Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[northwestsnow]

So, its very warm to hot for most of this week , a cooler blip come weekend, and then there seems to be a growing signal for the heat to rebuild as we move through next week.

The EC mean is primed by day 10 to re introduce a plume from Spain.

You really have to tip your hat to Tamara who has been incredibly accurate in recent weeks..

Summer 2018 is surpassing all expectations/hopes.

edit With so many brilliant contributors to this forum its hard to single out people but i forgot to mention stormchaser who has also been absolutely brilliant with his analysis and reasoning.

Thanks to these guys and all the others who make this forum both educational and a thoroughly enjoyable reading.

Edited July 24, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Frosty.]

What an Ecm 00z ensemble mean this is..Beautiful!..excellent signs further ahead for this wonderful summer to continue. ..

Edited July 24, 2018 by Frosty.

[Singularity]

So many questions and no clear answers from the models this morning.

 

- Where will the convective activity track late Thu through Fri? Central parts eastward or just eastern parts?

- Will the secondary low at the weekend zip past to the northwest or take a pit stop to the southwest? There's a very wide range of rainfall patterns being suggested for Sat-Mon.

- If it does move to our SW, will it then lift out north ECM-style, take a swipe at the UK? The UKMO 00z actually manages to produce such an outcome for day 7, much to my surprise!

- As the increase in SLP across the UK in the 8-10 day range kicks in, how resilient will the Scandinavian High prove to be i.e. how much of an E component is there to the flow?

 

Good luck, forecasters .

[Craig84]

31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

So, its very warm to hot for most of this week , a cooler blip come weekend, and then there seems to be a growing signal for the heat to rebuild as we move through next week.

The EC mean is primed by day 10 to re introduce a plume from Spain.

You really have to tip your hat to Tamara who has been incredibly accurate in recent weeks..

Summer 2018 is surpassing all expectations/hopes.

edit With so many brilliant contributors to this forum its hard to single out people but i forgot to mention stormchaser who has also been absolutely brilliant with his analysis and reasoning.

Thanks to these guys and all the others who make this forum both educational and a thoroughly enjoyable reading.

I have to echo this northwestsnow. Tamara, singularity and others have been very impressive in their grasp on the situation this summer. It’s been really enjoyable to follow.

What’s also been great is the number of contributors this summer, it’s rivalled winter for the amount of posts and buzz for me. It’s been great to see so many coldies in here this year chasing the heat too! Great stuff

Edited July 24, 2018 by Craig84

[weirpig]

In regard to rainfall on Friday  the icons take is a band of rain forming through the spine of England  migrating eastwards  and producing quite torrential rainfall as it approaching the East coast    Something to keep an eye on. 

         

[mb018538]

Just to echo the above, Tamaras forecasts have been spot on, even in the face of model chaos trying to force unsettled and cooler stuff in at times....she has held firm and been proved right time and time again. Invaluable to have posters like this on net weather!

[MR EXTREMES]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

So, its very warm to hot for most of this week , a cooler blip come weekend, and then there seems to be a growing signal for the heat to rebuild as we move through next week.

The EC mean is primed by day 10 to re introduce a plume from Spain.

You really have to tip your hat to Tamara who has been incredibly accurate in recent weeks..

Summer 2018 is surpassing all expectations/hopes.

edit With so many brilliant contributors to this forum its hard to single out people but i forgot to mention stormchaser who has also been absolutely brilliant with his analysis and reasoning.

Thanks to these guys and all the others who make this forum both educational and a thoroughly enjoyable reading.

2018 summer was always going to be special after a special spell at the end of winter into spring.

It really was a set up that favours this summery outcome and the extremes are likely to continue as things stand.

Phenomenal and most exciting event since 2009/2010.

Heat looks like building again perhaps exceeding this week.

[tight isobar]

Gfs 6z making a little less drama of the iclandic low of deepening the trough..

Also of note is the more organised scandinavian large HP spread...all in all a quicker route back to notable heat influence...

We'll see how it develops?!!

[DR(S)NO]

Indeed, some very clever people here on Netweather.....we are very fortunate.

Also to echo how great it has been to see so many posters in this amazing Summer we are having.

Still looking as though August could well produce the goods too.... and I’ve a feeling some awsome storms could be on the way.

 

[Singularity]

The appreciation is much appreciated, cheers 

GFS 06z more akin to the ECM 00z in moving the trough axis through the UK Mon-Tue but with the front fizzling out by the time it reaches eastern parts of England. Still enough to freshen things up for at least one day though.

This appears to be a required step if we're to see a decent build of pressure from the southwest over the following couple of days.

 

GFS 06z for next Wednesday is much more the kind of Atlantic-Scandinavian Blocking High standoff that's long been anticipated to take shape at some point next week.

