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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

It is the first time I have seen the EC-GFS anomaly charts showing what they are this morning. Nothing on NOAA last evening to support such a swing to a NW flow as shown but it does show +ve heights well west of the UK. Looking back through my anomaly file it is many weeks since anything like as shown below   shows up!

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

In mid winter it would be greeted with great enthusiasm by our cold brigade

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Perhaps a bit more clarity, though with the tropical system in play things could change quickly/unexpectedly :

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1025724137849974784

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
42 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

It is the first time I have seen the EC-GFS anomaly charts showing what they are this morning. Nothing on NOAA last evening to support such a swing to a NW flow as shown but it does show +ve heights well west of the UK. Looking back through my anomaly file it is many weeks since anything like as shown below   shows up!

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

In mid winter it would be greeted with great enthusiasm by our cold brigade

im a bit surprised you said that john.. the noaa 8-14 day chart is pretty close to the ec chart although not as pronounced, it shows slight ridging southeast of greenland, over the azores too with troughing to our south, over southern europe and the western seaboard of the united states?.... or am i misundrestanding something here?

 

814day.03.gif

test8.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well I looked at the Gfs 00z operational and it shows autumnal weather right through once the heat clears away from the SE midweek but the Ecm 00z is more optimistic towards the end with high pressure ridging in from the sw / w.

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Hi everyone. Slightly alarmed to read all this doom and gloom talk this morning. Can anyone offer a glimmer of hope beyond next weekend? Whole of my family are in Cornwall for the week and feel like from reading the forums this morning we’re going to spend most of our time battening down the hatches and staring into the abyss!! Is this a LP that’s going to stall over us or can we at least take some hope that it will rattle through and we have Sunshine and showers? (Or better still it heads a bit further north and we may get some Azores ridging). 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
5 minutes ago, valledym said:

Hi everyone. Slightly alarmed to read all this doom and gloom talk this morning. Can anyone offer a glimmer of hope beyond next weekend? Whole of my family are in Cornwall for the week and feel like from reading the forums this morning we’re going to spend most of our time battening down the hatches and staring into the abyss!! Is this a LP that’s going to stall over us or can we at least take some hope that it will rattle through and we have Sunshine and showers? (Or better still it heads a bit further north and we may get some Azores ridging). 

Plenty of hope beyond next weekend. The LP next weekend will hopefully follow what has been happening all summer with it being further north. Also bear in mind thst the low for next weekend hasn’t even formed yet, so the models will chop and change a lot over the coming days.

I am prepared to stand corrected, but there are no signals supporting a trough ancbored overcthe U.K. for days on end.

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.

Not much to be positive about to be honest. About a 10c drop here in the SE come midweek and a major Atlantic influence bringing wind, and a lot more rain. 

A far cry indeed from the weather of the last three months. August curse strikes again. 

I see no signs of the settled and warm weather staying, or returning. 

Edited by matty007
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
7 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Not much to be positive about to be honest. About a 10c drop here in the SE come midweek and a major Atlantic influence bringing wind, and a lot more rain. 

A far cry indeed from the weather of the last three months. August curse strikes again. 

I see no signs of the settled and warm weather staying, or returning. 

Well let’s brIng some balance - the GFS mean for next weekend looks a whole lot better than the op witn higher pressure over the U.K., albeit still with a westerly influence.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I think the only thing that is clear is that current hot spell comes to an end by Wednesday.  After that my view is there will now be slightly more than a blip, maybe an intermission of more unsettled weather, low pressures and transient ridges, before the more settled weather retuns.  We'll see.  

Way out in FI though, you can see that the models don't know, here the GFS 6z and FV3 0z at T360.  Chalk and cheese.

image.thumb.jpg.fbe06c3bb3af2ca3cd0344af02a79a67.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.966636f6d8b6ce9b7fa6588d231dbae7.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

im a bit surprised you said that john.. the noaa 8-14 day chart is pretty close to the ec chart although not as pronounced, it shows slight ridging southeast of greenland, over the azores too with troughing to our south, over southern europe and the western seaboard of the united states?.... or am i misundrestanding something here?

