Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[mother nature rocks]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Thank god the ECM 12z is not a hot run . It keeps the the real heat away right from T48 all the way to T240 . Still warm but nothing like this weeks heat . Good job as well

Ah that’s the catch!! Who’s to say the ECM 0z or subsequent runs after won’t be?? 

The weather will do as it pleases!!

MNR

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, mother nature rocks said:

I don’t know if I’m losing the plot with all this heat and sweating, but is it me or does the ECM seem to really slow things down tonight?? I can see uppers of 12 maybe a touch more but the ‘plume’ seems to be staying in situ. 

I know it’s one run so hopefully after Tamara’s excellent post earlier the only sleep I’ll be losing tonight will be due to the muggy conditions.

As frosty says something is definitely afoot

Yes the ECM has given us all a big dose of realism I think.

One of the the signs a heatwave/ cold spell could go awry as when the onset of the event keeps getting delayed. The forecast re-emergence of the heat keeps going back ever so slightly.

I've been sitting on the fence with regards to the potential very hot uppers next weekend. The high pressure has to build in exactly the right place to tap into the Iberian heat and the 12z GFS OP manages this.

However many of the ens don't. The high forms too far west and the intense heat remains locked away over Iberia or is released into the North Atlantic instead. The ECM keeps the heat down south due to the pressure building around the Azores instead of the UK. Too much energy also going over the top of the building high to allow it to migrate NE'wards to the UK.

Still 240 hours away and it is still a settled outlook even if we don't tap into the real heat.

However every piece of the jigsaw has to fall in the right place to get the exceptionally warm uppers and I wouldn't bet on it at this point.

[Frosty.]

A few tweaks here and there and the Ecm 12z would have ended hot but as it is, it still improves after next midweek with the azores ridge building in and becoming less fresh / warmer as time goes on, warmest further south with temps returning to the mid / upper 20's celsius..plenty of dry and sunny weather once the ridge builds in but an increasing risk of thundery showers later with a more unstable look to the run later on when it would be warmer and more humid again, especially across southern counties.

Edited July 26, 2018 by Frosty.

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

Ah that’s the catch!! Who’s to say the ECM 0z or subsequent runs after won’t be?? 

The weather will do as it pleases!!

MNR

It certainly could be different on the next run , but that's a few ecm op runs now Witch keep it warmish but not boiling . Hope it's right . This hot weather feels like it's been  down here forever . The big question is is there a pattern change coming ?

[Djdazzle]

ECM will come back in line tomorrow. The GFS and UKMO have taken steps back to heat, so I’d expect the ECM will do so too. The models have played with taking the high too far west, but thst seems to go against the views of some of the more knowledgeable posters on here.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yes the ECM has given us all a big dose of realism I think.

One of the the signs a heatwave/ cold spell could go awry as when the onset of the event keeps getting delayed. The forecast re-emergence of the heat keeps going back ever so slightly.

I've been sitting on the fence with regards to the potential very hot uppers next weekend. The high pressure has to build in exactly the right place to tap into the Iberian heat and the 12z GFS OP manages this.

However many of the ens don't. The high forms too far west and the intense heat remains locked away over Iberia or is released into the North Atlantic instead. The ECM keeps the heat down south due to the pressure building around the Azores instead of the UK. Too much energy also going over the top of the building high to allow it to migrate NE'wards to the UK.

Still 240 hours away and it is still a settled outlook even if we don't tap into the real heat.

However every piece of the jigsaw has to fall in the right place to get the exceptionally warm uppers and I wouldn't bet on it at this point.

I think we have circa 20 days, tops, to break any ultimate heat record. After that, summer will be dying on its backside in terms of optimal potential...thank the lord!

I think if we fail to tap into the most of the heat next weekend, us that don't want upper 30s are in the clear for this season...

Edited July 26, 2018 by CreweCold

[Winter80s]

All Today storms materialise.  Tomorrow hotter than predicted earlier.  Sat/Sun wet weather being downgraded.  We see best summer 2018 soon.  Cant wait.

[Frosty.]

As I said a bit earlier, the GEFS 12z mean will cheer up those of us who can't get enough of this gorgeous summer with high pressure / strong azores ridging returning .becoming very warm / hot again across at least the southern half of the uk..more please, much more!!

[mushymanrob]

12 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

.  my only concern with them is that the pattern the 8-14 day chart has long predicted is taking a while to show in the 6-10 dayer, because obviously the 6-10 dayer is more accurate of the two, but its moving there.

