Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Ecm agrees with ukmo again and higher 850s are further west for friday!!gota now feel gfs is the odd one out!!

The GFS overdoing Atlantic influence? Surely not

The models we can’t see must also be backing the ECM and UKMO, going by the MO forecasts.

[Djdazzle]

May have been mentioned already (apologies if so) but the GFS 12z op is very progressive in how much it blows up that LP compare to the ensemble mean.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, the high temperatures gradually return next week and beyond across most of england and wales, indeed, the southeast is never cooler than mid 20's celsius during the blip this weekend into early next week before temps again soar towards 30c + ....no sign whatsoever of the pattern changing during the 16 day period of the run or even beyond that point! just slight day to day variations in heat, sunshine and thunderstorm distribution...great summer this init

Edited July 24, 2018 by Frosty.

[shaky]

Ecm even worse than gfs at the weekend!much more low pressure dominated!!

[SizzlingHeat]

Unsettled weekend says ECM 12z

[SizzlingHeat]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Ecm even worse than gfs at the weekend!much more low pressure dominated!!

Looks like GFS's over progressive nature regarding the weekend has quite significant support across the board. Plenty of rain UK wide this weekend 

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Looks like GFS's over progressive nature regarding the weekend has quite significant support across the board. Plenty of rain UK wide this weekend 

Little support from the GFS ensembles and UKMO.

[tight isobar]

I hate to use this term.....however a 'halfwayhouse via gfs/ecm regards weekends confuse..is likely.

And if it is a turn to notable heat you- require the point tip greenland is the thing you want to see..via (850s)..

The ecm will very likely note this as the run completes...

Via iberian/african tap in..

Edited July 24, 2018 by tight isobar

[Guest]

Fun to see the LP trundle south-westwards from 120-144hr on the ECM  

Block to the east going all Gandalf on it. YOU SHALL NOT PASS!

 

Edited July 24, 2018 by Liima

[Luke Best]

3 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Unsettled weekend says ECM 12z

High pressure is becoming so dominant it's now taking over the Icelandic low pressure! 

[Captain Shortwave]

8 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Looks like GFS's over progressive nature regarding the weekend has quite significant support across the board. Plenty of rain UK wide this weekend 

Without having a precipitation chart it is hard to judge but if i hazard a guess the south would probably be dry on Sunday bar an isolated shower. Honestly in a normal summer a cyclonic south to south westerly with 850s generally between 6 and 8c would not be too bad. Some beefy showers further north and west though with a fairly warm and unstable airmass.

Just chucking this in purely to not get anyones hopes up further south of getting any meaningful rain.

And then it is back towards 30c in the south and even parts further north turning very warm again.

Edited July 24, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[Evening thunder]

3 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Looks like GFS's over progressive nature regarding the weekend has quite significant support across the board. Plenty of rain UK wide this weekend 

Yes ECM makes it 4/4 for rain this weekend for me. My July rainfall total may not be too far from average at this rate.
Of course a couple days ago far less unsettled looking charts were said to be wrong.

The plume on Thursday/Friday looks like a much more eastern version of the 1st July 2015, and that was only 24C here when Heathrow got the July record.

[Guest]

Not too sure what to think about this ECM 12z. Don't want to confuse anyone with my extremely technical analogy, but the low just faffs about in the Atlantic like a child playing in a swimming pool.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

as many have said, rubbish EC for weekend, green snot even, could feel cool in the wind, away from the SE, rubbish

[stodge]

Evening all

Have to say it looks like a step or two back from the heat-topia of earlier runs. Thursday and Friday this week look hot for the SE and certainly 33c looks likely but a significant breakdown through the weekend with much cooler air pulling temperatures back to a much more agreeable 25c or so.

The end of next week remains in low-res so forecasting very difficult - the signs for a new thrust of heat north from Africa and Spain across France are clear but from previously looking as though Friday 3rd would be the climax of the heat with the 20c 850 crossing England, it now seems to be Sunday 5th and Monday 6th which could be the hottest days but the 20c 850 doesn't quite make it before the Atlantic pushes cooler air back in. This is from the 12Z GFS OP - the 06Z parallel was underwhelming but the 12Z Control kept the heat through to the end of the week after next especially, oddly enough, in the SW.

