Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[mb018538]

ECM nothing like the 00z as expected. Westerlies holding strong for the time being.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240, et voila!  Decent high nosing in:

But FV3 goes down the GEM route, failing to develop the low and ending in an Atlantic high later, here T144 chart to compare with the others I posted above:

And that's from the model currently performing at No.2 (NH).  So a standoff, but one which must surely be resolved in the next 24 hours, I would suggest.

Edited August 15, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Indeed mike, the Ecm 12z takes a different route but still ends with high pressure building in strongly, a day or so later and the high would be slap bang over the uk and then perhaps drift further east and enable a much warmer continental inflow!..glass more than half full here but I'm not going to moan about this run since it's been a great summer overall!

Edited August 15, 2018 by Frosty.

[ICE COLD]

ECM nice and fresh from the NW later next week . Polar opposites to this morning run . The summer is slowly petering out .

[Frosty.]

And just to show how balanced i am, here's the Gem 12z, should please the heat haters!

Edited August 15, 2018 by Frosty.

[gottolovethisweather]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

In a nutshell, the Gfs 12z operational shows a north / south split for most of the run, most of the rain and cooler temps further north, the best of the fine weather and warmer temps further south but even the south has a few cooler unsettled days too..but then, as we have seen with recent gfs runs, high pressure becomes dominant towards the end of August and this run, as with the 6z shows a lovely end to summer.☺

 

 

1

Looks very much like a right ole.. then @Frosty.

Mixed Bag

 

Edited August 15, 2018 by gottolovethisweather

[Djdazzle]

Yet again ECM shows a good chart at day 10.

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Yet again ECM shows a good chart at day 10.

There's actually plenty of warm / very warm and fine weather for southern uk on the Ecm 12z operational after the current cooler blip before it potentially cools down again from the NW later next week (some cool clean fresh polar maritime would be pleasant actually) and the atlantic high stays close and then builds in again..towards the end of August could yet be warm and anticyclonic.☺

Edited August 15, 2018 by Frosty.

[danm]

Well unfortunately for heat lovers the ECM moves towards the GFS for late next week. High centred to the west of the UK rather than the east. Still largely settled but much cooler than the 0z. 

Edited August 15, 2018 by danm

[mb018538]

23 minutes ago, danm said:

Well unfortunately for heat lovers the ECM moves towards the GFS for late next week. High centred to the west of the UK rather than the east. Still largely settled but much cooler than the 0z. 

That’ll do. Maybe one more dose of the warm stuff, then I’ll be on full on autumn mode! September isn’t far away!

[Man With Beard]

Interesting to see the ECM mean really going for an Atlantic ridge - it doesn't normally follow the op to this extent for this kind of pattern. 

[Mike Poole]

I guess it's a personal preference thing as to how we rate the models tonight. I'd like settled conditions not bothered how hot, others may want late summer heat.  But here's the state of play at T240 from the models:

Those that have high pressure nosing in, FIM9, ECM, GFS:

And those with the Atlantic ridge UK trough, GEM and FV3:

Resolve this and we will have a good take on late August and possibly September too, more runs needed!

 

[mb018538]

Nothing particularly appealing on the 00z runs - a lot of cool members starting to appear too. Still not sure where the met are getting their long ranger from!

[danm]

On a positive note, both the GFS and UKMO push back any proper Scandi/North Sea trough and cool NW’erly winds until Saturday. Wednesday-Friday still has high pressure largely in control for most of the UK. Won’t be a heatwave but should still be pleasant enough. 

The ECM is similar. We do get a NW’erly airflow of sorts around the high pressure, but by next weekend we lose that NW’erly and high pressure is firmly back in control in the south with more of a SW/W airflow. 

Edited August 16, 2018 by danm

[Guest]

Well it looks as though we are now well and truly in the recent August default mode down here of continuous cloud and intermittent frontal activity. It doesn’t really matter what the weathers been like for the past ten weeks it matter what it’s like now and it’s dreadful this morning. Looks like the next few days will bring the dreaded TM airmass so away from the extreme east it looks like low cloud ceiling, very dull and mild. Longer term an inconsistent set of models and their scattergun ensembles lead me to believe very little sun and genuine .late summer warmth on the cards.

[summer blizzard]

Those of a warm persuasion may wish to avoid looking at the 0z, from day 9 onward it is wonderfully Autumn like.

Before day 9 the outlook from all models is pretty average. 

[Man With Beard]

But look at how this Mid-Atlantic ridge is expected to develop. Compare D9, D11 and D13. Watch how the oranges /reds work their way, on the majority of clusters, from left to right. This suggests to me a good chance of a ridge passing through the UK at a higher latitude than in the past 10 days, eventually turning the flow more southerly. 

[Frosty.]

I think the summer is over celebrations are premature, the Gefs 00z mean suggests a decent spell next week across southern uk with pressure relatively high and further ahead there is plenty of support for high pressure to be even more dominant!☺

Edited August 16, 2018 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

There's lots of high pressure / ridging bringing pleasantly warm and predominantly settled conditions on the Gfs 6z operational,  mainly across southern uk with most of the more unsettled and cooler weather further north but those more inclement conditions do become more widespread for a time before pressure rises generally and the pleasant surface conditions return and this time even northern uk is included..for a short time at least..so it's a mixed bag with the best of it further s / se and the worst further n / nw which is pretty normal as we enter the last 2 weeks of summer.☺

Edited August 16, 2018 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

But look at how this Mid-Atlantic ridge is expected to develop. Compare D9, D11 and D13. Watch how the oranges /reds work their way, on the majority of clusters, from left to right. This suggests to me a good chance of a ridge passing through the UK at a higher latitude than in the past 10 days, eventually turning the flow more southerly. 

Similar ideas on the 00z

[mb018538]

Still looks like an outside bet at the moment - most of the clusters remaining westerly based....cluster 4 raising a beacon for a substantial build of heights though. We will have to keep an eye out!

[Timmytour]

Was it one run of  the GFS that had a "batten down the hatches" depression crossing the south of the UK for the start of bank holiday weekend a couple of days ago?

I'm always intrigued by the way the GFS throws up an apparently rogue run from far out, then comes to revisit it in later runs. Won't surprise me to see weather alerts accompany the start of the bank holiday weekend....and not in a "don't go out in the sun" way!!! 

 

[Leo97t]

Wow very rapid change into agreement on poor weather. I admit that I didn't see that coming and neither did the met office 

[Mapantz]

10 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Wow very rapid change into agreement on poor weather. I admit that I didn't see that coming and neither did the met office 

Can you add a little meat to 'dem bones? Which charts? etc

Just a general glance at the GFS ensembles shows that there's not a huge amount of precipitation for much of England and  Wales, not much of a deviation in pressure, either.

[Frosty.]

I don't understand why there are doom and gloom comments, the GEFS 6z mean shows a north / south split next week, higher pressure and best weather further south but still a chance of some rain but the coolest and most changeable conditions further north and then there are strong signs that high pressure will become more dominant for most / all of the uk beyond next week with predominantly warm and settled weather.

Edited August 16, 2018 by Frosty.