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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

BH Monday looks warm further s / e...Longer term the Gfs 12z operational looks great with high followed by more high pressure and becoming very warm further south...I have high hopes for september..as do exeter, the extended range sounds anticyclonic and warm, with potentially very warm conditions for southern uk..more like summer than early autumn!  

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean has an increasingly warm and settled look to it longer term with plenty of strong ridging / anticyclonic influence indicated, even an azores / scandi high link-up!.. early september, possibly even to mid month..could be a nice extension to summer!

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Looking forward to the now well accepted evolution to a return of summery conditions, here's the model output at T240.  First GFS:

image.thumb.jpg.8ad36b5e981681fb105c4d5a7a4b0cb6.jpg

GEM:

image.thumb.jpg.588c90b1849435c813be959d5847be6e.jpg

FV3 - this one picked this spell up earlier than most, from my recollection:

image.thumb.jpg.f16334c90db669e3d84092690e8d5403.jpg

And finally ECM:

image.thumb.jpg.8900a3ce4613af9dc029019bff9c73d9.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Mike summed up the 12z runs well, I like that strong surge of high pressure from the south at the end of the Ecm 12z

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240_mslp500.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Looking forward to the now well accepted evolution to a return of summery conditions, here's the model output at T240.  First GFS:

image.thumb.jpg.8ad36b5e981681fb105c4d5a7a4b0cb6.jpg

GEM:

image.thumb.jpg.588c90b1849435c813be959d5847be6e.jpg

FV3 - this one picked this spell up earlier than most, from my recollection:

image.thumb.jpg.f16334c90db669e3d84092690e8d5403.jpg

And finally ECM:

image.thumb.jpg.8900a3ce4613af9dc029019bff9c73d9.jpg

These charts have been stuck at Day 10 for the past 5 days mike . They don't seem to be getting closer ? It's suits me fine because I'm ready and waiting for autumn . Quite cool 850s at day 9 especially Scotland

IMG_2504.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

These charts have been stuck at Day 10 for the past 5 days mike . They don't seem to be getting closer ? It's suits me fine because I'm ready and waiting for autumn . Quite cool 850s at day 9 especially Scotland

IMG_2504.PNG

It's about trends really, the extended 12z runs concur with exeter's thoughts regarding the end of August and more especially the first third and potentially the first half of September being an extension to summer with high pressure in charge..and warm / very warm surface conditions..fingers crossed that signal continues to strengthen!☺

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
11 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

These charts have been stuck at Day 10 for the past 5 days mike . They don't seem to be getting closer ? It's suits me fine because I'm ready and waiting for autumn . Quite cool 850s at day 9 especially Scotland

IMG_2504.PNG

I don't agree Ice Cold, they've been showing variably at day 10 yes, but the change happened yesterday, I think.  ALL the main models were showing basically the same evolution at day 10, the ensembles and clusters since have followed suit (see earlier posts from others), and of course today the Met Office update is totally behind it too, I'd be amazed if a warm, or very warm settled period didn't happen in early September.

And this illustrates something I find interesting re the models, what time is FI?  

As of now, with the upcoming high pressure slow moving systems, and cross model agreement, it's day 8+.  In winter, with possible snow scenarios on the cards it can be less than day 4.  What makes the model watching interesting!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
31 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I don't agree Ice Cold, they've been showing variably at day 10 yes, but the change happened yesterday, I think.  ALL the main models were showing basically the same evolution at day 10, the ensembles and clusters since have followed suit (see earlier posts from others), and of course today the Met Office update is totally behind it too, I'd be amazed if a warm, or very warm settled period didn't happen in early September.

And this illustrates something I find interesting re the models, what time is FI?  

As of now, with the upcoming high pressure slow moving systems, and cross model agreement, it's day 8+.  In winter, with possible snow scenarios on the cards it can be less than day 4.  What makes the model watching interesting!

Fair enough Mike . Time will tell mate . Back to this week and the Gem is showing some quite low temps sat night / sun morn . Could be the first ground frost for a while . 

IMG_2505.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean ends on a high note..literally!☺

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean ends on a high note..literally!☺

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

Yes it does Karl, this spell looks good to me as practically nailed on now, so it's a case of counting it down on the model runs, as slight changes in the location(s) of the high pressures will undoubtedly change, but the broader scale evolution probably won't. 

Have to say that T240 chart you quote reminds me of the charts at the outset of the main heatwave starting late June, with the jet north allowing break off high pressures from the Azores.  That lasted weeks, I think there's a chance this spell will have some longevity too, although obviously the sun is less strong now.  Let's see!

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes it does Karl, this spell looks good to me as practically nailed on now, so it's a case of counting it down on the model runs, as slight changes in the location(s) of the high pressures will undoubtedly change, but the broader scale evolution probably won't. 

Have to say that T240 chart you quote reminds me of the charts at the outset of the main heatwave starting late June, with the jet north allowing break off high pressures from the Azores.  That lasted weeks, I think there's a chance this spell will have some longevity too, although obviously the sun is less strong now.  Let's see!

Agree with all this except to add - such a patten is a nailed on heatwave at the end of June, but at the start of September its all about the feed. A little easterly feed can be either warm or cool by then. Settled yes, but temperatures to be confirmed I think. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes it does Karl, this spell looks good to me as practically nailed on now, so it's a case of counting it down on the model runs, as slight changes in the location(s) of the high pressures will undoubtedly change, but the broader scale evolution probably won't. 

Have to say that T240 chart you quote reminds me of the charts at the outset of the main heatwave starting late June, with the jet north allowing break off high pressures from the Azores.  That lasted weeks, I think there's a chance this spell will have some longevity too, although obviously the sun is less strong now.  Let's see!

