Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[Cheshire Freeze]

18z not really as enthusiastic about any long lived heat...

Top temperature looks to be 35c on this run in the SE, so quite similar to the last spell we just had.

We'll see

 

[Scorcher]

14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

18z not really as enthusiastic about any long lived heat...

Top temperature looks to be 35c on this run in the SE, so quite similar to the last spell we just had.

We'll see

 

It's one cooler run with very little support. What about the superb runs from the other models for heat? I don't buy the quick breakdown from the 18Z at all.

Edited July 29, 2018 by Scorcher

[Scorcher]

The BBC have just upgraded their temperature forecasts for later in the week- 31C now showing for London on Friday. More like mid 20s for NW England but could go higher as we get closer to the time. Looking good for another hot spell.

[summer blizzard]

Although it appears that the models have somewhat upgraded next weekends brief hot spell as they develop more of a cut-off low to force a plume the general outlook bar a few days at the end of the week thankfully looks a little bit more normal (warm and dry but not really oppressive).

Of more interest to me is the signal for the second half of the month as the GFS appears to have the current wave in the Pacific completing a full orbit from west to east. 

The Arctic state will have an influence on what occurs but this is a signal for pressure to build over/north west of the UK and quite a strong one should it remain (at this time of year, still warm to hot). 

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO is hot to very hot for next weekend

   

   

The 20C isotherm getting into the south of the UK as the weekend progresses.

The GFS less aggressive with the building of the heat as pressure remains higher over the UK, but even this would bring very warm conditions in the north and hot conditions in the south.

   

   

[northwestsnow]

UKMO looks absolutely baking hot this morning.

That is a plume right there at 120-144 hours..

[mb018538]

Well....not very often you see a chart like that at 144 hours! Ukmo going all in this morning!

[shaky]

Hmm interesting ecm looks similar to ukmo at 96 hours!!lets see where we go from here!!could be back in the oven from wednesday!!

[Weather-history]

11 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hmm interesting ecm looks similar to ukmo at 96 hours!!lets see where we go from here!!could be back in the oven from wednesday!!

ECM doesn't bring the hot plume up at least not by 144hrs and doesn't look it will with the high in that position.

[gottolovethisweather]

7 hours ago, Scorcher said:

The BBC have just upgraded their temperature forecasts for later in the week- 31C now showing for London on Friday. More like mid 20s for NW England but could go higher as we get closer to the time. Looking good for another hot spell.

Indeed, as before, underdoing Maximums, so at the extreme end, by Friday, I expect we'll see a 32c to 33c around somewhere. After that, might get warmer still. The first ten days of August was always a period to watch, as it was in 2003 and it could be a case of history repeating if not to the same levels, but still something noteworthy.

Edited July 30, 2018 by gottolovethisweather

[shaky]

Yup no go for the plume from ecm at 144 hours but still hot with high twenties!!

[mb018538]

ECM not agreeing with UKMO - which looks a bit isolated this morning with that level of heat. Perhaps a hot outlier....but with the models all having the high in slightly different positions, it could mean massive differences to maximum temps.



Quite a staggering amount of GFS members - around 50% - going for a plume of between 15-20c on the uppers on the 6th. Lots of scatter still there, so a lot to be ironed out.

[Summer Sun]

GEM peaks the heat on Saturday a fresher pattern gradually establishes after

 

Edited July 30, 2018 by Summer Sun

[tight isobar]

Taking all into account...

Then the ukmo is a high percentage outcome leaning forwards.

The ensembles notch a stark rise later week into weekend..then converge into a confused state...as they have previously at a crossroads of transition.

The overall precip/heat notch also allude to this scenario 'somewhat'!

Adding fuel to the fire is once again surface conditions flagging a rise/-or continuation of above av-conditions...(especialy midlands-south)

Pressure is also a very feasible out-via ukmo raw...and points towards a perhaps more clear upper pattern allowing more sunshine=a spike in temps..especialy locally in favoured spots..

All in all id expect a gradual, note via ens and ops- to come into line with a similar outlook/placements as early as today.

With a well noted upping especialy via supports/ens.  .

The heat being turned back on day by day going forwards...and some notable temps look nailed on.

Edited July 30, 2018 by tight isobar

[carinthian]

On ‎25‎/‎07‎/‎2018 at 09:28, carinthian said:

Its not very often you see a chart like this  (ecm anom temp 850hPa ) with a huge positive value as big as this out over the ocean to the west of Iberia. The horizonal transfer of heat North Westwards which is generally against the norm. So this unusual summer continues to throw many surprises and pumps up the heat in the early August period for much of Europe, especially Western Europe including much of The British Isles. The upper wind flow pattern projected in 10 days time shows a weak frictional layer with really nothing much to stop the thermal wind and increased warm air advection into the British Isles.  Possible records on the cards ?

