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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
6 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Cooler and more changeable is on the way folks....Just ready for a wet August!

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Well, it depends, SE looks mid twenties going by that soo....

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1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Except the charts you have posted are for next weekend....which is July.

This is what the same model is predicting for August 1st

Completely the opposite of what you have just posted.

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Yep I think @ANYWEATHER has been on the sauce this evening. What a bizarre (read: plain wrong) interpretation of the output. A brief cooler blip next weekend (if you can call mid-twenties cool) then signs across the models of a resurgence of heat into August from the south.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Well, it depends, SE looks mid twenties going by that soo....

There may well be a fresher blip like the Ecm12z also shows but then a return to hot again, so often in a British summer it's the other way around, the odd hot blip in amongst lots of mediocrity..this summer is very special and theres plenty more to look forward to by the look of things!☺

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
2 minutes ago, Liima said:

Yep I think @ANYWEATHER has been on the sauce this evening. What a bizarre (read: plain wrong) interpretation of the output. A brief cooler blip next weekend (if you can call mid-twenties cool) then signs across the models of a resurgence of heat into August from the south.

Yes, the signs are next weekend will cool off a touch but still low to mid twenties quite widely. Then there is growing support of some very hot weather into August. 

I think the first week of August is going to bring the hottest weather if the summer with temps likely to be mid thirties, possibly high thirties.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Just now, Frosty. said:

There may well be a fresher blip like the Ecm12z also shows but then a return to hot again, so often in a British summer it's the other way around, the odd hot blip in amongst lots of mediocrity..this summer is very special and theres plenty more to look forward to by the look of things!☺

Absolutely. You cannot expect the whole country to be basking but certain regions like the SE are going to hold onto warm/hot summer for a while, even that ECM "wobble"

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Check out the 12z gfs ensembles - mental again. The mean gets up to around 15c Into August, with a large number of very hot runs appearing. It could be that this week could be the starter, and into the following week in August we get the main course. A long way off yet, but another 100f day is definitely not off limits. Stav danaos on the beeb today also mentioned things heating up again into August too. Eyes on those models folks.

Edited by mb018538
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Just now, Frosty. said:

There may well be a fresher blip like the Ecm12z also shows but then a return to hot again, so often in a British summer it's the other way around, the odd hot blip in amongst lots of mediocrity..this summer is very special and theres plenty more to look forward to by the look of things!☺

Yes and those 'background' signals that Tamara eloquently interprets (most of which wooshes over my head ) are conducive to a very warm/hot and humid pattern persisting into August. I'd be interested to see what evidence those folks predicting a cooler and more changeable August actually have - rather than just a preference for said conditions. Slightly fresher charts from late July don't really cut it on that front 

Makes me wonder where John Hammond is coming from with his bullish twitter posts about a wetter August and a pattern change. Part of me thinks it's attention seeking for his new(ish) blog - a pro forecaster like John needs to do better than just state "it'll change at some point folks" without any evidence to back it up #rantover

At least us heat-seekers actually have evidence to back up our weather preferences :)

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
17 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Cooler and more changeable is on the way folks....Just ready for a wet August!

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The start of August isn't looking all that cool or indeed wet

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4 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Yes, the signs are next weekend will cool off a touch but still low to mid twenties quite widely. Then there is growing support of some very hot weather into August. 

I think the first week of August is going to bring the hottest weather if the summer with temps likely to be mid thirties, possibly high thirties.

And very possibly low forties

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27 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Cooler and more changeable is on the way folks....Just ready for a wet August!

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You can’t post that you’ll be belittled until the next unfortunate poster mentions ‘cooler conditions’ 

For what’s is worth I agree with you, Kent, East Anglia night hold on to 23-25c but for most 15-22c Far NW to south coast.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
19 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Cooler and more changeable is on the way folks....Just ready for a wet August!

 

What complete and utter nonsense!  

The background signals and the long rangers are all pointing to a continuation of fine weather for the British Isles, CFS for August, need to view these as a probabilistic forecast, so no point looking at one run, but add these four to the ones I posted yesterday:

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image.thumb.jpg.95d35d30dc7a6b54d2892496a35e5b09.jpg

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
7 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

And very possibly low forties

Think that may be a push! I think the upper limit in the UK is somewhere just a tickle over 40c....in the future with more global warming who knows...but we’ve got to add 1.5c on to that 2003 figure, which is mega at those sorts of temperature levels. It’s going to need 20c+ 850s at the very least, and a slack airflow like 2003 for a few days prior to tick all the boxes. We’ve had the bone dry hot summer precious to get everything ready, just need to get lucky now.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 minute ago, Alderc said:

You can’t post that you’ll be belittled until the next unfortunate poster mentions ‘cooler conditions’ 

For what’s is worth I agree with you, Kent, East Anglia night hold on to 23-25c but for most 15-22c Far NW to south coast.