Tide is always against sustained settled conditions once we hit September - a week or two is feasible, but anything longer is quite difficult to achieve, compared to the March- July period. Factors which make it more difficult include the powering up of the jet, and unknown hurricane activity (which incidentally mind is forecast to be low this year - but one storm can throw things into chaos).

In the short term - unsettled and significantly cooler for all,  the first northerly I believe since April..As we approach September, yes strong signal high pressure will anchor itself over the UK and most probably ridge NE to scandi. I can see early Sept being a very trying period model watching with not much happening (September is the most uninteresting month for model watching and weather enthusiasts in my opinion - 'wake me up when September ends'..)

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Pleased to see GFS exploring the Sun-Mon hold-up of the cold front, though this was actually overshadowed by the adjustment to consolidating the main trough over Iceland rather than the N. Sea. An abrupt shift to something a little more Nino-like, and ECM came oh-so-close, actually arriving there in a slightly different way next Tuesday before somehow adding yet another brief wave of Nina-like amplification. 

h850t850eu.png ecmt850.168.png

Can these charts be the building blocks for the warm/very warm August finalé that's so long been anticipated? Even if it was only the final 3 or 4 days, that'd be better than a total failure of it to arrive before September. It appears it only needs the Sunday trough to be slowed down a little more in the case of ECM (and a bit further more in the case of UKMO).

Speaking of the new month... the delay to the next tropical cycle has greatly shortened the odds on an exceptionally warm first 1-2 weeks. GFS 12z seems a fair effort, if a bit OTT with the blocking high strength and resultant draw of cooler air across the N half of the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

All going swimmingly for settled warm to very warm weather for swathes of the county on the GFS 18z 

T192 the anticyclone shows itself:

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Then by T240 we have this:

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And 12C uppers nudging in:

image.thumb.jpg.952329b9368405199465419ce8ce1797.jpg

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The first week of September is looking baking hot and heat much more well spread across the UK. The uppers aren't even that high an a raw output of 30C is being thrown out. Possible the hottest start to September is on the cards with minima into the high teens across Southern England. Another ridge is ready to take the previous ones place on the Gfs 18z

GFSOPUK18_312_48.png

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Posted
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
4 hours ago, Leo97t said:

The first week of September is looking baking hot and heat much more well spread across the UK. The uppers aren't even that high an a raw output of 30C is being thrown out. Possible the hottest start to September is on the cards with minima into the high teens across Southern England. Another ridge is ready to take the previous ones place on the Gfs 18z

GFSOPUK18_312_48.png

And for balance, the min chart for the same time. Also, it’s predicting 30 for London on your chart, hardly widespread.

0956CF96-F05C-405A-9BEA-E446BF20AFA9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Droitwich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: Droitwich
48 minutes ago, Danielvn said:

And for balance, the min chart for the same time. Also, it’s predicting 30 for London on your chart, hardly widespread.

0956CF96-F05C-405A-9BEA-E446BF20AFA9.png

For ‘more balance’ as temps are normally undercooked by 1-3 degrees that would take many more places above 30*c. 

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
2 hours ago, Danielvn said:

And for balance, the min chart for the same time. Also, it’s predicting 30 for London on your chart, hardly widespread.

0956CF96-F05C-405A-9BEA-E446BF20AFA9.png

To be fair to him, he said “heat” is widespread, not 30c being widespread. The chart he posted shows 27s and 28s into northern England. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean indicates a pleasantly warm settled end to august and start to september across most of the uk.☺

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Despite the positive comments above it would appear to me that GFS aside there has been a considerable downgrade from the Euro and UKMO in terms of support for pressure to build for more than a day or two. 

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

Not sure i necessarily agree.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018082200_240.

EC clusters all high pressure dominated at day 10, staying that way right out to day 15:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018082200_300.ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018082200_360.

Met Office update also reflects this too, so reasonable confidence in some decent weather as we head into september - once we get the chilly and slightly unsettled bank holiday out of the way.

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Despite the positive comments above it would appear to me that GFS aside there has been a considerable downgrade from the Euro and UKMO in terms of support for pressure to build for more than a day or two. 

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

Yes, if I'm not mistaken, both the GFS, UKMO, and to a certain extent the ECM, don't show such a clear cut progression to high pressure. The former in particular only show high pressure properly influencing a few days at a time, interrupted by spoiler lows or digs down from the northwest. To me that sounds quite similar to this August.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean strongly supports a warm anticyclonic extended outlook.☺

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z operational shows a north / south split develop next week onwards following the cooler unsettled spell with most of the unsettled weather affecting northern uk whereas the south has higher pressure at times bringing predominantly dry, bright and warm conditions, especially further s / se but even further south is not immune from some occasional rain. For what it's worth I think the extended outlook will become a lot more settled as the 6z mean showed and exeter's latest update which is again excellent longer term for those of us hoping summer is extended to mid september at least!☺

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Some odd comments in here today, almost as if some people are subject to cold bias!   Even if it isn't winter.

Cut right to the chase ECM at T240:

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On the money as per warm, possibly very warm and settled start to September. 

Let's go back a bit, T120 bank holiday Monday:

image.thumb.jpg.d5d6da4fa4a183fe7f3e1aae2fbf74bf.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.5716cf10bcf993aca7dab53814fbc808.jpg

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Give a more settled bank holiday to the SE, less so further north, and not very warm.

Back to the T240 charts, and as well as the ECM we have this from the GFS, GEM and FV3:

image.thumb.jpg.baac1aeb345673eaa65c9e4ed8b18f7f.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.1112de8fbcc2fbf585ec03ffd6c12cdc.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.59514f6e798ee094d157139bf878f603.jpg

 

 

 

 

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