C

With reference to the above post sent last Wednesday and despite the blip in the UK summer heat this weekend the nearby continent retained its heat and not very far away for the UK to tap into again. Our latest projections still show the transfer of heat North and West into Southern Britain during the forecast period 72h-144h along the lines of the UKMO model with a return to low 30Cs temps projected in places. Later projections into August week two still favour height rises to the North with a gradual transfer of the heat into NW Britain and slightly cooler N/E vector flow associated with lower heights into mainland Europe and possibly South East Britain.

C

[Met4Cast]

I can’t really see any sustained heat showing on any models - Looks to me a period of transient heat late this week/into the weekend before turning cooler again with a further chance of rain as low pressure systems return.

We’re probably looking at a period of transient weather as a whole, briefly hot followed by cooler with some rain, certainly nothing suggesting a sustained heatwave nor sustained unsettled weather.

 

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I can’t really see any sustained heat showing on any models - Looks to me a period of transient heat late this week/into the weekend before turning cooler again with a further chance of rain as low pressure systems return.

We’re probably looking at a period of transient weather as a whole, briefly hot followed by cooler with some rain, certainly nothing suggesting a sustained heatwave nor sustained unsettled weather.

 

No idea what charts you’re looking at but I can’t see any evidence for low pressure returning after midweek.

[SLEETY]

12 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I can’t really see any sustained heat showing on any models - Looks to me a period of transient heat late this week/into the weekend before turning cooler again with a further chance of rain as low pressure systems return.

We’re probably looking at a period of transient weather as a whole, briefly hot followed by cooler with some rain, certainly nothing suggesting a sustained heatwave nor sustained unsettled weather.

 

Must be looking at a different set of charts if you think that,or perhaps your unable to read the charts properly.Looks like turning hot again as we head into the weekend again,met office seem confident and ukmo been resolute in showing hot weather returning,gfs been struggling again as it always does in block setups.

[Summer Sun]

Some major heat in western Spain and Portugal later this week 45c for some maybe even a bit higher in one or two spots

EDIT

Think I can see 46c on Friday's chart

Edited July 30, 2018 by Summer Sun

[mb018538]

Indeed....



ppn average is zero or close to zero for the entire run. Wetter towards the NW and Scotland, as to be expected in these sort of set ups. Some places in the SE may see now ppn again for at least another 10 days.

[mushymanrob]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Must be looking at a different set of charts if you think that,or perhaps your unable to read the charts properly.Looks like turning hot again as we head into the weekend again,met office seem confident and ukmo been resolute in showing hot weather returning,gfs been struggling again as it always does in block setups.

which is what the poster you quoted said... but no model retains it past tuesday and a westerly upper flow the anomaly charts suggest supports the ops in suggesting we will get some sort of westerly flow, be it slack (as the current ecm) or more vigourous (as per gfs).  there might be further short lived hot spells, but its looking very average apart from the coming mini hot spell fri-mon.

[Met4Cast]

10 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Must be looking at a different set of charts if you think that,or perhaps your unable to read the charts properly.Looks like turning hot again as we head into the weekend again,met office seem confident and ukmo been resolute in showing hot weather returning,gfs been struggling again as it always does in block setups.

Where did I say it wouldn’t be turning hot at the end of the week and into the weekend? In fact I specifcally stated that it would be, maybe you’re the one that’s struggling to read things?

I said I don’t see any “sustained” heat. A couple of days and a weekend of hot weather isn’t what I’d call “sustained” but perhaps you have a different definition of the word.

Ensembles pretty much agree on no sustained “hot” weather but more rather, a mixed bag.

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Some major heat in western Spain and Portugal later this week 45c for some maybe even a bit higher in one or two spots

There's a 47c on the map for the Seville area on Saturday. Must be getting very close to the all time Spanish record of 47.3c or even the European record of 48.0c in Athens.

[Djdazzle]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Where did I say it wouldn’t be turning hot at the end of the week and into the weekend? In fact I specifcally stated that it would be, maybe you’re the one that’s struggling to read things?

I said I don’t see any “sustained” heat. A couple of days and a weekend of hot weather isn’t what I’d call “sustained” but perhaps you have a different definition of the word.

Ensembles pretty much agree on no sustained “hot” weather but more rather, a mixed bag.

The ensembles don’t really paint a clear picture. Many of the teelconnections suggest a warm settled August.

Still don’t see any LP in any of the models in the reliable timeframe.

[sunnijim]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

There's a 47c on the map for the Seville area on Saturday. Must be getting very close to the all time Spanish record of 47.3c or even the European record of 48.0c in Athens.

A forecast of a record breaker in Portugal on Sunday at 48c.

The usual idea in play again whereby the ukmo have greater data than we can view here, so with that in mind and forecasts I have seen/read this morning a record breaker at 50/50 in my view somewhere over England on Monday next week and a 20% chance in the extreme East of England on Tuesday.