Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The models don't make much sense to me at the moment.... I thought the weather was supposed to turn horrible when the school holidays started??????

The GFS doesn't show the intense heat of recent runs but high pressure is firmly in charge, anchored right over the UK.

The really high uppers are mostly locked away in Iberia but we may just see a delay in the onset of the really high uppers. Temperatures by day into the upper 20s in most areas with nights perhaps more comfortable for sleeping.

Selfishly I was hoping Summer 2018 would scoop all of the following

- Hottest summer (should be on track if the 06z verifies?)
- Driest summer (the 06z is especially dry for most after Sundays autumnal blip)
- Hottest month (July 2006 may well be out of reach?)
- Hottest temperature (I presume these next 3 weeks may be the best opportunity for it).

Regardless, its still a super outlook for early August and I can see it being anticylonic like 1955, 1976 and 1984 with the risk of the odd cooler intrusion from the NW if the high anchors to the WSW.

We shall see....

dont you mean 1983?.... ok 84 was good too but 83 as a summer was better.. long hot and dry.

[Frosty.]

I've put together a best of from the GEFS 6z at various stages of the run which would tie in with the met office latest thoughts regarding the further outlook beyond the atlantic blip... we could be in for a good deal of high pressure centred over or very close to the uk during the next three weeks with the warmest / hottest conditions across southern uk but there could also be some plumey hot / humid thundery interludes during this period too, especially for the s / e. 

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12z looks increasingly settled as high pressure builds in towards T+144 hours and becoming warmer too..beyond that point I think it would become even warmer and more settled.

Edited July 27, 2018 by Frosty.

[Craig84]

UKMO showing a good recovery at 120, 144hrs.

Good to see the summer of 2018 also bucking the recent trend of summer troughs getting encased in higher pressure and stuck over the Uk for a week or more. 

 

Low lifting out nicely

 

 

Edited July 27, 2018 by Craig84

[mother nature rocks]

UKMO @144 seems more keen than GFS @144 to build in the ridge. GFS should catch up over the weekend. 

Readily thinking the next heatwave is firmly heading to our doorstep.

MNR

[danm]

UKMO looks glorious. A nice refreshing weekend to come sweeping away the intense heat and then back to a gradual warm up during the week with the high 20s expected. 

Edited July 27, 2018 by danm

[shaky]

What the hell has happened to gfs at 144 hours!!did not see that coming especially after viewing the ukmo!!ukmo is glorious by the way!!

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

dont you mean 1983?.... ok 84 was good too but 83 as a summer was better.. long hot and dry.

Signs of the UKMO beginning to come in to line with the NOAA charts Mushy as you mentioned earlier? High pressure over us and to our east and lower pressure emerging out in the Atlantic it seems. The GFS 12Z is a very strange run in all honesty, I imagine the next run will be very different.

[SMU]

Indeed UKMO builds the moderate heat into the SE again ( circa 25c ) as early as day 4 - with 30c a possibility on day 6 in the SW..

So all in all pretty much as originally planned ....

[mushymanrob]

15 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Signs of the UKMO beginning to come in to line with the NOAA charts Mushy as you mentioned earlier? High pressure over us and to our east and lower pressure emerging out in the Atlantic it seems. The GFS 12Z is a very strange run in all honesty, I imagine the next run will be very different.

lets hope so, but in an ironic twist, its possible that the noaa's have overcooked the azores trough, whilst underestimating this one for the weekend...

but ive seen the ops switch at 3 days after completely contradicting the noaas.. we will see ... obviously im in no hurry to end this wonderful heat.

[Frosty.]

The GEM 12z shows a marked improvement from the second half of next week, especially further south as high pressure builds in and it becomes very warm again across southern uk with temperatures into the high 20's pushing 30 celsius for the s / se..by the end of the run there are signs we would tap into major continental heat..in reality, that could occur sooner!☺

Edited July 27, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

GEFS 12z mean at T192 shows rock solid support for high pressure anchored over the UK, the real heat is held particularly to the SW which gives plenty of potential to develop a significant plume down the line:

I wonder if future runs will push things a little further east than this, given background signals?

Edited July 27, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Dominic Carey]

Fabulous output for the middle of next week onwards with more warm/hot weather to come.

[Northwest NI]

15 minutes ago, Dominic Carey said:

Fabulous output for the middle of next week onwards with more warm/hot weather to come.

Looks countrywide too

[Frosty.]

There's plenty of high pressure / strong azores ridging and increasing warmth, especially further south on the GEFS 12z mean...so, a short-lived cooler / fresher unsettled atlantic blip this weekend and early next week but it soon runs out of steam with the s / e improving first but then more widely from the second half of next week onwards...within this general set-up there would be potential for hot plumey humid thundery interludes from the near continent but the emphasis would be on largely settled warm / very warm weather nationwide.☺

Edited July 27, 2018 by Frosty.

[mother nature rocks]

Come on ECM let the plume fly north and give us a start of August to remember

Afterall we have had an end of May, the whole of June/July summer so far which will be reminisced about for many a year!!

its surely not to much to ask is it??

MNR

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is trending in the right direction next week with a ridge building north during the midweek period soon covering the uk and temperatures rising again too, especially further south / southwest with the 564 dam line encroaching into the south.

Edited July 27, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

Like where this ECM run is going actually, here's the T192, possibility of pushing the high further and dragging up a plume with hot air nicely poised to the SW:

Edit T216, heat advancing:

And this one finishes thundery in the south:

Edited July 27, 2018 by Mike Poole

[mother nature rocks]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 12z is trending in the right direction next week with a ridge building north during the midweek period soon covering the uk and temperatures rising again too, especially further south / southwest with the 564 dam line encroaching into the south.

Yes Frosty vast improvement on the ECM 12z. Apart from GFS a good set of 12z runs.

Summer 2018 is not finished yet!!!

[shaky]

Ecm much better than gfs and more like ukmo up to 144 hours!!make the most of the cool wet weather on sunday cos the drought continues thereafter!!

[Frosty.]

A real plumey end to the Ecm 12z for the south with increasingly hot and humid air incoming, would love to see days 11 / 12!

Edited July 27, 2018 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Wow the Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks fantastic with high pressure building in strongly!☺

Edited July 27, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensemble mean on its way, first the FIM9 at T198 has a huge anticyclone over the whole of the country, no IMBY complaints about this one!

All nicely supported by the ECM mean at T240:

If this mornings depressing discussion on here can be summed up as summer 2018 is dead, I say long live summer 2018! 

Edit: I get the impression ^ @Frosty. may be trying to out-emoji me!

Edited July 27, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

24 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Edit: I get the impression ^ @Frosty. may be trying to out-emoji me!

I tried..but failed ...anyway it looks like more great weather is on the way following the cooler unsettled blip..really nice Ecm / Gefs 12z means this evening.

Edited July 27, 2018 by Frosty.

[Singularity]

Fit to teleconnections out of 10:

ECM 6/10; halfway toward the digging Atlantic trough (just a bit too far east and north on this run) and would have had the ridge back into Scandi by day 7 had that unusual low not been held in place right in the way.

UKMO 8/10; better effort at the digging Atlantic trough and little sign of any stalled low to get in the way of further ridge extension into Scandinavia beyond day 6.

GFS 3/10; doesn’t dig the Atlantic trough down much at all and passes on several opportunities to build ridging back into Scandinavia.

GEM 7/10; closest to teleconnection signals with the Atlantic trough position in the 8-10 day range - just a bit too far northeast but the model is known to have a progressive bias with Atlantic origin lows. Scandi ridge extension partially achieved, a bit too much of a full displacement from the UK trying to unfold though.