Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[Guest]

Yes no plume in the first weekend of August on this one. Very settled however with little rain for anyone. 

It'll be interesting to see where it sits in the ensembles later.

Edited July 23, 2018 by Liima

[Leo97t]

Yes sorry I mean an downgrade for summer 2018. Unbelievable charts for any other inferior year

[cheese]

11 minutes ago, Liima said:

Yes no plume in the first weekend of August on this one. Very settled however with little rain for anyone. 

It'll be interesting to see where it sits in the ensembles later.

Looks very June 2018-esque - consistently warm, sunny and dry but no extreme heat. Looks like easterlies too but without the low cloud issues. If that was the theme for August then I would be very happy and summer 2018 would go down as the best ever for me.

Edited July 23, 2018 by cheese

[Leo97t]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

Looks very June 2018-esque - consistently warm, sunny and dry but no extreme heat. Looks like easterlies too but without the low cloud issues. If that was the theme for August then I would be very happy and summer 2018 would go down as the best ever for me.

I take it you live in the north or west then

[Frosty.]

Actually it's a very pleasant Gfs 12z operational, barely any low pressure to speak of and high pressure / strong ridging galore..however, I'm hopeful next week will hot up into the 30's celsius more widely than this week but this run shows predominantly fine and warm weather with plenty of sunshine..could be a lot worse!☺

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes, better GFS 12Z for my weather preference, Frosty, 26 degrees great temp, prefer that by a long way to 35 degrees

[Captain Shortwave]

I guess in the shorter term (This week), for heat lovers we might get a little unlucky with how the end of the week pans out. The cold front looks like pushing through during Friday and as such pushes the hottest air into the north sea before midday so 35C looks less likely unless we manage to edge the pattern back west a little bit (It would not take much).

Thursday looks like the peak, but again the hottest air only arrives late in the day.

*Just to add, the strange cooler patch over the Midlands is due to the model predicting some isolated thunderstorms breaking out, so I would still say low thirties look widespread acorss England and east Wales on Thursday.

As for the weekend, well Saturday does look like a fresher day and for me personally down here 26/27C with lower humidity would be perfect, but to be frank I could see temperatures pushing back towards 30C even by Sunday and next week has the potential to continue hot throughout with the pattern almost locked in with the occasional cooler blip if cooler westerlies do try and push across the UK.

 

Edited July 23, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[mushymanrob]

gfs12z has no support, so its either bonkers or ahead of every other suite..

[cheese]

6 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

I guess in the shorter term (This week), for heat lovers we might get a little unlucky with how the end of the week pans out. The cold front looks like pushing through during Friday and as such pushes the hottest air into the north sea before midday so 35C looks less likely unless we manage to edge the pattern back west a little bit (It would not take much).

Thursday looks like the peak, but again the hottest air only arrives late in the day

As for the weekend, well Saturday does look like a fresher day and for me personally down here 26/27C with lower humidity would be perfect, but to be frank I could see temperatures pushing back towards 30C even by Sunday and next week has the potential to continue hot throughout with the pattern almost locked in with the occasional cooler blip if cooler westerlies do try and push across the UK.

 

Wow, that's a big upgrade for Thursday, 32C here. Wind switches to SE which is our hottest wind direction.

Edited July 23, 2018 by cheese

[Captain Shortwave]

5 minutes ago, cheese said:

Wow, that's a big upgrade for Thursday, 32C here. Wind switches to SE which is our hottest wind direction.

I guess it ties in with the potential faster removal of the heat on Friday, the day before tends to get upgraded in terms of heat as the plume pushes north faster. Thursday looks to be the be best day of the week with only the far west of Ireland seeing thicker cloud from that appraoching cold front.

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z makes a lot more of the low to the NW towards the end of this week and into the start of next week, it really has to roll with the punches from the atlantic system but even so it manages to end more settled and warmer.☺

[Cheshire Freeze]

After being evident run after run, it's good to see that 'hump' of high 850s being brought down a touch on the 12z GEFS (around the 3rd August)

Hoping the 18z can carry on with the downward trending of the mean. Op and control on a similar page also.

Edited July 23, 2018 by CreweCold

[Snowy L]

1 hour ago, Leo97t said:

I take it you live in the north or west then

Sea temperatures are widely 17-18c in the North Sea and should continue to rise in the next week with that Scandi High in place. Cloud should not be as big a problem as it was in June. The Northeasterly we had a couple of weeks back the cloud cleared by 11am compared to 4-5pm in June.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Sea temperatures are widely 17-18c in the North Sea and should continue to rise in the next week with that Scandi High in place. Cloud should not be as big a problem as it was in June. The Northeasterly we had a couple of weeks back the cloud cleared by 11am compared to 4-5pm in June.

yes and here, warmer seas less mist

[MattStoke]

ECM and UKMO both get 16’C+ uppers into south eastern parts on Friday. GFS doesn’t and is more progressive with shunting the hottest air away east. 

[Leo97t]

Wow extrême ensembles have been decimated by the 12z

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Wow extrême ensembles have been decimated by the 12z

Totally expected. Some of them were silly. But still some very hot runs in there.

[Biggin]

10 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Wow extrême ensembles have been decimated by the 12z

Any danger of a chart or two ??

[tight isobar]

10 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Wow extrême ensembles have been decimated by the 12z

Yes via gfs 12z..although ecm -running now has a different take...at least on the raw.

Im still inclined to think the any dramatic climbdown maybe breif...

And the impending-AT trough is playing a little havoc at present.

At 168hrs its not hard to see the squeeze on the trough..with ridging keen to quickly make a shot at inroads back towards us...

all this while southern most are still into the heat zone...

Edited July 23, 2018 by tight isobar

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean becomes very warm / hot across southern uk again next week and further ahead, there is strong support for the azores high / ridge to become the dominant feature...so, a return to the heat again following a bit of a blip at the weekend, even the blip still looks very warm for the SE!☺

Edited July 23, 2018 by Frosty.

[SMU]

Warmest day of the year in the UK today-

Uppers of just 15/16c & we managed to get to 33.3c.

Thats lapse rates of about 18c

Bring on the 20c line - 

35c to be breached this week...

[tight isobar]

Ecm..

Just wants the heat 'quickly' back to our shores!!!

[MattStoke]

Last frame of the ECM. Hmm. Where might all that heat be going?

 

 

 

Edited July 23, 2018 by MattStoke

[weirpig]

Ecm continues the warmth  slight blip then heat returning next week  perhaps favouring the West more so this time with the run ending with uppers of 16 encroaching on the south west  possible mid thirties towards the end of the run 

Edited July 23, 2018 by weirpig

[Frosty.]

Wow T+240 Ecm 12z is a peach!!..actually next week gradually heats up again but what a happy ending!☺