...... and there you go..... at a confidence rating of 4/5 the azores trough is now on the 6-10 day chart.  however this is not a copy and paste of the 8-14 ive been posting, and it shows quite a stiff westerly across northern areas with high pressure to our  south ?  i dont think this is so condusive for plumes, but its still promising high pressure at least for the southern half of the uk with plenty of heat.  but its the absence of the azores low on the gfs and ecm so far that has possibly held back the hotter runs.  so the 6-10 day chart isnt now as promising as the less accurate 8-14 day chart. but they are imho still more promising for heat then the current gfs/ecm runs.

todays 8-14 dayer continues with its previous evolution, building pressure over the uk (at the expense of a diminishing scandinavian high). so from midweek next through to nearly mid august at least there is a lot of dry sunny warm/hot weather to be enjoyed, but possibly a lessening of the extreme heat possibility?

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z mean looking very good for rebuild of the heat. Here T240:

The T850 chart interesting as it's a mean, plenty of opportunity from that mean chart for individual runs to bring significant heat to our shores.  It's the big build up of heat just south that is the story.  

[mother nature rocks]

8 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

...... and there you go..... at a confidence rating of 4/5 the azores trough is now on the 6-10 day chart.  however this is not a copy and paste of the 8-14 ive been posting, and it shows quite a stiff westerly across northern areas with high pressure to our  south ?  i dont think this is so condusive for plumes, but its still promising high pressure at least for the southern half of the uk with plenty of heat.  but its the absence of the azores low on the gfs and ecm so far that has possibly held back the hotter runs.  so the 6-10 day chart isnt now as promising as the less accurate 8-14 day chart. but they are imho still more promising for heat then the current gfs/ecm runs.

todays 8-14 dayer continues with its previous evolution, building pressure over the uk (at the expense of a diminishing scandinavian high). so from midweek next through to nearly mid august at least there is a lot of dry sunny warm/hot weather to be enjoyed, but possibly a lessening of the extreme heat possibility?

Evening Mushy. Do you expect the GFS op and ECM det to start showing this over the coming few days to tie in with NOAA??? Cheers in advance MNR

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM 12z mean looking very good for rebuild of the heat. Here T240:

The T850 chart interesting as it's a mean, plenty of opportunity from that mean chart for individual runs to bring significant heat to our shores.  It's the big build up of heat just south that is the story.  

Will be interesting to see whether we see the jet ramping up as we progress through August, given warm air pooling in such a widespread manner to our S and, by that point, cooler air starting to emerge further to our N. 

Even further ahead, it could be a turbulent autumn ahead given the abnormally warm sea temperatures around our shores and to our SW. One would imagine there could be quite the thermal gradient setting up eventually!

Edited July 26, 2018 by CreweCold

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM has been quite persistant in not really developing any real Atlantic troughing next week and sticks with a fairly flat jetstream which gradually weakens which allows heights to slowly rise.

      

The heat is never really allowed to build. 

Looking at the GFS at day 7

You can see that dip in the Atlantic where cooler air sinks southwards which allows the heat over Spain to slowly push northwards creating the hotter conditions for week 2.

The UKMO is more extreme with this at day 6 with a clear trough developing to allow heights to build strongly north east over the UK.

The UKMO solution would be the one to pin your hopes on (If you like heat), even if you get a UK wide cooler day on Tuesday.

Just for clarity, here are the ECM ens, using the same frames as the ECM

      

Plenty of hotter outcomes in there in my opinion with a stronger ridge over the UK later on with a clearly marked shallow Atlantic trough helping to push the heat northwards.

Plenty of scope for changes in the coming days. Still a chance of getting close to the UK July record tomorrow (I think the all time record is safe and frankly I think it was never under threat).

 

[Mike Poole]

13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Will be interesting to see whether we see the jet ramping up as we progress through August, given warm air pooling in such a widespread manner to our S and, by that point, cooler air starting to emerge further to our N. 

Even further ahead, it could be a turbulent autumn ahead given the abnormally warm sea temperatures around our shores and to our SW. One would imagine there could be quite the thermal gradient setting up eventually!

I don't think the jet has a cat in hell's chance of making a significant breakthrough in August (famous last words), one reason perhaps because of the sea surface temperatures around the UK that you mention.  But into autumn, it will certainly be interesting when the payback comes, but is the Arctic going to be as cold as it usually is at that time?  Here Atlantic SST and anomaly, high as I've seen round Southern UK, over 20C in SW.

