Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[gottolovethisweather]

On 23/07/2018 at 11:08, gottolovethisweather said:

I agree. The tv forecasts for today showing 32c or perhaps 33c as a maximum temperature and with no let up in the reliable, 34c or 35c will surely be reachable, most likely on Wednesday or Thursday. Short-term upgrades in temperatures are often unforeseen in the NWP outputs for whatever reason, the same goes for extreme minimums in winter to my mind. As for next week and beyond, I'll leave that to the others.

1

Apologies for replying to my own post, but like most coldies rarely do I post in here in Summer. But, yes, the above still applies and far too many in here, stick to the models' temperature forecasts and don't seem to appreciate that they are merely guesses, the reality at t+24, t+72 or t+360 hours is always an unknown. Mid-range temps, say D3 to D6 are often out by two or three degrees, hence Monday's maxes were two days before, predicted to be lower yet 33c was breached. Mine and your gut feeling of past heatwave experiences, climate or even basic weather knowledge and the appreciation of the conditions, here and now, can allow you to make a reasonable judgement. With the Beeb on board with a max temp 34c/35c prediction for Thursday, my attention now turns to the end of July and first ten days of August, I'm thinking the dry Europe heat sink conditions will spread northwards and such maximums will be repeated and potentially exceeded. 36c on the cards in the next 15 days? Watch this space!

Edited July 24, 2018 by gottolovethisweather

[tight isobar]

Im inclined to agree... GLTW

August for me the real heat month!!!

Edited July 24, 2018 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

August for me the real heat month!!!

The way the GEFS / ECM mean look so far today..and recent days, there is a lot of support for the predominantly hot weather to continue, and judging by the latest update from exeter, Mogreps, GloSea5, Ec32 etc must be suggesting August could be the hottest month with very hot potential, especially further south..Exciting summer, normally this forum is dead in summer but not this year!☺ 

[Frosty.]

As I said above, there is a lot of support for further hot / very hot weather as we look further ahead into early August according to the GEFS 6z.☺

[SMU]

Met office now officially on board with 

36C For Friday

[phil nw.]

Interesting looking at the 06z GFS charts at T30hrs to see the distribution of heat going right up to N.Cape(Norway) at around 70N suggesting surface readings in the 20's C even right up there.

We can see the temperature contrast either side of the jetstream as it heads up the Norwegian coast line.

Plenty of red colours around the hemisphere with only Greenland standing out as the island of blue.

That Atlantic trough seems an almost stationary feature out west just modifying the heat somewhat for the UK from time to time especially further north and west but this is quite a notable dry period with any Atlantic rain bearing features quickly losing their strength as they move into the UK.

 

Edited July 24, 2018 by phil nw.

[Guest Delete Me]

Those GEFS 6z for the weekend of Aug 4th are cracking!!!

[Mark wheeler]

17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Met office now officially on board with 

36C For Friday

Are they possibly hinting at the outside chance the record could go with this tweet ?. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/metoffice/status/1021726596573609984

 

[Singularity]

18 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Met office now officially on board with 

36C For Friday

They're clearly fancying UKMO (and ARPEGE + AROME) over GFS and ECM on this one.

With that level of heat, the potential thunderstorms across eastern parts by the evening could be seriously intense in a few spots.

It's still unclear whether the associated area of upper-level instability will initially arrive as elevated thunderstorms across CS England; the models are generally weaker with the rainfall rates compared to yesterday so perhaps not - just some showery, mostly light rain. Might give the wildlife a bit of relief - though the 2-5 mm being shown widely across the region could be optimistic based on recent experiences (soil moisture feedback...).

 

It will be interesting to see if the 12z UKMO unfolds as strangely as the 00z one did for days 5-7; sending the upper low right over the UK was very out of kilter with recent modelling consensus + anticipated background signals.

[SMU]

^^ Yes I checked the Aperge & the uppers got to 19c !!!

