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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

I expect this GFS op run to be at the higher end the ensembles   Out in Fi  but uppers of 20 start to make inroads towards us   Brutal heat building.  This  would certainly cause some folk to experience problems.  

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Well 6z continues its want for heat burst..

And oddly things could get more intresting going forwards with regards trough format and where we sit on the side of the heat syphon.

Increadable stuff!!!

1-things for sure summer is'nt going anywhere and records continue to be at a major threat.

We will see where again we sit withinthe ens....and todays further suites 'overall'....

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Beautiful Gfs 6z operational if you love heat..and it ends, you guessed it..beautifully..plenty of hot dry sunny weather and a risk of thunderstorms at times.☺?️?️

06_252_mslp850.png

06_252_uk2mtmp.png

06_252_ukthickness850.png

06_276_uk2mtmp.png

06_276_mslp850.png

06_276_ukthickness850.png

06_372_mslp500.png

06_372_uk2mtmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

the noaa 500 mb charts are consistent, retaining the mean upper trough just west of iceland, and troughing southwards into the mid atlantic appears to be retrogressing a little and sinking southward towards the azores . the high to our east appears to be strengthening when flicking between the two charts.

this is giving some support imho to the gfs's increasingly hot outlook , although never completely settled as we retain the mean upper southwesterly flow.

a continuation of the merry dance between the plume/average spell pattern we currently have playing out across the country looks likely into early august with a thundery potential at times is looking likely.  with more hot spells then cooler/average as the trough to our west declines in intensity whilst the ridging to our east intensifies - is what imho the noaa's are showing.

 

610day.03c.gif

814day.03c.gif

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

GFS 06z is more akin to UKMO 00z than the GFS 00z was.

The way it then unfolds is as I envisioned UKMO would have done.

ECM 00z aside (let's just roll that model back to the 12z of yesterday!), the broad signal is seriously strong for over a week's range.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

after a very brief dip Blink and your miss it)   you can see the conditions then start to improve as we approach early next week   very consistent clustering  (central england)

 

GEFS Diagram

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

As expected  The Opp run is at the high end  however not amazingly so with many bringing in very high uppers next week.  Something to keep an eye on  however it looks like the warm/hot conditions will continue for many.  (central England)

 

Diagramme GEFS

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
25 minutes ago, Smiler1709 said:

 I love hot weather but I've normally paid thousands to experience a summer spell like this. 

So are you complaining that you have saved thousands? 

Anyway, not a lot of rain for lots of places

GFSOPUK06_384_18.png

Also high pressure seem to be increasing in FI, mean chart at 240hrs

GFSAVGEU06_240_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

As expected  The Opp run is at the high end  however not amazingly so with many bringing in very high uppers next week.  Something to keep an eye on  however it looks like the warm/hot conditions will continue for many.  (central England)

 

Diagramme GEFS

Yes the longer ens again showing a breif/very breif cool down although temps still into mid -high 20's.

Then as b4 a stark rise into early August..

With temps perhaps off the scale!!!!

#crazy

MT8_London_ens (4).png

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Yes the longer ens again showing a breif/very breif cool down although temps still into mid -high 20's.

Then as b4 a stark rise into early August..

With temps perhaps off the scale!!!!

#crazy

MT8_London_ens (4).png

Over 20c hpa showing in some of the ensemble members,temps over 40c ? If it happened? wow how rare would that be ,something like getting the -20 hpa line in winter I would imagine.Extrodinary this year has been for weather 

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
1 hour ago, weirpig said:

As expected  The Opp run is at the high end  however not amazingly so with many bringing in very high uppers next week.  Something to keep an eye on  however it looks like the warm/hot conditions will continue for many.  (central England)

 

Diagramme GEFS

Complete novice talk here as I'm still very early stage learning - I'm reading people talking of 40oC etc etc. This to me shows the highest average (I'm assuming that's what the red line is) on the 27th then after that it doesn't get above that (again using the red line as an average) - so still very warm/hot but no extreme record breaking heat and therefore Friday warmest day for foreseeable future ?

Edited by c00ps
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Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

So are you complaining that you have saved thousands? 

Anyway, not a lot of rain for lots of places

GFSOPUK06_384_18.png

Also high pressure seem to be increasing in FI, mean chart at 240hrs

GFSAVGEU06_240_1.png

A reasonable amount for my location but I suspect the reality will be different. Take the GFS precipitation charts for this afternoon which have showed some rain for a number of runs in a row. The reality is it's dry as a bone.

