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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Just now, carinthian said:

Firming up of opinion over here for a strong high pressure cell to develop over the NW of Britain by the start of week two in August. Almost similar as to the start of the summer with heat and sunshine transferring back to the North and West. Wind vectors back to between east and north as falling heights over mainland Europe. Interesting thoughts. See if the main models take this up further into the outlook. Possibly UK Met office will start to indicate this development soon.

C

And also what i mentioned this morning about indicattions of the high going slightly further west on recent runs and no where near the hot air we could have potentially been looking at!!still early days though so could change!!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Euro does seem odd to me as it flattens the pattern a little after this weekend. 

GFS is picking up a retrogressive signal likely resulting from the current bursts of convection in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific (the wave is static rather than really moving east a lot).

In the meantime GFS does have a few days of warm to hot weather peaking at day 8. 

GFSOPEU00_192_2.png

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean longer term looks just as good as yesterday etc.. strengthening ridge building in and temperatures on the rise, especially further south later next week onwards. 

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-240.gif

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MASSIVE difference out to 117hrs on the GFS 06Z compared to the 00Z, Low pressure remains very close to the UK as ridging completely fails to build Monday/Tuesday and away from the extreme SE most places get the best part of an inch of rain. Models only going one way this morning and it isn't towards another heatwave in the realistic time frame........

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but hate the cold
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
16 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

A very CRUDE way of 'following the record chances within the ensembles is to review the table of 850s

The max lapse rate we seem to achieve is 19c in optimal conditions

So

19c + 850 temp gives you your TMAX

I spy a 41.2C Max

170F5BAD-F02D-4004-8A22-0FED9AD94FFA.thumb.png.11090d771d6e39c63825b6f9ff439e83.png

 

wow if that actually happens then not only will we have a new record but we will also have a higher temperature then Japan's highest temperature this week that was broken at 41.1C 

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
1 minute ago, Atmogenic said:

wow if that actually happens then not only will we have a new record but we will also have a higher temperature then Japan's highest temperature this week that was broken at 41.1C 

Don't worry it wont

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Posted
  • Location: Yateley, NE Hampshire (Berks/Surrey borders)
  • Location: Yateley, NE Hampshire (Berks/Surrey borders)
1 minute ago, Atmogenic said:

wow if that actually happens then not only will we have a new record but we will also have a higher temperature then Japan's highest temperature this week that was broken at 41.1C 

That was yesterday. A lot has changed since then!

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7 minutes ago, Rob K said:

That was yesterday. A lot has changed since then!

Indeed, hoping the 06Z GFS Ops is an even bigger outlier than the 00Z. Good to see around 168hrs GFS starts getting its act together however given the time frame and backdowns we've seen for this weekend and early next week confidence is very, very low.

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: High pressure, snow + alll extremes of weather
  • Location: Bristol

As Singularity said yesterday, the models are playing around with the positioning of high pressure and therefore where the really hot uppers go will change with it.

But when we have charts like this in the mid range, with such a large area of hot uppers so close by, I don’t think anything can be ruled out... 

 

EF50A767-5DF2-403B-8D81-D548950EAC98.jpeg

D8E83396-5AA7-4B5F-83E2-5BBA4893BBF2.jpeg

Edited by Craig84
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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
25 minutes ago, Alderc said:

MASSIVE difference out to 117hrs on the GFS 06Z compared to the 00Z, Low pressure remains very close to the UK as ridging completely fails to build Monday/Tuesday and away from the extreme SE most places get the best part of an inch of rain. Models only going one way this morning and it isn't towards another heatwave in the realistic time frame........

The heatwave was never in the realistic time frame and has always been showing from approximately 2nd August. This run shows high temps and high pressure again from the 2nd August, exactly the same as the past few days.

Edited by SizzlingHeat
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Posted
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
Just now, SizzlingHeat said:

The heatwave was never in the realistic heatwave and has always been showing from 2nd August approx. This run shows high temps and high pressure again from the 2nd August, exactly the same as the past few days.

Indeed. Some people should jump to the ramp and moan thread as they insist on looking at individual runs rather than the bigger picture.

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Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

MASSIVE difference out to 117hrs on the GFS 06Z compared to the 00Z, Low pressure remains very close to the UK as ridging completely fails to build Monday/Tuesday and away from the extreme SE most places get the best part of an inch of rain. Models only going one way this morning and it isn't towards another heatwave in the realistic time frame........

It's odd because as the models have seemingly increased the risk of rain over the next few days the met office forecast for my area has reduced the risk. Now showing a 60% risk tonight and much less over the following three days.

I really want some rain so I'm hoping the GFS is right.

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

The 6z run, once again shows high pressure and high temperatures beginning the middle of next week. After a brief cooler and more unsettled spell, as has been the case for many days now, the strong signal for high pressure remains. These are the charts for Thursday to Saturday at the moment. Temps widely in the low thirties. 

It's very annoying when people persistently troll this forum with rubbish. 