@Mark wheeler link doesnt work ATM but yes maybe 10/20% the record could go although the window is small

ECM 10 mean much more supportive of the conditions needed for record breaking heat -

S

[Polar Maritime]

3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Remember this time last week many writing this sort of temp off- Could we squeeze a 37c ...

37.8 is 100F ...

There's currently a 20% chance for the record to be broken & a 30% chance for temps to hit 36c according the the senior forcaster. This is all dependant on the timing/positioning of the cold front moving East bringing possible storms, Currently the models show this front over the S/E during Friday afternoon at peak heat time. We shall see, One things for sure the humidity will be v high if things pan out as model'd.

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

There's currently a 20% chance for the record to be broken & a 30% chance for temps to hit 36c according the the senior forcaster. This is all dependant on the timing/positioning of the cold front moving East bringing possible storms, Currently the models show this front over the S/E during Friday afternoon at peak heat time. We shall see, One things for sure the humidity will be v high if things pan out as model'd.

Could be some huge fireworks as well in terms of storms that evening!

[Polar Maritime]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Could be some huge fireworks as well in terms of storms that evening!

Absolutely, One or the other will do fine if not both..

Edited July 24, 2018 by Polar Maritime

[Snowjokes92]

Is it me or does the ukmo 144hr chart look out of kilter to the other models and previous ukmo runs. Just looks too close to comfort maybe im wrong though

[Snowjokes92]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Could be some huge fireworks as well in terms of storms that evening!

Is there a still a chance we could see the high uppers a bit more further west  just a bit touch and go for friday i feel. Hope im wrong.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Snowjokes92 said:

Is it me or does the ukmo 144hr chart look out of kilter to the other models and previous ukmo runs. Just looks too close to comfort maybe im wrong though

Looks less aggressive than GFS 06z to me.  

[Singularity]

2 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

Is it me or does the ukmo 144hr chart look out of kilter to the other models and previous ukmo runs. Just looks too close to comfort maybe im wrong though

That's what I was just referring to with respect to the 00z.

Hopefully the 12z will move back in line with the progression that features at most a trailing front reaching the UK while low pressure vacates to the north or northwest, allowing high pressure to begin building across from the southwest during Tue-Wed.

[Mike Poole]

My interest in the 12s is split between the heat Friday, and the following weekend.  Looking at this Friday first, even though it's only 3 days, there is still uncertainty.  Here ICON, GEM and GFS

GEM the one that brings the records!

UKMO now available:

Edited July 24, 2018 by Mike Poole

[mushymanrob]

42 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Absolutely, One or the other will do fine if not both..

dont think our local record will go though on friday. so to me its a bit of a moot point. in 03 when the record was set, so was our local . so i cant really get excited about what somewhere else is getting if we only get 25c..

[Guest]

GFS looking very aggressive over the weekend with the most active set of fronts seen in ages. 

[SizzlingHeat]

GFS weekend borderline washout for many. Would be a massive surprise if it keeps showing this in a couple of days.

Been watching the low creep further east with every run to the extent its nearly on top of the UK come Sunday/Monday. Could be disruptive in terms of delaying or erasing the hot spell mid week!! 

[Djdazzle]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS looking very aggressive over the weekend with the most active set of fronts seen in ages. 

It’s quite hilarious to see how GFS blows up thst low. Wasn’t it doing the same thing with this week’s low a few days ago?

UKMO at 144 much less aggressive.

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

My interest in the 12s is split between the heat Friday, and the following weekend.  Looking at this Friday first, even though it's only 3 days, there is still uncertainty.  Here ICON, GEM and GFS

 

Surprise surprise the GFS the most progressive in sweeping away the heat. Some things never change 

Plenty of pep in Sunday's weather front on the 12z, too.

[Dominic Carey]

Lovely output so far this evening with the heat looking like continuing.

[SizzlingHeat]

GFS seems to be really struggling to lift the trough northwards to allow the high to build. Jet stream a touch too far south with a little too much oomph. Not overly inspiring although the main rebuild of heat is not due until end of the week it's just disappointing there's a lot more low pressure around early next week that what was shown only a day or two ago....