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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
5 minutes ago, shaky said:

What a horrible horrible gfs for sunday wet right across england!!that low seems to have come right over the uk now!!not good!

That chart looks far worse than what it is. I doubt it will be as wet as it looks.

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gfs 18z now has 12hrs of rain and maxes of just 17c on Sunday here and through large parts of England - typical the one day when I’ve had something booked for weeks that can’t be rearranged!  

Maldives gfs trending towards ecm, takes ages to settle down with low pressure still in charge as heights fall to build - big bump down to Earth after the 12z run, all being even this will hopefully be a cold wet outlier and unsettled outlier  through the weekend and into early next week.

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

gfs 18z now has 12hrs of rain and maxes of just 17c on Sunday here and through large parts of England - typical the one day when I’ve had something booked for weeks that can’t be rearranged!  

Do you honestly believe it will happen like that? I wouldn’t even be remotely worried by a model that is still making corrections at T24!

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2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

gfs 18z now has 12hrs of rain and maxes of just 17c on Sunday here and through large parts of England - typical the one day when I’ve had something booked for weeks that can’t be rearranged!  

I'd use the high-res models for actual rain intensity and longevity rather than the vague GFS blobs. 12 hours of rain seems excessive and doubtful.

More rain possible on Wednesday for northern and western areas. Again a little further south and more influential than the 12z, consequently the heat from the south pushed back but still looking primed and ready for next weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 minutes ago, Liima said:

I'd use the high-res models for actual rain intensity and longevity rather than the vague GFS blobs. 12 hours of rain seems excessive and doubtful.

More rain possible on Wednesday for northern and western areas. Again a little further south and more influential than the 12z, consequently the heat from the south pushed back but still looking primed and ready for next weekend.

Thankfully a lot can happen between now and next weekend model wise, even with excellent agreement. Many failed winter easterlies have taught us that. 

In the mean time, it looks like some useful heavy and perhaps thundery rain is on the cards for this weekend. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

GFS 18z is definitely much cooler next week - before it showed 26-31 for most of England, now 19-24C, so pretty average. Certainly not bad though. I wouldn't place much faith in GFS rainfall charts either as they have been wrong more times than right.

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton

Looks like high pressure taking over back end of next week - on tonight's GFS 18z's.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
39 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Nice try...you'd think the hot spell had been cancelled from this post...not so! The ECM is still very good if it's hot weather you're after- just not quite as spectacular as we might have hoped.

This could all change in the morning again.

Nice try ? Wasn't saying the hot weather was cancelled . Try a pair of these fella .  I said pressure starts to fall over Europe and the Atlantic . If you run it through from 192 to 240 hrs pressure starts to fall quite a bit .  But like you say could change in the morning .

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

uppers over 20 c approaching from the South /sw in about 9-10 days from the 18z gfs ,well lol that comes off,temp records will be gone.yet some in here thought it was a poor run for heat,ok guys whatever your smoking .

 

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While still good the ensemble bulge indicating another hot spell on the 18z  was slower generally to warm things up back up next week, showed the warmth over a much shorter duration and with a much bigger spread past day 7/8 than the 12z run so certainly a less convincing run than the 12z and probably more in line with the ecm 12z. 

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Another step backwards this morning, again the weekend looking ever more unsettled, temps really struggling to get out the high teens in most places away from the extreme south east in a blustery showers and Sunday looking a real yucky day. Next week both UKMO and GFS struggle to settle things down and while gfs gives a couple of days Thursday/Friday with higher temps another extended spell of really hot whether looks more like an outlier this morning compared to the most likely outcome 12hrs ago. 

To me this is looking like summers biggest wobble so far, clearly more than a two day blip where temps only fall back into the mid 20s as was looking the case a couple of days ago.

Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Not tryin to put a dampner on anything but one thing ive noticed is the high seems to be creeping ever so westwards with each run recently and if that continues we can forget bout the next heatwave lol!!and also gfs is really unsettled for sunday!!ecm is reluctant to build strong heights in and the longer this takes the higher the chance of things going wrong for heat lovers!!ive not seen the ecm go for the heatwave full on for the last 48 hours now so it is starting to be a concern for me at least!it needs to come aboard and fast!!ukmo best output this morning!!

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

ECM is a disappointment but it's only one run. The signal for of high pressure is still very high. Each run will show a different position. Will look again this evening after the 12s to see how things are going 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
24 minutes ago, shaky said:

Not tryin to put a dampner on anything but one thing ive noticed is the high seems to be creeping ever so westwards with each run recently and if that continues we can forget bout the next heatwave lol!!and also gfs is really unsettled for sunday!!ecm is reluctant to build strong heights in and the longer this takes the higher the chance of things going wrong for heat lovers!!ive not seen the ecm go for the heatwave full on for the last 48 hours now so it is starting to be a concern for me at least!it needs to come aboard and fast!!ukmo best output this morning!!