There may be a few cooler days from the weekend into early next week, but everything after then points to more heat. Nothing at all suggesting a cool and changeable August.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows the very warm / hot week ahead, especially for the s / e / se..the southeast looks like getting the hottest sustained spell so far this summer during the next five days with temps between 30-34c 86-93f☺

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13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

You can’t post that you’ll be belittled until the next unfortunate poster mentions ‘cooler conditions’ 

For what’s is worth I agree with you, Kent, East Anglia night hold on to 23-25c but for most 15-22c Far NW to south coast.

People have every right to question a post like that when there is zero evidence to back it up. Same for Kent + East Anglia holding on to 23-25, the rest returning to average - nothing in the output to suggest a return to average conditions. It's wishful thinking, not remotely model output, and above all supremely frustrating to have to wade through.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

I think the first test will be to see how successful the predicted push of cooler air is next weekend, to be honest for the far east it potentially looks like being a real struggle. I guess the output in the next 48 hours will reveal all as the models all close in on a consistent solution, if the cooler air gets pushed westwards then we could be closing in on something historic, if it pushes further east then maybe something more moderate might take over in the longer range.

Anyway the ECM ens 

EDM1-144.GIF?22-0   EDM1-192.GIF?22-0   EDM1-240.GIF?22-0

That ridge isn't going anywhere and to be honest is starting to edge slowly westwards in week 2. Warm to hot from NW to SE.

Given how this year has panned out so far, I have that feeling that this is only going to go one way from here......

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
17 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

A notable breakdown to cool and wet weather....

C, mon- the ens really do not get any better ...

The mean and members jumping the line...

Some outragious heat in a few.

Once again....things look to be heading to the hottest part of summer thus far.1047584756_MT8_London_ens(2).thumb.png.1a1467de531ccf5d01ca12565335d97b.png

Agreed, all I see is a blip possibly next weekend, if you can even call mid 20's celsius a blip, the SE is going to roast for the next five days..incredible!..further ahead, as you say, potentially the hottest part of the summer..so far!.the SE this coming week and then more of the uk thereafter (week 2)☺

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft

Genuine question. We all said the huge high and beast from the east would be really difficult to budge back in early March ....it ended up being railroaded pretty spectacularly easily. What makes this high any different? Is heat harder to move than cold? 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
9 minutes ago, c00ps said:

Genuine question. We all said the huge high and beast from the east would be really difficult to budge back in early March ....it ended up being railroaded pretty spectacularly easily. What makes this high any different? Is heat harder to move than cold? 

Well the jet was much further south in March as is the amount of oomph in the Atlantic compared to July. I think we'll need quite the push from the Atlantic on a more southerly trajectory to start doing damage.

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
16 minutes ago, c00ps said:

Genuine question. We all said the huge high and beast from the east would be really difficult to budge back in early March ....it ended up being railroaded pretty spectacularly easily. What makes this high any different? Is heat harder to move than cold? 

I remember this well, the Atlantic on that occasion came Right straight through and very quick and from memory quicker than than even the models hinted at  , I was surprised as all the talk was of blocks being more robust and the models not being able to deal with this  , I suppose my question is the same as yours , Does it matter that we are dealing with heat in this situation? 

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
9 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

I remember this well, the Atlantic on that occasion came Right straight through and very quick and from memory quicker than than even the models hinted at  , I was surprised as all the talk was of blocks being more robust and the models not being able to deal with this  , I suppose my question is the same as yours , Does it matter that we are dealing with heat in this situation? 

I think the high retrogressed too far on that occasion.

Anyway back on topic. I can't ever remember plumes being modelled so consistently at 10 days or so. The conditions are so right for it to happen, and I think that this week's heat might just be the taster. A bit like in winter sometimes - you get a taste of cold before the real deal arrives.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Wash out conditions for august...hmmmm yeah right, not according to the GEFS 12z mean!!☺?️

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Edited by Frosty.
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