Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[mother nature rocks]

Have to say GFS 12z has got me thinking WOWZERS!!!!

Complete ridge fest after Wednesday with two potential plume scenarios. 

That has to be a 8.5/10 for that run

MNR

[Singularity]

12 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

Have to say GFS 12z has got me thinking WOWZERS!!!!

Complete ridge fest after Wednesday with two potential plume scenarios. 

That has to be a 8.5/10 for that run

MNR

My teleconnection rating would be about that too, a good effort if a little slow off the mark and still slightly far west with the high centre... perhaps. Always some wiggle room with these things - else we’d reliably have very accurate day-by-day forecasts at over a week’s range!

UKMO looks close to the full 10, not sure if the Atlantic trough is set to dig down quite enough as of day 6 though. Hmm yes I am harsh it turns out .

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

5 hours ago, mother nature rocks said:

GFS 6z looks very high pressure dominated till the end of low res. Plume doesn’t make it on this run but still very warm nonetheless with uppers averaging out @12/14. So not to shabby.

Again, it’s only one run so no need to despair!!! 

The is coming home

MNR

Given that the post I'm quoting was as much of a ramp than an objective analysis, I trust that my cool ramping response will be treated as leniently by the moderators.  I think the poster might be surprised to learn that there are some down here in the south and east who are more likely to despair at the ECM 00z showing 20+C 850hPa temperatures than the 06z GFS indicating a merely hot spell of weather rather than daytime mazima of 39-40C which will undoubtedly cause an increase in hospital admissions. 

[Frosty.]

I really like how the ukmo 12z turns out at T+144 hours, i can only see it getting better and better with high pressure and increasing warmth which is the form following this cooler atlantic blip... I'm quietly confident that another very warm / hot spell is on the way from later next week onwards..look at that heat just to the south of the uk!

Edited July 28, 2018 by Frosty.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

UKMO 12z seems to suggest any plume will be further west than the recent example.  While I don't wish to inflict a heatwave on those in the west and south-west who do not want it, surely it's only reasonable for more areas to enjoy/endure plumes this summer?

Edited July 28, 2018 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Mike Poole]

17 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

UKMO 12z seems to suggest any plume will be further west than the recent example.  While I don't wish to inflict a heatwave on those in the west and south-west who do not want it, surely it's only reasonable for more areas to enjoy/endure plumes this summer?

Yes, I agree, I think the next plume if it happens will impinge the SW first, because of the build up of heat that might be advected towards the UK from that direction.  GFS 12z shows this too, T216:

It's quite impressive how far into the Atlantic the models are regularly predicting the very hot air will get further south.  Having said that most runs I've seen run the hot air  across Southern England to the SE pretty quickly even if they enter the SW first.  No guarantee there is going to be another plume yet, although it looks likely.

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z looking like a cracking run so far if the rebuild of summer '18 is your thing.  Here T168, high in place, low out west may assist in developing a plume later, let's see:

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192 strengthens case for a plume probably impinging the SW first:

Edit: maybe the heat going towards the SE actually at T216:

Edit: deep heat retracting, but resurgence of high pressure from the Azores at T240:

Edited July 28, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Not much comment about the Ecm 12z but I like it a lot, pressure gradually rising across the uk, becoming generally warm, indeed very warm or hot again across the south and becoming largely settled with plenty of sunshine..☺..just get rid of this cooler atlantic dross and back to the heat asap!..maybe even some more thunderstorms for the south later too

Edited July 28, 2018 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows the great weather coming back with high pressure / strong azores ridging and becoming very warm / hot across southern uk, especially southern / southeast england where temps would return to the high 20's / low 30's celsius. 

Edited July 28, 2018 by Frosty.

[Singularity]

ECM actually manages to drop the trough down in the mid-N. Atlantic on the 12z, but for some reason the low then moves due east, while south of the main ridging zone, a behaviour I can't recall ever witnessing with LP systems... except in the case of tropical disturbances. Surely that's not what the model just developed?!

  

There's also an extraordinary persistence of 20*C+ 850 hPa temps over the eastern N. Atlantic to the west of Europe. I've also never seen anything on that scale and intensity there! Incredible to think about what would probably transpire down the line from there given that another ridge would likely to move across the UK from the SW - the huge heat plume would head north and then make its way over to us from the west. Some moderation would obviously occur, but SSTs are high enough that the uppers could conceivably still be in the upper teens. We're at total fantasy range here though!

The model does do some really strange things these days and that east-moving disturbance is one of the finest examples I've seen this season. I do believe that an update early this year has led to some losses the Atlantic-Europe sector by way of exchange for verification gains when it comes to modelling the globe as a whole.

 

Regardless, one trend is inescapable - the model runs are producing higher SLP over Scandinavia. It's a stuttering process and pretty slow as well, but it's there, and ties in nicely with the Nino forcing background being picked up on. From a continuation of this trend along with increased persistence of a digging trough out in the N. Atlantic... need I say more? 

[Craig84]

Totally agree re the ECM’s strange goings on. With the frames being 24hrs apart, I’ve always enjoyed trying to work out what the next one will be, to some success.

But the last few days, I have no idea what it’s going to do next! The frames just don’t seem to stitch together logically if you know what I mean. 

[Mike Poole]

After the ECM ensembles it looks like the form horse is very much the re-ridging from the Azores that we saw for much of early summer, so lots of glorious summer weather, ECM mean at T240:

FIM9 at T228 has a similar idea

My expectations are that this type of scenario (which is lovely summer weather )  will continue to be shown by model output, as will the high temperature plume scenarios.  Who knows which will win, but both are a long way from the Atlantic dominated summers of recent years!