I wouldn't get too disheartened, see Mushy's post from last night about the anomaly charts- these tend to be accurate at longer range than the ops, which have seemed to to and fro a lot over the past week or two. I'm not buying this idea of the high moving westwards. I reckon this is yet another cool outlier from the ECM this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

I wouldn't get too disheartened, see Mushy's post from last night about the anomaly charts- these tend to be accurate at longer range than the ops, which have seemed to to and fro a lot over the past week or two. I'm not buying this idea of the high moving westwards. I reckon this is yet another cool outlier from the ECM this morning.

well they are being consistent which is something the gfs and ecm arent really being.... plus, the anomaly charts support tamaras outlook... whilst no one, no suite, is infalible, id put my money on the consistent one with a proven track record of being more accurate. it would be very rare for the consistent anomaly charts to be completely wrong.  my only concern with them is that the pattern the 8-14 day chart has long predicted is taking a while to show in the 6-10 dayer, because obviously the 6-10 dayer is more accurate of the two, but its moving there.

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At least the gfs ops was right down at the bottom of the pack for the most part. However ecm yet to buy into any real heat and appears to be potential for high pressure to build further west?

Also hard to comprehend the temps most of us have now at 9am won’t be exceeded potentially right through sat, sun and Monday

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Posted
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

At least the gfs ops was right down at the bottom of the pack for the most part. However ecm yet to buy into any real heat and appears to be potential for high pressure to build further west?

Also hard to comprehend the temps most of us have now at 9am won’t be exceeded potentially right through sat, sun and Monday

90% Percentile of the ensembles on 6 Aug on GFS is 30.4 degrees for the SE. Not sure what else you are asking for. 

The weekend will be mid 20s with possibly a few showers before heat builds from Monday onwards. Really can't see any change to what has been shown for the last week or so. Summer to continue as it were.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looking at the ECM 00z mean tomorrow will be the peak of the heat down south further warm spells are of course still likely but we'd probably be looking at the mid to upper 20's as opposed to the mid to upper 30's with high teens to low 20's further north

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2 minutes ago, seb said:

90% Percentile of the ensembles on 6 Aug on GFS is 30.4 degrees for the SE. Not sure what else you are asking for. 

The weekend will be mid 20s with possibly a few showers before heat builds from Monday onwards. Really can't see any change to what has been shown for the last week or so. Summer to continue as it were.

 

 

Mid 20's are you joking, its now looking like it'll rain most of the day sunday away from the extreme SE. maxes will be limited high teens for a large part of the country. Admittedly being a bit overly pessimistic about the chances for heat next week however got to counteract all this ridiculous talk of it being nearly 40c.......

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Just doing an op by op comparison for the ECM 0z, there has been a clear trend in moving this weekend/Monday's Atlantic encroachment further south and east. 

22nd July T168:

ECM1-168.GIF?00

23rd July T144:

ECM1-144.GIF?00

24th July T120:

ECM1-120.GIF?00

25th July T96:

ECM1-96.GIF?00

...and this morning T72:

ECM1-72.GIF?26-12

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Mid 20's are you joking, its now looking like it'll rain most of the day sunday away from the extreme SE. maxes will be limited high teens for a large part of the country. Admittedly being a bit overly pessimistic about the chances for heat next week however got to counteract all this ridiculous talk of it being nearly 40c.......

I said SE, didn't I? It was always going to be cool with showers away from the SE.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

There sure is something strange going on with the GFS and ECM deterministic runs at the moment. It looks like a misguided attempt to override the Nino standing wave pattern with the effects of the MJO decay that they keep going for - but why this would affect the det. runs far more than the ensembles is beyond me.

 

Nearer in time, GFS 00z is like the ECM 00z of yesterday for Sat-Sun with a particularly strong set of lows affecting the UK. Meanwhile today’s ECM 00z is less vigorous but still brings a pretty cool weekend with maximums high teens to low 20s for most. Still mild by night through; mid-teens or so in the brisk wind.

The handling of this weekend has undeniably been a massive modelling farce, but it is an unusually complex situation with an intense plume, a broad Atlantic trough and a  potentially quite vigorous secondary low all coming together at once in the vicinity of the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Firming up of opinion over here for a strong high pressure cell to develop over the NW of Britain by the start of week two in August. Almost similar as to the start of the summer with heat and sunshine transferring back to the North and West. Wind vectors back to between east and north as falling heights over mainland Europe. Interesting thoughts. See if the main models take this up further into the outlook. Possibly UK Met office will start to indicate this development soon.

C

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