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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Probably the hottest easterly I've ever experienced if the GFS 12z verified.

It's lost the plot as of +276 (teleconnections don't remotely support so much westward movement of the high from the UK) but never mind, what goes on before then is more important.

For what it's worth, I've concluded that the UKMO 12z is headed toward a hot easterly flow arriving a day sooner than GFS goes for (i.e. Wednesday).

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Day 6

UKMO/GFS/GEM

UW144-21.GIF?25-18   gfs-0-144.png?12   gem-0-144.png?12

UW144-7.GIF?25-18   gfs-1-144.png?12   gem-1-144.png?12

So the GFS and UKMO are starting to allow that Atlantic low to back away from the UK, the UKMO does differ in developing a continental flow towards the east where high twenties or even 30C is possible Monday and Tuesday towards thesouth east. Still you can begin to see how things could evolve as pressure will be allowed to build northwards from SW Europe which will begin the potential next heatwave.

The GFS is actually starting to pull this spell forward a little bit,

gfs-0-168.png?12   gfs-0-192.png?12

The GEM also reaches a similar outcome with heat building northwards from the middle of next week.

gem-0-168.png?12  gem-0-192.png?12

Incredibly hot into week 2 in the south on the GEM, still hot to very hot on the GFS but builds a high more over the UK.

 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

Meanwhile, the MJO calamity goes on. At least the observed MJO has slowed down a bit so that the model projections are not proving quite as massively wrong as they were until a few days ago .

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Just now, Singularity said:

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

Meanwhile, the MJO calamity goes on. At least the observed MJO has slowed down a bit so that the model projections are not proving quite as massively wrong as they were until a few days ago .

Is this a good thing for wanting heat or not

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

These Gfs 12z charts for next week have the WOW factor about them..heatwave returning for the second half of next week across england and wales with temps back into the 30's celsius under a strong anticyclone.☺

12_171_mslp500.png

12_171_uk2mtmp.png

12_195_mslp500.png

12_195_uk2mtmp.png

12_195_ukthickness850.png

12_219_ukthickness850.png

12_219_uk2mtmp.png

12_219_mslp500.png

12_240_ukthickness850.png

12_240_uk2mtmp.png

12_252_uk2mtmp.png

12_252_mslp500.png

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Just now, shaky said:

Is this a good thing for wanting heat or not

Oh yes I should clarify! P7 is more supportive of a Scandinavian-rooted high than P6 which would locate it across the UK, but so far there's been not much evidence of the models changing things much despite the MJO now being much closer to P7 than it was ever projected to be. Should the MJO keep edging across, though, then we could see today's 12z UKMO verify best for next Tuesday, for example (pending ECM 12z... it's about time it stopped being super-progressive for Sat-Tue!).

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

..... and the problem with the gfs 12z is that it still refuses to anchor the atlantic trough over the azores and brings the euro-high over us. now this might become reality...but i favour the ever accurate noaa 500mb charts that are consistent.

now look at the gfs chart, imagine the trough and the ridge where the noaa's predict theyll be. and  we really will be in line for a roasting! and they are fully in line with tamaras previous predictions. ill believe the gfs or ecm run that fits the noaas closer.

 

814day.03e.gif

wrong.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Some of the Ptbs are in silly season surely! 

+18 uppers reaching Shetland. Oh mama. Goodbye France

D4B455B5-F3BE-4310-BA73-0C0C1731C5F4.png

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, Mike Poole said:

GEFS P10 at T252 is just insane!  

image.thumb.jpg.004de79fa5962a69f16fc3b52dd1ffb7.jpg

Mean solid at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.756155515b7f74d175712118fbfe6173.jpg

eek! yikes! 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

Just flicked through some of the 12z gefs, some of them are bringing the heat back by monday/tuesday and some exceptional heat on a few of them. Honestly quite exceptional