[Team Jo]

Had to move/hide some posts. Please can we keep this to model discussion, as oppose to a circling pit of blame where those who like heat are given a hard time, and those who prefer the cold are shouted down?

It is extremely hard to keep the balance in here, in fact it's been like it all year since we had the significant cold snap. I don't think anyone here wishes the ill effect of the weather on anyone, and it's a bit poor that people feel the need to infer that if someone is talking excitedly about an extreme, then they are wishing harm on people. I am one of those who is interested in the extremes for sure, but. I don't for one second wish that anyone ends up squashed flat by an EF5 tornado. Does this make me a terrible person also? No. It makes me a weather enthusiast.

If there isn't already (and I'm sure there is) then may I suggest that if there's the burning desire to debate the impacts of incoming heat/storms/whatever, then someone opens a thread for it. 

Thanks, please continue.

[JBMWeatherForever]

Overall it looks like the next hot spell may eventually include northern and western parts as well !  

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Overall it looks like the next hot spell may eventually include northern and western parts as well !  

Yes, I completely agree, I'm aware that while the northwest had a great spell in late spring, the July heatwave has had a SE focus.  I think the next phase will encompass for some time at least a UK high, and in any plume scenarios, maybe a lead in temperatures from the SW.  We all win at some point!  GFS next weekend shows the UK high.

Edited July 28, 2018 by Mike Poole

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, Craig84 said:

Totally agree re the ECM’s strange goings on. With the frames being 24hrs apart, I’ve always enjoyed trying to work out what the next one will be, to some success.

But the last few days, I have no idea what it’s going to do next! The frames just don’t seem to stitch together logically if you know what I mean. 

They will physically and mathematically, as that is how the model works, also how a human does it over a 24-36 hour period.

[summer blizzard]

No end to summer in sight tonight as ridging increases from days 6-8 especially and cements itself on GFS in particular.

Some differences between the Euro and GFS output at days 5 and 10 as we see the Euro put more strength into the jet stream and keep a flatter (though jet well north of the UK) pattern. 

[Sky Full]

The following charts show the four main models predictions for the 4th August (+144hrs):

                                           500s                                                          850s

UKMO        

ECM           

GFS            

GEM.        . 

All in broad agreement with a low pressure developing in the North Atlantic close to Iceland, as before, and the Azores high pushing in towards Northern Europe and the U.K.   The hottest uppers remain bottled up over Iberia and at this stage only the GEM indicates that they will be drawn north in later frames.  Even so, the charts above indicate a return to settled  conditions for most of the U.K. for a time with plenty of warmth and sunshine.  It does look to me that the blocking across Scandivia is weakening compared with earlier runs and if this verifies we could see more influence from the Atlantic by mid-August.

P.S.  It has to be said, in any normal UK summer we would probably be very happy to see the above conditions occur even two or three times, but this year they seem extremely ordinary!

Edited July 29, 2018 by Sky Full
.

[95 Degrees]

Bank!! 6z is majestic next week-end.

[mother nature rocks]

After yesterday’s GFS 12z run which was probably the best in a while, this mornings 0z was a slight step back but gaining strength again with the 6z. From 8.5/10 to 6.5/10 back to 7.5/10. 

Would not be surprised to see this afternoons run pushing back into 8.5 or 9/10 territory. 

Dont think the amount of heat the uk receives will be sorted out till tues/weds but what is nailed on is that the settled conditions will be back as of late weds!!! (see below)

MNR

Ps, just like to say thanks to Team Jo for the words last night, that was put in the most perfect way. Cheers 

Edited July 29, 2018 by mother nature rocks

[Summer Sun]

06z GFS shows temps hitting 42c in France next Sunday!!

The heat also returns quite widely for England and Wales mid-week onwards looks like a hot start to the opening weekend of the new football season

[Singularity]

As fine as the model runs are looking for the second half of the coming week, the pattern still doesn't look quite right to me. The problem being the upper-level Atlantic trough - UK-Scandinavia ridge configuration, which most models are only briefly having a go at building Thu-Fri before flattening the pattern out again.

 

This means that even as the surface pattern tries to establish a ridge through the UK and a trough digging down out west, enough eastward momentum is imparted from above that the pattern is unable to hold on for more than a few days. The weak upper westerly flow is also the reason for those east-moving lows on the N. flank of the major heat plume that GFS is now showing alongside ECM. So as strange as it looks, it does actually make sense if the upper pattern develops as the models currently depict. 

This, though, is where expectations differ when considering the El Nino-type background state; the jet pattern really shouldn't be that flat for this coming weekend.

So I'm not convinced that the major heat plume will let us off so lightly, especially given just how flat both the 00z and 06z  GFS runs have remained in the longer-term, which suggests the Nino-type state is barely even registering yet for that model. ECM looks a bit more like it longer-term and is enough to keep my mind open to the plume taking until beyond next weekend to deliver more than a glancing blow, but I do find the speed of LP movement on that particular run a bit hard to believe.

[Mike Poole]

As the windy and rainy spell has now arrived, maybe the models will be clearer on what's to come on the 12z runs tonight.  First UKMO at T144:

High pressure nosing in, with a low in the Atlantic that could produce plume potential later.  Why do the UKMO charts come out in such a weird order on Meteociel with the T96 first!?

Edit, 850s now out at same time, could get interesting if these are pushed further north:

ICON is getting the heat in quickly here at the end of the run, T180, similar shape to the heat to the south as UKMO actually.

Edited July 29, 2018 by Mike Poole

[mb018538]

Looking like a given to turn exceptionally hot across Iberia and France....it’s just how far north that heat can go. Looking very nice at day 4/5/6 on the 12z runs though, temps around the 30 mark in the south.