Let's see if the model can be less progressive than it so often is - or will it break the run of consecutive GFS 06z runs producing some of the hottest outcomes (currently 3 in a row)?

Edited July 24, 2018 by Singularity

[Polar Maritime]

Friday continues to be of interest what with conditions prime for storms.

 

 

[Leo97t]

12 minutes ago, Singularity said:

The appreciation is much appreciated, cheers 

GFS 06z more akin to the ECM 00z in moving the trough axis through the UK Mon-Tue but with the front fizzling out by the time it reaches eastern parts of England. Still enough to freshen things up for at least one day though.

This appears to be a required step if we're to see a decent build of pressure from the southwest over the following couple of days.

 

GFS 06z for next Wednesday is much more the kind of Atlantic-Scandinavian Blocking High standoff that's long been anticipated to take shape at some point next week.

Let's see if the model can be less progressive than it so often is - or will it break the run of consecutive GFS 06z runs producing some of the hottest outcomes (currently 3 in a row)?

It's definitely broken the run option. 

[weirpig]

Again  way out in Fi  but akin to the ECM  at 240  high uppers start to make there way towards the UK   possible mid 30s yet again.  The trend at the mo  is for the heat to not go away

   

[Frosty.]

Fantastic Gfs 6z operational with everything about summer I love.. i.e plumes, thunderstorms and lots of dry hot sunny conditions..here's a few charts looking further ahead from this lovely run. ☺

[Singularity]

13 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

It's definitely broken the run option. 

Sure did come close though!

The general theme of some manner of hot continental import continues to materialise. Applying the typical progressive and northward bias that GFS has when it comes to heat low development and movement, all sorts of possibilities can be envisioned, most of them very warm to hot, and a few very hot.

 

One key trend over the past few days has been for the hot air to become move focused across Central and Western Europe during the 8-12 day range, which is related to the increased resilience of the Scandinavian blocking high; the circulation around it moves the hot air in that way.

With that, the odds of dangerous heat affecting the UK have reduced, as while we were before faced with anything between an ENE and a SSE flow having the potential to bring about such conditions, it now looks most likely that an ENE or E flow would 'only' deliver very warm to hot weather instead. A flow between S and ESE remains potentially problematic, though (western limit has moved from SSE to S - again relating to the adjusted focus of the hottest air).

[Leo97t]

Arpege and arome showing 36C for Thursday and Friday. Even met office have tweeted this this morning. Small chance of the July Record going I would say as well

[SMU]

17 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Arpege and arome showing 36C for Thursday and Friday. Even met office have tweeted this this morning. Small chance of the July Record going I would say as well

Yes 36c For Extreme SE Fri

 

Remember this time last week many writing this sort of temp off- Could we squeeze a 37c ...

37.8 is 100F ...

Edited July 24, 2018 by Steve Murr

[SMU]

Also all but 30c Sat @8am...37c just over the water..

S

 

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes 36c For Extreme SE Fri

 

Remember this time last week many writing this sort of temp off- Could we squeeze a 37c ...

37.8 is 100F ...

Its becoming very marginal for Friday, things only really need to be out by an hour or two now and wheres there's storms now in the forecast its quite conceivable there could be some high cloud / clag around. 

Long term seems to be somewhat anticyclonic but rather ill-defined and slack, no real hint of either a full-on Atlantic breakthrough nor a strongly anticyclonic Azores extension. 

Edited July 24, 2018 by Alderc

[weirpig]

Quite a few Perts going for  record breaking daily temperatures next week   all various scenarios of the same theme   Pert 9 possibly the pick of the bunch.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Quite a few Perts going for  record breaking daily temperatures next week   all various scenarios of the same theme   Pert 9 possibly the pick of the bunch.

We need a lot more consensus than we currently have before talking about record breaking temps all sorts of solutions on the cards, also for the majority not much use if they only clip the far south east as some of the above charts a huge SE special. 

[weirpig]

Just now, Alderc said:

We need a lot more consensus than we currently have before talking about record breaking temps all sorts of solutions on the cards, also for the majority not much use if they only clip the far south east as some of the above charts a huge SE special. 

Oh of course  nothing is set in stone that far afield   however  Possibilities are still there.  The heat in parts of Europe though is intense    wouldnt need much of a shift to tap into it.

[weirpig]

   

 

Central England  

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean there's no end in sight to this fabulous summery pattern..well into early August for england and wales it looks very warm / hot for most / all of the time!..incredible!☺

[summer blizzard]

GFS6z out to day 9 is bit more aggressive than prior runs and the Euro (it makes more of the low around day 8 ) before it finally builds pressure properly at day 10. 

The weakness of the Atlantic forecast (nothing below 1000mb this side of Greenland) is incredible.