A quick question on the ECM/ukmo. I have no idea how to judge how wet or dry a run might be given the range of charts on NW/Wetter. Obviously if we have a big low moving in it's obvious but in high/slack pressure scenarios has anyone any tips?

Thanks in advance - just trying to learn.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
20 minutes ago, c00ps said:

Complete novice talk here as I'm still very early stage learning - I'm reading people talking of 40oC etc etc. This to me shows the highest average (I'm assuming that's what the red line is) on the 27th then after that it doesn't get above that (again using the red line as an average) - so still very warm/hot but no extreme record breaking heat and therefore Friday warmest day for foreseeable future ?

Yep the red is the mean.  However that will become skewed  due to some of the outliers.  Also those charts are of  central England   so i expect the more south east you go those figures may be higher.   For these parts i would expect temperatures of around 32c   if the opp was to come to fruition   possibly 35c  the further south east    Of course it all speculation at that range  but 40c will be a once in a lifetime figure so i dont expect that to be breached   not from the current runs at least  

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep the red is the mean.  However that will become skewed  due to some of the outliers.  Also those charts are of  central England   so i expect the more south east you go those figures may be higher.   For these parts i would expect temperatures of around 32c   if the opp was to come to fruition   possibly 35c  the further south east    Of course it all speculation at that range  but 40c will be a once in a lifetime figure so i dont expect that to be breached   not from the current runs at least  

Thank you - really appreciate the reply. That makes sense. Either way it looks like a stunning two weeks of weather coming up, whether you like the heat or not. July monthly temp record to fall?

Edited by c00ps
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Current modelling suggests a resurgence of the azores ridging after a weak encroachment from the Atlantic trough across all areas at the weekend.

We can see from the ECM mean charts days 5 and 10 how this is shown to evolve.

EDE1-120.thumb.gif.1c7e42fbc0a9ea0105f9503c377a0cd6.gifEDE1-240.thumb.gif.671a3582fb817d9888c2aed86e056a54.gif

Certainly for much of England and Wales the heatwave and largely dry conditions doesn't look like ending anytime soon with the start of August looking similar.Some sporadic rain and cooler spells further north and west from occasional weak fronts such as we have now but overall it looks like this remarkable Summer weather will continue to hit the headlines.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Already topped 33’C (in Sussex). A good few degrees higher than the various models show. 35’C surely possible later this week then.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 hour ago, Northern Sky said:

A reasonable amount for my location but I suspect the reality will be different. Take the GFS precipitation charts for this afternoon which have showed some rain for a number of runs in a row. The reality is it's dry as a bone.

A quick question on the ECM/ukmo. I have no idea how to judge how wet or dry a run might be given the range of charts on NW/Wetter. Obviously if we have a big low moving in it's obvious but in high/slack pressure scenarios has anyone any tips?

Thanks in advance - just trying to learn.

 

Yes, the lack of charts publicly available for ECM and UKMO is disappointing but these global models aren't very good at predicting precipitation anyway, they are too coarse.  Charts from the GFS are available, but I would rather wait until some of the shorter range models are available to predict precipitation, such as ARPEGE and HIRLAM for example.  

Re the 40c question above,  that's not going to happen this week, but there is the possibility of really hot air moving in towards the end of next week, the GFS parallel seems to be championing this, so I guess it's a question of wait and see on that.  But seriously 40c in the UK would be extraordinary, it's 4/5 August or never!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

UKMO out, looks like pumping up a southerly, 

image.thumb.jpg.73d11f4446704b07509feb60e13a357e.jpg

Doesn't go far enough this run, for me the real interest is weekend 4/5 August,  but it's not a bad start to the 12s!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There's some lovely heat on the Ukmo 12z, especially for the s / e..the briefest cooler / fresher intrusion at T+120 (saturday) and then the temperatures on the up once again from the south!☺

UW72-7.gif

UW96-7.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW144-7.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton

Well, that GFS 12z run is settled, dry and warm/hot, but no records will be broken on that, but it is only one run.

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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

12z. Now that's what I call a downgrade and probably a cold outlier

Can you share the Chart so the rest of the readers can see? It’s really helpful to attach an image or two with commentary so we can see what you’re seeing :)

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