[Summer Sun]

Euro 4 doesn't seem to be going above 31c tomorrow a bold prediction from the met office who continue to go for 37c

 

Edited July 26, 2018 by Summer Sun

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Euro 4 doesn't seem to be going above 31c tomorrow a bold prediction from the met office who continue to go for 37c

 

Well it reached 35’C around London today with lower uppers. Only thing that might scupper it is cloud cover.

[mushymanrob]

35 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

Evening Mushy. Do you expect the GFS op and ECM det to start showing this over the coming few days to tie in with NOAA??? Cheers in advance MNR

Yes. That is what usually happens when theres disagreement. The noaas ' win' nearly always although perhaps not 100% accurate everytime. But no model is. 

But for balance, i expected them to agree with the noaas by now. So who knows, they might be wrong. It happens.

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Euro 4 doesn't seem to be going above 31c tomorrow a bold prediction from the met office who continue to go for 37c

 

I reckon the Met Office will be working overtime to get this right as a matter of pride, I would go for their analysis if they have been bold enough to state it publicly, over anyone. Especially the BBC.  

From my look at the models. ARPEGE 12z had 35C into the far East. Could easily be a couple more in places.

Longer term, here's the 12z FIM9 at T222:

Again that platform of heat, any inclination to bring winds from the south-ish!

And the FV3/GFS parallel at same time, perfectly positioned high, 20s into the SW:

I think next weekend more likely for the all time record!

[Leo97t]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I reckon the Met Office will be working overtime to get this right as a matter of pride, I would go for their analysis if they have been bold enough to state it publicly, over anyone. Especially the BBC.  

From my look at the models. ARPEGE 12z had 35C into the far East. Could easily be a couple more in places.

Longer term, here's the 12z FIM9 at T222:

Again that platform of heat, any inclination to bring winds from the south-ish!

And the FV3/GFS parallel at same time, perfectly positioned high, 20s into the SW:

I think next weekend more likely for the all time record!

As always great post. Agree with everything you said and as the met office got the highest temp today to the nearest 0.1C right today I am willing to trust them as they must be completely confident to go for such a prediction with their reputation on the line and yes the real record breaking possibilities come in early to mid August 

[Singularity]

I expect the human input to the NOAA charts is an adjustment of the multi-model super-ensemble mean east, applied due to past experience of the models making too much of MJO-related forcing compared to the tropical-extratropical mechanisms captured by GLAAM and the GWO (for example).

So currently, the models read in an MJO-related signal for reduction in Scandinavian, but then take it to far. This spring and summer, ECM’s done this more than even GFS.

For whatever reason, UKMO has not proved anywhere near so prone to this overreaction in recent months. In fact I think it may go slightly too far the other way, with this being responsible for it being the last to latch onto just how far into the UK the trough looks to make it this Sunday.

 

Anyway - the result of all the above is that I’ll be truly shocked if the ridge actually spends as long centred W or SW of the UK as the 12z ECM and GEM runs depict.

[Mike Poole]

Here ICON 18z at T18!

Sure there's going to be some hot temperatures and 37C may be on the cards, but only in the Eastern most places, will be interesting to see what actually is recorded.  Next week is another matter.

Edited July 26, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Captain Shortwave]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Euro 4 doesn't seem to be going above 31c tomorrow a bold prediction from the met office who continue to go for 37c

 

I actually had a look at this, specifically at cloud cover. The Euro4 gives close to 100% cloudcover at the middle levels for most of the day tomorrow. It could happen but if the sun is shining then that prediction will probably be too low.

It would not be the first time this has happened either.....

The GFS is still going pretty high for the maximum tomorrow across East Anglia (35c on the pub run).

 

Edited July 26, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[cobby]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

I don't think the jet has a cat in hell's chance of making a significant breakthrough in August (famous last words), one reason perhaps because of the sea surface temperatures around the UK that you mention.  But into autumn, it will certainly be interesting when the payback comes, but is the Arctic going to be as cold as it usually is at that time?  Here Atlantic SST and anomaly, high as I've seen round Southern UK, over 20C in SW.

SST 20c in Penzance previous July record was 19.7c

https://www.seatemperature.org/europe/united-kingdom/penzance.htm

[MattStoke]

GFS ups tomorrow’s max to 35’C. Add the usual 2/3’C, and the July record could well be under threat.

[Cheshire Freeze]

At just 78 hours out, the GFS 18z has shifted the core of that Atlantic low 300 miles E of its position on the 12z