 

814day.03.gif

test8.gif

Sorry mushy I stand by what I posted, remember I said it is the first signal for this pattern and it is ec-gfs, again noaa 6-10 in my view is not a lot like it. Sure is has a +ve area between Iceland and the UK. It does not have an actual ridge such as they both show. Let's see what all 3 look like in a couple of days. IF they are similar to the ec-gfs then we can believe that is going to be the upper air pattern by next weekend. If not then I suspect we will have what has been shown by all 3 over 2-3 days prior to this morning and that is some kind of westerly upper flow but not very strong. This would still allow for the possibility of ridging/troughing, at least, for a day or two in an area conducive to warmth and dryness especially the further SE one lives. I am unsure this morning which of these two versions may be with us this time next week. 60-40 on a westerly at the moment BUT we need a couple more outputs first.

 

Edited by johnholmes
spelling, as usual
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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Well let’s brIng some balance - the GFS mean for next weekend looks a whole lot better than the op witn higher pressure over the U.K., albeit still with a westerly influence.

I see nothing but cloud, frequent rain and tepid temperatures. I’m positive when I see positive, but there’s nothing positive in these charts. 

What ever way you cut it, it’s a major comedown. I was really hoping this year would buck the trend and deliver a great August, there’s so much potential with the major heat down south..but nope. 

This has been a phenomenal Summer no doubt, but a real shame that August has to ruin the show once again. 

All runs, GFS and ECM look uninspiring 

Edited by matty007
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Well the first week has been pretty damn good! So that’s a quarter of the month in the bank. Looks like we are heading towards mid month with more average conditions, but who’s to say the last 7-10 days won’t be hot again? We just don’t know.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
11 minutes ago, matty007 said:

I see nothing but cloud, frequent rain and tepid temperatures. I’m positive when I see positive, but there’s nothing positive in these charts. 

What ever way you cut it, it’s a major comedown. I was really hoping this year would buck the trend and deliver a great August, there’s so much potential with the major heat down south..but nope. 

This has been a phenomenal Summer no doubt, but a real shame that August has to ruin the show once again. 

All runs, GFS and ECM look uninspiring 

It’s August 5th today. Still 26 days to go. The outlook can change. When the models show unsettled, too many people just assume that it will stay that way.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

We are heading towards a cooler more changeable spell but looking at the extended GEFS 6z mean there are signs of hope that the azores high could ridge in soon after mid august.

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21_348_500mb.png

21_348_2mtmpmax.png

21_372_500mb.png

21_372_2mtmpmax.png

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well the first week has been pretty damn good! So that’s a quarter of the month in the bank. Looks like we are heading towards mid month with more average conditions, but who’s to say the last 7-10 days won’t be hot again? We just don’t know.

Unlikely to be honest. 

Once the Atlantic takes hold, especially this time of year, it rarely loses its grip. Only for very brief intervals at most. The long dry and warm conditions we’ve experienced have almost certainly gone. 

We have lost the very stubborn SSW flow we had and the high jet. 

Normal service has resumed 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
19 minutes ago, matty007 said:

 

Once the Atlantic takes hold, especially this time of year, it rarely loses its grip. Only for very brief intervals at most. The long dry and warm conditions we’ve experienced have almost certainly gone. 

 

I don't really buy that argument. There is no weather law that says, "its August now, the weather laws say Atlantic domination from whenceforth." The weather will do what it will do according to the circumstances of the time. That's true at any time of the year. 

Besides how do you explain summers that already Atlantic dominated going into Augusts and have actually improved? eg 1993 and 1998 where the Atlantic did lose its grip? 

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
27 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Unlikely to be honest. 

Once the Atlantic takes hold, especially this time of year, it rarely loses its grip. Only for very brief intervals at most. The long dry and warm conditions we’ve experienced have almost certainly gone. 

We have lost the very stubborn SSW flow we had and the high jet. 

Normal service has resumed 

 

 

It doesn’t look to be a full on Atlantic onslaught though. What evidence do you have, apart from a few model runs, that suggest the Atlantic will be the dominant force for the rest of August?