GFSP01EU12_150_1.png

GFSP01EU12_150_2.png

then  record heat most likely

GFSP01EU12_246_2.png

Edited by Snowjokes92
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

gens-21-1-144.png   gens-21-1-192.png   gens-21-1-240.png

The GEFs strong supportive of building a strong area of high pressure close to the UK with a continental feed developing by the end of next week. If this is on the right track it will become very warm everywhere and hot/very hot in the south as the heat over Spain and France slowly creeps northwards day by day. The 16C touching the south coast on day9/10 as a mean.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

it's ironic as I'm looking currently at the GFS for next week my Windows 10 task manager has just thrown up an alert for abnormal high temps on my CPU

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Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

P10 gfs 12z smashes the record day after day after day. Surely 40c barrier will be smashed if that came off constant dry, hot southerly air flow and upper air temps high teens for days. Its hottest run ive ever seen in longivity too

Edited by Snowjokes92
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
1 hour ago, markyo said:

And deadly don't forget. Very much a life threatening scenario.

Less dangerous than sub-zero temperatures- you'd die quicker if you were outside naked in -5C than you would in 35C.

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A very CRUDE way of 'following the record chances within the ensembles is to review the table of 850s

The max lapse rate we seem to achieve is 19c in optimal conditions

So

19c + 850 temp gives you your TMAX

I spy a 41.2C Max

170F5BAD-F02D-4004-8A22-0FED9AD94FFA.thumb.png.11090d771d6e39c63825b6f9ff439e83.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean turns into a Beauty..increasingly anticyclonic and becoming hot / very hot across most of england and wales..perfection really!

21_174_500mb.png

21_174_2mtmpmax.png

21_198_500mb.png

21_198_2mtmpmax.png

21_222_500mb.png

21_222_2mtmpmax.png

21_246_500mb.png

21_246_2mtmpmax.png

21_270_500mb.png

21_270_2mtmpmax.png

21_294_500mb.png

21_336_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Arpege going for 34c tomorrow as the high

2mtemp_027.thumb.jpg.a70d7e531d8f16e256c6ef4b8a2d4072.jpg

And 32c on Friday

2mtemp_051.thumb.jpg.6d4adb5ffad5f0a0e0e5de6df27574e0.jpg

And by Saturday a distinctly fresher feel across the country

2mtemp_078.thumb.jpg.8ab1681a70555b0483c03860d9395dc8.jpg

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Had to cross-post this from Brian over on TWO. Just look at this for the start of August - hot and dry! Incredible ensembles from the 12z this evening - not sure I've ever seen them as hot and dry as this.

DjNx7Pf.png 

Edited by Liima
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
16 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Arpege going for 34c tomorrow as the high

 

Arpege now shows 26C here on Sunday (same temp as today), big change from the previous run, and Saturday is shown to be 24C. Not much of a cool down really, is it? And the rain moving in on Sunday just fizzles out as it reaches England (Ireland and western Scotland look wet though)

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
8 minutes ago, cheese said:

Arpege now shows 26C here on Sunday (same temp as today), big change from the previous run, and Saturday is shown to be 24C. Not much of a cool down really, is it? And the rain moving in on Sunday just fizzles out as it reaches England (Ireland and western Scotland look wet though)

Mid 30's to mid 20's with less humidity will certainly feel a lot fresher shouldn't last overly long though looking at the models it will heat up again next week

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

2 main timescales of interest on the ECM, this Friday, and the end of the run, T48 has 18C uppers just grazing the east coast, really touch and go whether the July record would fall from there, knife edge!

image.thumb.jpg.f667aa2fa204767786772cf1edb16e46.jpg

Heat building again at T240, quite a broad plume of heat and it's moving closer, would have liked to see the next couple of frames.

image.thumb.jpg.33ed660b6cc9114dc6a1737d844df73f.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

ECM is a bit underwhelming compared to the GFS- I imagine the heat would reach us but a slower build than the GFS is showing. I wouldn't be surprised if this turns out to be a cool outlier. I certainly expect it to be on the lower side of the ensembles.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

ECM is a bit underwhelming compared to the GFS- I imagine the heat would reach us but a slower build than the GFS is showing. I wouldn't be surprised if this turns out to be a cool outlier. I certainly expect it to be on the lower side of the ensembles.

Just shows how high the bar has been pushed this summer when that run is described as underwhelming! I do agree though.

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