights to allow a few good days in areas, but might be more of a North /south spilt once again. Sorry Scotland