Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[Team Jo]

Guys, don’t reply to posts you feel are trolling, please report them and the team will sort them.

more replies = more posts to remove to get the discussion on track and quite honestly it is waaaaaay too hot for me to be doing this at 10.30 on a Sunday night with an errant 3 year old that won’t sleep. Don’t feed em! (kids, trolls, gremlins etc)

Edited July 22, 2018 by Team Jo

[SizzlingHeat]

Not sure I've ever seen a MEAN chart at over 300 hours with temps showing high twenties....insane. Goes to show the massive support for a significant heatwave for the beginning of August

[Biggin]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

What complete and utter nonsense!  

The background signals and the long rangers are all pointing to a continuation of fine weather for the British Isles, CFS for August, need to view these as a probabilistic forecast, so no point looking at one run, but add these four to the ones I posted yesterday:

 

Quite. Sorry Jo. Please delete.

Edited July 22, 2018 by Biggin

[Djdazzle]

Pub run special tonight anyone?

Will we actually get cross model agreement for Thu / Fri  of THIS week?

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Wash out conditions for august...hmmmm yeah right, not according to the GEFS 12z mean!!☺

The current evidence supports the opposite of an August wash out..more of this beautiful summer. Next weekend could be fresher but still very warm with mid to upper 20's c across southern uk but then I think the heat will build again..and the next five days or so for the SE..  absolute SCORCHER with temps between 30-34c 86-93f.☺

Edited July 22, 2018 by Frosty.

[londonblizzard]

What's the highest 850hpa temp known to have hit the UK? 

Was only 4 months ago I was asking the same question for the lowest 850 temp. 2018 - a year of extremes

[MattStoke]

18z has the Atlantic trough further west and a better pull northward of warm uppers out to 96 hours.

[Mokidugway]

3 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

What's the highest 850hpa temp known to have hit the UK? 

Was only 4 months ago I was asking the same question for the lowest 850 temp. 2018 - a year of extremes

Not sure but I believe  23 c 850s have reached the uk

[Leo97t]

23C touched the south coast in 2015. Not sure what 2003 was but I don't think 25C uppers have ever been reached in recorded history

[londonblizzard]

3 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

23C touched the south coast in 2015. Not sure what 2003 was but I don't think 25C uppers have ever been reached in recorded history

Was going through 2003 just now - Looks like the highest was 22C skirting past the south coast then

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

8 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

What's the highest 850hpa temp known to have hit the UK? 

Was only 4 months ago I was asking the same question for the lowest 850 temp. 2018 - a year of extremes

23C in Aug 1990 just clipping across Brighton overnight

[londonblizzard]

2 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

23C in Aug 1990 just clipping across Brighton overnight

Can't find that happening in the archive. You got a date?

[summer blizzard]

Turning our attention to the shorter term for a moment, the GFS has a second front crossing the UK on the Sunday..

[Guest]

GFS 18z at 240, primed and ready for another FI heat blast. Are ya ready? 

[summer blizzard]

GFS18z tries to plume by day 10 (though as soon as we switch to lower resolution afterward it blows up a low next to Spain)..

If we ignore the post day 10 blow up which is what suddenly pushed the 20C uppers northward then i can certainly see the south east and East Anglia getting 15C+ uppers. Still not convinced on 20C, certainly not from this run given what it required.

Edited July 22, 2018 by summer blizzard

[Leo97t]

Wtf is the 18z randomly creates lows pretty much everywhere in Fl. Still somehow reaches 38C though on th 3rd again 

[summer blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Wtf is the 18z randomly creates lows pretty much everywhere in Fl. Still somehow reaches 38C though on th 3rd again 

It creates a low off the coast of Portugal once we hit low resolution which moves directly north despite thickness values falling to it's east which essentially takes over from the low with a front over Scotland/Ireland moving slowly south.

I think a better version of Friday is more likely with a more EA/SE orientated event. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Looking at Friday, we are slowly heading towards a consensus.

UKMO/GFS

   

   

GFS a tiny bit further east but very little in it now. Further on and the UKMO again suggests that any push of westerlies will have a very tough time with the heat holding on in the far east even into Saturday before pressure begins to rebuild from the south and south west.

   

The GFS has a similar idea though again pushes things a little further east with the initial surge of heat.

   

I can't really see any prolonged return to cooler weather with a recovery in pressure looking very swift along with the return of very warm air from the south and for some the warmth may potentially never leave at the end of this week.

[Singularity]

Strangely quiet on here this morning, did the forum go offline for a bit?

A curious set of deterministic runs this morning. Firstly, the drier but less hot outcome for Friday has increased in confidence as UKMO has backed down a bit from yesterday's 12z, though it remains hotter than GFS and even more so ECM which is surprisingly progressive this morning.

Secondly, that next Atlantic trough after the Friday one is now looking like a bigger player in terms of what happens going into next week. There's typical variability between models and runs with the intensity and track of this, but I believe the UKMO 00z does a good job and the GFS 00z is almost on a par as although the trough gets closer, there's still the ridge build ahead of it to merge with the Scandinavian High and set up the continental flow that makes the most sense for day 8 onward (given background signals etc). Sure, the run then goes a bit haywire with a strangely vast and yet rounded continental low, but that's convective feedback for you. Some signs that we could actually manage a run of hot but not dangerous weather if the heat low stays weaker and further south - depending, of course, on whether the resilience of the blocking high is being underestimated (those referring yesterday to early March and one being swept aside... well, that blocking high had been around and in total control for over a week by then!).

Now what about the ECM 00z... well, it just doesn't fit. There's far too much westerly flow modelled for next week across E&W, and I've had no choice but to do the virtual equivalent of throwing it out of the window this morning. This is a matter of credibility over preferability, as it brings a lot of pleasant weather to my area of residence and even a bit of useful rain on Tuesday (albeit only a few mm).

[tight isobar]

B4-6z runs..the theme continues.

A minimal 'perhaps blip, otherwise its in the oven-and with the likelyhood of the gas mark being further tweaked.

Some eye waterring candidates flagging.

The london ens are hot/very hot...perhaps getting hotter!!!

Surface conditions staying hot throughout especialy southern most parts.....news making weather beholds!!°

Edited July 23, 2018 by tight isobar

[gottolovethisweather]

19 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

B4-6z runs..the theme continues.

A minimal 'perhaps blip, otherwise its in the oven-and with the likelyhood of the gas mark being further tweaked.

Some eye waterring candidates flagging.

The london ens are hot/very hot...perhaps getting hotter!!!

Surface conditions staying hot throughout especialy southern most parts.....news making weather beholds!!°

I agree. The tv forecasts for today showing 32c or perhaps 33c as a maximum temperature and with no let up in the reliable, 34c or 35c will surely be reachable, most likely on Wednesday or Thursday. Short-term upgrades in temperatures are often unforeseen in the NWP outputs for whatever reason, the same goes for extreme minimums in winter to my mind. As for next week and beyond, I'll leave that to the others.

Edited July 23, 2018 by gottolovethisweather

[MattStoke]

GFS 6z has temperatures topping 30’C still on Saturday. That’s 6 consecutive days of temperatures in the low to mid 30’s there.

[shaky]

What a hot run this gfs 06z is so far!!!oit to 168 hours and high pressure stays in control up to then at least with high twenties widely across england at the weekend!!

[tight isobar]

Clear signs emerging(relflecting the ens)..of the ridge punching back...mixing out the trough...

With the jet gaining a more northwards amp-any blip looking more and more short lived...that maybe so-even further northwards as we gain....

[weirpig]

Start of next week   The gfs continues its hot conditions for most of England   Were as Most of Europe turns into  the Gobi Desert