Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[SizzlingHeat]

Yes its progressively cooler for this weekend compared to recent times but the heat is on for mid week next week onwards. Big support all round. Probably the hottest period of the summer still to come!

 

[Guest]

Have to say I was as surprised as anyone with the aggressive stance of frontal activity, had a hunch things might push through quickly but didn’t expect to see it. Have to say I can only see August going one of two ways. 

1. Jet stream becomes more invigorated, high pressure struggles to build in leading to average month and summer 2018 is remembered a great year 2018. (35% chance) this is clearly not modelled and based on experience and how our climate can bring surprises - again a hunch.

2. The low pressure early next week stalls or slides north east allowing for a stronger 2003 style ridge to build which would probably last at least ten days raising summer 2018 to the pinnacle of British summers, certainly for England (65% chance)

 

[Frosty.]

19 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

the heat is on for mid week next week onwards. Big support all round. Probably the hottest period of the summer still to come!

 

Fully agree, a return to hot has very strong ensemble support from the GEFS / ECM...and the Met office!..long may that support continue and indeed, strengthen even more.

[Mike Poole]

14 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Have to say I was as surprised as anyone with the aggressive stance of frontal activity, had a hunch things might push through quickly but didn’t expect to see it. Have to say I can only see August going one of two ways. 

1. Jet stream becomes more invigorated, high pressure struggles to build in leading to average month and summer 2018 is remembered a great year 2018. (35% chance) this is clearly not modelled and based on experience and how our climate can bring surprises - again a hunch.

2. The low pressure early next week stalls or slides north east allowing for a stronger 2003 style ridge to build which would probably last at least ten days raising summer 2018 to the pinnacle of British summers, certainly for England (65% chance)

 

I'm for 2. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Just worth noting that whilst temperature records will probably not fall in the UK. There is a real chance across Belgium and Holland on Friday with the arpege predicting 38/39c across the low countries.

Belgium record - 38.8c 

Holland - 38.6c

This to add to the very high temperatures across northern Scandinavia recently.

 

[Frosty.]

I think the most important thing going forward is that the jet stream is going to stay weak which will certainly encourage further hot spells through august..to me, there is no sign whatsoever of a major pattern change, this upcoming atlantic incursion will only be a blip and actually following Fridays thunderstorms, the weekend should be fine and warm for most with plenty of sunshine..then next week brings a gradual transition back to hot weather from the south, especially for the south but then more widely later.

[shaky]

Latest icon gets temperaturs widely across the midlands at 34 degrees on thursday!so maybe could see a 35 or 36 even before friday?

[Leo97t]

I would say that 40C is definitely possible this month maybe even likely not that I want to experience it. 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Latest icon gets temperaturs widely across the midlands at 34 degrees on thursday!so maybe could see a 35 or 36 even before friday?

Yes Thursday looking like the most widespread day of heat, anywhere inland from east Devon up through the E+W border eastwards and south of Manchester could reach 30c+. Less convinced about Friday due to cloud cover and potential debris left over from elevated activity Thursday night.

[Guest]

Just now, Leo97t said:

I would say that 40C is definitely possible this month maybe even likely not that I want to experience it. 

No not now for July, we’d need uppers of at least 22c to have a chance, probably even higher. 

[MattStoke]

GFS 18z again keeps the highest uppers east of the UK on Friday. Still at odds with every other model.

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z still doesn't have the uppers for Friday like the GEM 12z, no where near and we are within T72 now

[Djdazzle]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z still doesn't have the uppers for Friday like the GEM 12z, no where near and we are within T72 now

The GFS playing games before it crawls into line tomorrow.

[Leo97t]

25 minutes ago, Alderc said:

No not now for July, we’d need uppers of at least 22c to have a chance, probably even higher. 

Yes meant August sorry my mistake

[Djdazzle]

GFS 18z already making less of the LP than on the 12z. Mind you, should we trust a model that look like being wrong at T72?