Have a look for yourselves....where is the downgrade? I don't see one I just see lots more sunshine and hot weather :):)

It's nice that it's within 162 hours now not 240 :)

Uploaded Saturday to Thursday by mistake

GFSOPEU06_222_1.png

GFSOPEU06_201_1.png

GFSOPEU06_177_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Well pretty much the same pattern in the medium to long term   Warm then getting hotter as the days go on,     Whilst the very hot uppers are so close in Europe  wouldnt take much to tap into them   Just for fun but 20 uppers approaching st ives

gfs-1-240.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
34 minutes ago, Alderc said:

MASSIVE difference out to 117hrs on the GFS 06Z compared to the 00Z, Low pressure remains very close to the UK as ridging completely fails to build Monday/Tuesday and away from the extreme SE most places get the best part of an inch of rain. Models only going one way this morning and it isn't towards another heatwave in the realistic time frame........

You do talk some negative nonsense at times, I was just about to comment on how much BETTER the 06Z is than the 00Z. We already know there is going to be a cooler and more unsettled period over this weekend, into early next week. It's what's after that that most of us are intrigued by, and GFS is now showing a slow build of some serious heat after midweek.

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6 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

You do talk some negative nonsense at times, I was just about to comment on how much BETTER the 06Z is than the 00Z. We already know there is going to be a cooler and more unsettled period over this weekend, into early next week. It's what's after that that most of us are intrigued by, and GFS is now showing a slow build of some serious heat after midweek.

Yes Chris is starting to sound worryingly like the Daily Express with his RANDOM capitalisation of impact words.

The GFS 06z looks good to me too with an unsettled, fresher weekend and beginning of next week followed by a swift and strong rebuild of pressure. The first weekend of August looks VERY settled with plenty of sunshine and very warm temperatures with the high slap bang over the UK. Further ahead, as you say, signs of a slow build of HEAT from the south 

06_198_mslp500.png?cb=517 06_240_mslp850.png?cb=517 

Edited by Liima
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Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales

I would just note that the GFS 00+ run.. and the 06+ run,. were very different. 

00+ showed a complete topsy turvy out look compared to the 06+ ( and many others ) 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
1 minute ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Wow a proper breakdown this time for the SW UK, rain, gales and just look at those temps! Mid teens here in Wales on Sunday

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

Will be nice to have some rain before the heat returns in a weeks time :)

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Late morning all :)

One of the runs yesterday showed a classic retrogressing HP into Greenland - a beautiful thing though not for fans of heat as the NNE air flow introduced would cool things down significantly.

The modelling of next weekend's push of heat remains from clear - the 06Z OP looks to be heading down a very toasty route with the 20c 850HPA reaching the SW on Monday 7th:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018072606/gfs-1-276.png?6

Two points though a) the heat keeps getting delayed and hasn't made it into low-res  and b) there remains considerable variation (compare with a relatively cooler 00Z).

If you want heat, the HP has to disrupt east to bring up the hot air from Iberia - if it retreats west, the flow will be from the N or NW and the hot air stays to the south. The former offers much more storm potential, the latter would likely see a quieter transition to cooler conditions.

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
Just now, ancientsolar said:

I would just note that the GFS 00+ run.. and the 06+ run,. were very different. 

00+ showed a complete topsy turvy out look compared to the 06+ ( and many others ) 

 

The 00z was the coolest and wettest ensemble member of the suite. A lot of the 00z members showed the same as the 6z operational :)

so we are back on track

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Yes... whatever went on with the 00z GFS and ECM was hopefully just a blip, perhaps from an overreaction to the latest observed tropical convection pattern (which is instead expected to be strongly overridden next week).

Regardless, some trouble resolving the trough-ridge interplay continues with respect to the first half of next week. I sense the issue here is that the overriding signal is, broadly speaking, one of 'more Atlantic trough, more downstream ridge', but the models historically have been seen to struggle with the ridge-building aspect of this duality.

Let's see if we can avoid the sort of complications that have opened the door to more Atlantic influence this weekend than would otherwise have been the case. The 00z GFS parallel found one in the form of a shallow low detaching from the trailing front early Monday - the main Atlantic trough was then able to stay influential until Thursday. Then again, corrections to the upstream pattern may well render such possibilities null anyway.

 

p.s. UKMO still not as cool and windy as the other models for Sunday based on the +96 hour chart which shows the secondary low having been absorbed into the parent trough much sooner than the other models are predicting. Amazing how this model continues to resit the idea of a more autumnal outcome.

Rukm961.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
27 minutes ago, stodge said:

Late morning all :)

One of the runs yesterday showed a classic retrogressing HP into Greenland - a beautiful thing though not for fans of heat as the NNE air flow introduced would cool things down significantly.

The modelling of next weekend's push of heat remains from clear - the 06Z OP looks to be heading down a very toasty route with the 20c 850HPA reaching the SW on Monday 7th:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018072606/gfs-1-276.png?6

Two points though a) the heat keeps getting delayed and hasn't made it into low-res  and b) there remains considerable variation (compare with a relatively cooler 00Z).

If you want heat, the HP has to disrupt east to bring up the hot air from Iberia - if it retreats west, the flow will be from the N or NW and the hot air stays to the south. The former offers much more storm potential, the latter would likely see a quieter transition to cooler conditions.

You mean High Res? 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

I sincerely hope this is wrong as today is hot enough!

GFSOPUK06_324_17.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

GFS at days 8-10 is pretty spectacular. 1025mb pressure, relatively low humidity and a 15C isotherm in the south/south west. 

GFSOPEU06_216_33.png

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