Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[Frosty.]

23 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Major downgrade 

Hmmm you see a major downgrade i see an upgrade..interesting..to me it looks like eastern, southern and especially southeast england are going to sizzle.

Edited July 21, 2018 by Frosty.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Leo97t said:

Gfs output is odd at the moment. Decreasing heat the closer we get to the event

I don’t see that. The 00z and 6z increased the heat.

[Polar Maritime]

Net-Wx MR Model showing 33c for next Friday in parts of the S/E. Along with some high Cape values.. 

 

Edited July 21, 2018 by Polar Maritime

[Mike Poole]

Perturbation 9 is the big one tonight, here at T276:

They still keep coming. Like zombies, one day they will get us! 

[Weather-history]

How's that for a mean chart at 378 hrs

 

[Djdazzle]

GFS 12z showing a hotter Sat and Sun compared to the op run.

[Cheshire Freeze]

18 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

How's that for a mean chart at 378 hrs

 

That's the 'I don't have a scooby doo' of all I don't have a scooby doo charts

[Frosty.]

Disappointing finish..i.e..much cooler and fresher end to the Ecm 12z compared to the scorching end to the 00z..more runs needed?

Edited July 21, 2018 by Frosty.

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Disappointing finish..i.e..much cooler and fresher end to the Ecm 12z compared to the scorching end to the 00z..more runs needed? .

 

 

Same basic premise though. It’s only FI when it goes off on one. The mean may tell a different story’s

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Disappointing finish..i.e..much cooler and fresher end to the Ecm 12z compared to the scorching end to the 00z..more runs needed?

If only the models controlled the weather, Karl, relief might be at hand? But, given how previous long, hot summers have panned-out, I suspect we'll have to wait for a few more weeks, yet?

[Leo97t]

Wow Gfs ensembles are beautiful. Most number of members I have ever seen above 15C at some point

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Wow Gfs ensembles are beautiful. Most number of members I have ever seen above 15C at some point

Shame about the Ecm 12z op..however, it's probably being too progressive, nothing like the scorching 00z, especially by the end..we shall see, I still think the best of this amazing summer is still ahead of us.☺

Edited July 21, 2018 by Frosty.

[Stuie]

Yes the ECM at the end of the run crumples the 850`s...

 

But FI still exists in the terms of will probably never happen right? It can`t be just a winter thing....

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean also looks more progressive later on with the warmer uppers (850's) shunted to the east but next week still looks very warm / hot across most of england and wales, particularly hot for the s / se with london for example expected to be around the 30/31c range between monday / friday at least..

[Coopsy]

I’d say London will squeeze out a 32oC with most places in the SE getting close to or just touching 30oC at various points throughout the week. After that who knows. The way things have gone more of the same just moderated somewhat. What a summer for those in the hot spots (if you like that kind of thing) 

Edited July 21, 2018 by c00ps

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, c00ps said:

I’d say London will squeeze out a 32oC with most places in the SE getting close to or just touching 30oC at various points throughout the week. After that who knows. The way things have gone more of the same just moderated somewhat. What a summer for those in the hot spots (if you like that kind of thing) 

I think that’s extremely conservative consideirng the uppers. 32C will widely be achieved in the SE.

[Mike Poole]

While that maybe disappointing for the ECM, the GFS 12z parallel ends on another planet . Venus maybe!  Here T360 and T384, first run  I've seen where a high res model has let the red fella roam the land unfettered:

What  A  Plume 

HEAT!

this far out this run has as much chance of verifying as any other, more runs needed, we are so still in the game for a record temperature, though.

Edited July 21, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

While that maybe disappointing for the ECM, the GFS 12z parallel ends on another planet . Venus maybe!  Here T360 and T384, first run  I've seen where a high res model has let the red fella roam the land unfettered:

What  A  Plume 

HEAT!

this far out this run has as much chance of verifying as any other, more runs needed, we are so still in the game for a record temperature, though.

Great charts mike, as you say, we are very much still in the game, you have to expect the odd model wobble along the way.☺

[Frosty.]

Only just seen the GEFS 12z mean, it's sensational from start to finish, hot, hot, hot across southern uk well into early august!..I actually think thunderstorms will eventually become more of a feature but staying hot / sticky further s / e.

Edited July 21, 2018 by Frosty.

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Only just seen the GEFS 12z mean, it's sensational from start to finish, hot, hot, hot across southern uk well into early august!..I actually think thunderstorms will eventually become more of a feature but staying hot / sticky further s / e.

It certainly is. But there is now a noticeable difference between it and the ECM mean beyond 168. I have noticed that the ECM ensembles match the op run mode often than GFS. Not sure how significant it is. Will be looking at the 00z with interest.

[Mike Poole]

Just looking for evidence of that shift west of the overall pattern, here's the ICON 18z compared to 12z at the same time showing just that, 18z first, only goes out to T120, sometimes that can focus the mind! - 

 

Pub run up next! 

 

Edited July 21, 2018 by Mike Poole

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks like the ten day period as the Atlantic coming in..?......Enjoy the next ten days with fireworks for some people the breakdown is coming August looks very wet......

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Looks like the ten day period as the Atlantic coming in..?......Enjoy the next ten days with fireworks for some people the breakdown is coming August looks very wet......

I’m sorry but in what way is August looking wet?

[Rocheydub]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Just looking for evidence of that shift west of the overall pattern, here's the ICON 18z compared to 12z at the same time showing just that, 18z first, only goes out to T120, sometimes that can focus the mind! - 

 

Pub run up next! 

 

It's a 35/40 mile shift at best!

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Looks like the ten day period as the Atlantic coming in..?......Enjoy the next ten days with fireworks for some people the breakdown is coming August looks very wet......

Based on one ECM run in deep FI then yes. No real sign of the Atlantic waking up as such. Low pressure threatening western and some central parts but much to be determined in terms of track and strength of both the low and the blocking high. I feel we won't know the extent of any thunderstorm or heat coverage until early next week at the earliest - still a lot of differences with each run across the models.

Difficult to call beyond 5-6 days let alone the whole of August. I'll put my faith and attention into the longer-term MetO outlook. Once they suggest a return to Atlantic dominance I might take notice. Until then I suggest you enjoy the ride and not let one run lead you astray!

Edited July 21, 2018 by Reverse Zonality