[chapmanslade]

38 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

I would say that 40C is definitely possible this month maybe even likely not that I want to experience it. 

Seriously people - 40C needs a huge amount of extra energy over even 35C. There has been no suggestion of anything like that in the UK. You really need everything lined up with a southerly feed of extreme heat over several days to manage it - hence it hasn't happened in recorded history. Plus the source needs to be even hotter and France just isn't that hot where it is only mid 30's anyway.

[SMU]

Past 180 The 18z is going to be sizzling into the high 30s

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

33 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

Seriously people - 40C needs a huge amount of extra energy over even 35C. There has been no suggestion of anything like that in the UK. You really need everything lined up with a southerly feed of extreme heat over several days to manage it - hence it hasn't happened in recorded history. Plus the source needs to be even hotter and France just isn't that hot where it is only mid 30's anyway.

38C didn't happen in recorded history up until 2003, but it happened. Sypnotics fell into place so who says they wont fall into place this time? We're close enough.

[CheesepuffScott]

Hot, hot, hot.

 

[SLEETY]

Another hot reload seems to be growing in the model output.Slight cooling off for the hottest areas over the weekend,so a little respite for those not liking the very hot weather,then perhaps the hottest part of this amazing summer later on.

[Dan the Man]

4 hours ago, 38.5*C said:

38C didn't happen in recorded history up until 2003, but it happened. Sypnotics fell into place so who says they wont fall into place this time? We're close enough.

There are 37-39s showing up in Benelux - why couldn’t those same temperatures feed through to the UK - similar latitudes? Heck remember this extraordinary heatwave is heading up to the arctic circle. 

[Guest]

GFS seems to follow a similar route this morning in showing a warm up through the middle of next of week, although to me looks like a bit of a push back by a day or so, hopefully not (but wouldn’t surprise me) if it’s one of those gfs trends. Before that looks like Thursday will see peaking heating with low 30s widespread and 34/35c still likely in some favoured spots. Personally I just don’t see Friday being as hot looking at gfs, too much shower activity and residual cloud likely to limit heating despite peak 850s. Over the weekend clear much cooler and fresher with some away from Kent, East Anglia likely to record some of their lowest maxima of summer to date 17-21c (only two day below 20c here for instance since May) although rain amounts will vary due to shower activity some consensus that something more organised will cross the U.K. Sunday night.

[Guest]

It’s also worth noting both GEM & ICON are not anywhere near as aggressive in warming things up later next week and the GFS ensembles have a secondary universal dip through early next week leading me to believe there a notable reduction in the likelihood of hot weather returning given it’s effectively 7days away now. A couple of days back the weekend was a dry affair and back up into the high twenties on Monday and 30c by the first. 30c looks unlikely before at least the 4th this morning. 

[SizzlingHeat]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It’s also worth noting both GEM & ICON are not anywhere near as aggressive in warming things up later next week and the GFS ensembles have a secondary universal dip through early next week leading me to believe there a notable reduction in the likelihood of hot weather returning given it’s effectively 7days away now. A couple of days back the weekend was a dry affair and back up into the high twenties on Monday and 30c by the first. 30c looks unlikely before at least the 4th this morning. 

Except the GFS is showing temps into low thirties as soon as a week tomorrow (2nd aug) and mid-high thirties by the Saturday 4th. Even 1st August is in the high twenties (nudging 30) according to this mornings run.

Not sure why 30 would only be reached after the 4th. Well not if the majority of ensemble members are to be believed the heat begins on schedule (around 1st or 2nd August) as it has shown now for days and look to be scorching by the weekend. Doesn't look delayed or any less hot than you are suggesting 

[January Snowstorm]

We seem to be almost afraid to say there's a break in weather type. Certainly for Ireland and Northwest UK it looks like some significant rain over this weekend. The drought for us which was quite an event in itself is coming to an end