More runs are needed but I don't see records in danger just yet.

 

 

 

[Guest]

 

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

as many have said, rubbish EC for weekend, green snot even, could feel cool in the wind, away from the SE, rubbish

No one has said it's rubbish - just more unsettled and a more thorough breakdown from Thursday and Friday's heat. Some welcome rain for many western and some central areas.

Temperatures at or above average throughout though so certainly not cold.

[Team Jo]

Met office apparently going for a 20% chance of the record being broken Friday according to guidance statement.

I’ve not looked at any charts this evening though, but interesting percentage in the mix there, would love to see (as ever) what they’re seeing on MOGREPS

 

[Captain Shortwave]

27 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Yes ECM makes it 4/4 for rain this weekend for me. My July rainfall total may not be too far from average at this rate.
Of course a couple days ago far less unsettled looking charts were said to be wrong.

The plume on Thursday/Friday looks like a much more eastern version of the 1st July 2015, and that was only 24C here when Heathrow got the July record.

Struggling to see where the rain will be coming from on the UKMO though???

Weak ridge building in Saturday (SW England driest)

Sunday has a weak ridge through the UK, a few showers at best.

Also I guess given how different the UKMO is from Sunday onwards it is hard to make a clear conclusion for the following week, I would add that the GEM evolution is very different to the ECM/GFS as well as it disrupts the trough to a point where a low sheers off south east over the UK as opposed to the low positioning itself to the NW of the UK.

ECM from the weekend is hardly heading towards a summer washout, just a bit closer to average though probably still on the warm side. That period between the 3rd and 5th of August again cropping up for a surge of potentially severe heat. I guess as it is starting to getting into the back end of the higher resolution of the models then it will be interesting to see some crazy runs being churned out.

Edited July 24, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[Djdazzle]

7 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

Met office apparently going for a 20% chance of the record being broken Friday according to guidance statement.

I’ve not looked at any charts this evening though, but interesting percentage in the mix there, would love to see (as ever) what they’re seeing on MOGREPS

 

I suspect MOGREPS is supportive of high temps in the east on Friday - if they are saying 20% chance of the record going, there must be something in it!

[Mike Poole]

ECM T216, again massive heat to the south, just waiting, and very settled again across the UK. Something has to give at some point, breakdown or total heatwave, we'll see.

And check out the T240, building nicely towards that 5 August heat fest I've been on about!

Edited July 24, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Luke Best]

9 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

Met office apparently going for a 20% chance of the record being broken Friday according to guidance statement.

I’ve not looked at any charts this evening though, but interesting percentage in the mix there, would love to see (as ever) what they’re seeing on MOGREPS

 

And that's a 20% chance of the all-time UK record being broken!!! 

30% chance of the July record being broken, according to the Met O's Chief Forecaster. 

[MattStoke]

240+ hours on the ECM. A lot of hot air threatening to push northward into our shores.

[SMU]

ECM moving the heat dome from spain 192 > 216 > 240

20c not far away for Sat 4th

just based on ECM 12z 216 /240 we will be 30c ISH day 9 & low to mid 30s Day 10

Im earmarking the 5th & 6th as possible record breaking dates...

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z has a happy ending with heat building from the south but really it's all about this week's heat, thursday could hit 35c 95f across the SE but then a thundery breakdown on friday although still very hot across eastern areas, up to 30-31c again, 86-88f.☺

Edited July 24, 2018 by Frosty.

[tight isobar]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T216, again massive heat to the south, just waiting, and very settled again across the UK. Something has to give at some point!

Discounting-850s for a moment and viewing the overall evolution.

Its screaming pressure slits- and by its nearly conclusion...again the heat trap is on...with a primmed aim and target at our shores.

Ridging is constantly pointing at a one way road...as the atlantic Want of injection.....yet again fails to materialise!!

Its all glory this season 4- constant ridge/hp elevation...

The gods are trying but have'nt the strength to twist the heat syphon to negative!!!

Edited July 24, 2018 by tight isobar