Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - summer rolls on


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Back holiday watch again - clusters not as keen on eastern height rises this morning, but a pretty good set for all except the far NW - looking settled and probably allowing temperatures above average on 4 of the 5 clusters

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018081700_240.

Edited by Man With Beard
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

For the most part, the Gfs 6z operational shows  fine and warm weather further s / e / se and the bulk of the changeable / unsettled and cooler weather further n / nw.... BUT then the end of August and start of September look summery for most areas, especially southern uk with the jet further north / northwest and high pressure in control.☺ 

06_348_mslp500.png

06_372_uk2mtmp.png

06_372_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Essentially, the GEFS 6z mean indicates a typical north / south split with the best chance of fine and warm spells further s / se whereas further north by northwest look generally cooler & more changeable / unsettled, occasionally the more unsettled weather slips further SE but as with previous means in the extended range, there is increased support for the azores high to ridge in stronger towards the end of august and potentially continue that way into the early part of the meteorological autumn.☺

21_132_500mb.png

21_228_500mb.png

21_252_500mb.png

21_276_2mtmpmax.png

21_324_500mb.png

21_348_500mb.png

21_372_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

So to the 12s then and I wonder if this is when we see the uncertainty in the ~10 day timeframe resolved a bit.  First out ICON at T132 and T180, ridge, and stronger ridge respectively:

image.thumb.jpg.0cc0bc0891afefc625ad013fe53136b7.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.0aef5669787289830b687b6f8b8a82b5.jpg

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

12z gfs is yuck - drops the trough straight over the UK in a weeks time. Nothing like the 6z and hopefully a cold outlier!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Chalk and cheese so far for the GFS and GEM at T180 for comparison with the ICON above.  

image.thumb.jpg.51c656a257c11d295d94f09e095f3a5d.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.4058e7cd6f7a228f58625226ad4684f0.jpg

GEM much the better.

UKMO T144 maybe leaning a bit towards the GFS?  UKMO not been much help with the slow moving patterns of this summer, only going out to T144.

image.thumb.jpg.fe2cd31c54f6491659c4d3549858cc58.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I'm not sure if anyone has mentioned this already but I was quite encouraged by the T+240 Ecm 00z operational / ensemble mean earlier with a strong azores ridge building in.☺

EDM1-240.GIF

ECM1-240.gif

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well the early part of the GFS is awful, but goes against expectations from background signals and long range models, salvages something at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.ea4bce18b68abc1fe0d895004afce59a.jpg

And then has the temerity to end like this, 

image.thumb.jpg.11e12d0a4640633ed0be2248e24cf00e.jpg

Only, this is my view of the eventual outcome! We'll see.

GEM, good earlier frames, looks a bit flat at T240 for most of the country, fine for the south:

image.thumb.jpg.5cee7885a5a70320a9b40eda3880ef79.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z operational has a happy ending with pleasant warmth and high pressure dominant and actually through the run there's plenty of rebuilding high pressure / ridging bringing fine and warm weather, especially further s / e...sure there's a few cooler unsettled blips too but it's not an unsettled run..far from it!☺

12_384_mslp500.png

12_384_uk2mtmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Strong GEFS mean from the 12z, higher probability of ridging into the UK, caveat that this is primarily the south, here T240:

image.thumb.jpg.aaf7da4ca53dc1c5ea7cf67a538b0280.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

In the nearer term, the ARGEPE has much of central / southern England above 25C until at least Tuesday (especially from Sunday) and spots in the east up to 27C.

Not big fry by the standards of the summer so far, but still in the "very good summer weather" category. 

For me, clearly a cool down everywhere by next Friday (Scotland sadly never really warming up), but the typical behavior of Atlantic highs modelled weakly at T168 is for them to become flatter and further E by T0. So I'm not buying this NWly. I would expect an improving back holiday weekend, perhaps getting very warm once again by the end of it. 

A N/S split then for quite a while ahead. North areas mixed with average temps, southern areas get some very usable summer weather right up to the bank holiday perhaps apart from one day at the end of next week. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

Great to see the colder 850’s at the end of the run, -16 uppers to usher in autumn as the heat belt gets squeezed back to the mid latitudes. 

81FD522D-8110-4ABA-A047-F72D481BEB17.png

ED2F1F68-6F95-48E8-AA27-61642DDE912D.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Ok..it's low res but run after run from the GEFS mean is showing this!.. a very pleasant anticyclonic end to summer and a summery start to autumn from the GEFS 12z mean.☺

21_246_500mb.png

21_270_500mb.png

21_294_500mb.png

21_318_500mb.png

21_342_500mb.png

21_342_2mtmpmax.png

21_366_500mb.png

21_384_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
6 minutes ago, shotski said:

Great to see the colder 850’s at the end of the run, -16 uppers to usher in autumn as the heat belt gets squeezed back to the mid latitudes. 

81FD522D-8110-4ABA-A047-F72D481BEB17.png

ED2F1F68-6F95-48E8-AA27-61642DDE912D.png

Hopefully this post heralds a record warm September. A lot of summers that have a hot July seem to also have a warm September. 1999, 2003, 2006, 2014 and to a lesser extent 2005 (July not overly warm that year). 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z shows some very warm potential further south depending on sunshine amounts with impressive uppers, then there's quite an autumnal very cool few days and nights later next week before a ridge cuts off the v  cool Nw'ly  feed and winds back more westerly and Tm air replaces Pm..actually beyond day 10 I think the azores high would have the momentum to build in.☺

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

OK so what do we make of the best models at T240, here's the ECM

image.thumb.jpg.1cbfef4cbcd48425a7c24edf710ae6a2.jpg

It does look good for warm settled weather for the south, but the No. 2 performing model the GFS paralell / FV3 at same time - this is the one I'm backing.

image.thumb.jpg.848810c6a0cb08f0ffdc4252aeeed81e.jpg

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, there's plenty of fine warm weather further s / se and potentially very warm for a time across s / se england which is followed by a glancing blow cool changeable / unsettled blip from the NW later next week but it's very short-lived and like the operational, temps gradually recover again and the azores ridge starts to build in towards the sw / s.☺

Edited by Frosty.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Hi folks, summer isn't ended, Far from  it. GEFS 12z mean here T240:

image.thumb.jpg.70c764d4d307179a7b34b729922c640f.jpg

Seems an even stronger signal towards the end of the run! 

image.thumb.jpg.378636fc0fc38243bfbec978b112d4b6.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening...A Slippery slope to Autumn as Gfs and Ecm suggest,

nigel.png

nigelx.png

mindblown6.gif

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

..and others that don't

1976, 1983, 1994, 1995, 2013

Probably September  2018 too October looks very interesting 

Edited by ANYWEATHER
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
49 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hi folks, summer isn't ended, Far from  it. GEFS 12z mean here T240:

image.thumb.jpg.70c764d4d307179a7b34b729922c640f.jpg

Seems an even stronger signal towards the end of the run! 

image.thumb.jpg.378636fc0fc38243bfbec978b112d4b6.jpg

Exactly, it's hardly a slippery slope to autumn as some would have us believe is it!:whistling:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
9 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Not many recent ones in that list though. Only one after 2000.

However you quoted July 2005 as an example and Julys 2001 and 2010 had higher CETs and were not followed by warm Septembers, 

Edited by Weather-history
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Nice end to the Ecm 00z, indeed most of the run looks nice further south with plenty of fine and warm / very warm weather.☺

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...