I don’t claim to be an expert, but from what I have read on here the background signals and teleconnections do not support the idea.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

EC clusters have backed away slightly from a warmer more settled mid month. First time in 4 days, so "more runs needed" :)

By 16th

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018080500_264.

Cluster 1 - ridge Atlantic, cooler air into UK possible fronts esp North and east

Cluster 2 - heights close to UK, centre's slightly north, settled and pleasantly warm by day

Cluster 3 - heights through UK, could be hot

Cluster 4 - trough UK, cool and wet

So back to a 50:50 between settled/less settled 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
1 hour ago, matty007 said:

Unlikely to be honest. 

Once the Atlantic takes hold, especially this time of year, it rarely loses its grip. Only for very brief intervals at most. The long dry and warm conditions we’ve experienced have almost certainly gone. 

We have lost the very stubborn SSW flow we had and the high jet. 

Normal service has resumed 

I think there have been times this has been said at many moments over the past six or so months and here we are now where westerlies have in general been very weak or brief.

To be honest the first 10 days of August suggest that the month would have started well.

126-777UK.GIF?05-6

Up to next weekend there would have been very little (if any) rain across a large swave of the UK with any rainfall coming from a few showers scattered around. The first Atlantic trough looks pretty feable with very little rain and it actually takes a good couple of days for the cooler air to reach the south east (Wednesday still looks very warm).

Next weekend looks to be the point where we could see more unsettled weather but at that range the approaching low could be toned down and looking further ahead whilst we retain winds from the west, again it doesn't look too unsettled.

ECM ens

EDM1-144.GIF?05-12   EDM1-192.GIF?05-12   EDM1-240.GIF?05-12

No major trough, okay it isn't blue skies and heat but it is hardly a disaster. No real issues with the GEFs either. I think the real danger here is that summer ends on a pretty non-descript note with a fairly warm and fairly dry westerly flow with only the north seeing any significant rain.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
  • Location: Singleton, Kent

What is the panic about? There’s nothing horrendous in any of the models. What’s wrong with barely any rain and 20-24 degrees? Yes, I’m talking SE.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
3 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Sorry mushy I stand by what I posted, remember I said it is the first signal for this pattern and it is ec-gfs, again noaa 6-10 in my view is not a lot like it. Sure is has a +ve area between Iceland and the UK. It does not have an actual ridge such as they both show. Let's see what all 3 look like in a couple of days. IF they are similar to the ec-gfs then we can believe that is going to be the upper air pattern by next weekend. If not then I suspect we will have what has been shown by all 3 over 2-3 days prior to this morning and that is some kind of westerly upper flow but not very strong. This would still allow for the possibility of ridging/troughing, at least, for a day or two in an area conducive to warmth and dryness especially the further SE one lives. I am unsure this morning which of these two versions may be with us this time next week. 60-40 on a westerly at the moment BUT we need a couple more outputs first.

 

Fair play john, thanks for explaining that. 

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
2 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s August 5th today. Still 26 days to go. The outlook can change. When the models show unsettled, too many people just assume that it will stay that way.

Thats because the models that show unsettled are most usually right.

Ive heard these 'its only early august' arguments many times before but most noticably in 06 and 13. 

Of course there are no set rules, no laws, and the current outlook might change but we can only comment on what the current data suggests and for the next 2 weeks its all eyes west as thats where the mean upper flow is predicted to be. 

Im a heat lover but also a realist. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
26 minutes ago, shaky said:

Much better gfs and ukmo 12z so far!!high further north for friday and saturday and not as much rain!!

Yes. Still a mainly westerly flow after the weekend but it’s all about trends.

Certainly a nice weekend in the south at least according to the 12z’s. And no U.K. trough.

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

What we're seeing in the models now is the slow transtition into normal UK standard weather patterns. Its not going to happen overnight from dry to wet, the unsettled "blips" will start becoming more frequent and prolonged while at the same time the dryer and warmer spells will slowly start becoming the "blips".  August is a sign that autumn is coming.

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