Model output discussion - summer rolls on

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

This chart is just bonkers for late July - when do you ever see a huge blocking high centred that far north in high summer?! No wonder the Arctic circle and Lapland etc is seeing temps into the 90s! Mad summer.

I've seen plenty of supporting evidence from the 12z output alone that next week could become an absolute scorcher, some of those GEFS 12z perturbations are insane!..loving this spell. summer in here is normally as dead as a dodo but this summer is incredible isn't it!☺

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I've seen plenty of supporting evidence from the 12z output alone that next week could become an absolute scorcher, some of those GEFS 12z perturbations are insane!..loving this spell. summer in here is normally as dead as a dodo but this summer is incredible isn't it!☺

 

For the SE, yes, but is there any decent warmth or heat for a anywhere North of Birmingham? No looks like low to mid 20s. hardly a scorcher!

[gottolovethisweather]

The word for today in the model outlook is...... FURNACE, aye, aye Captain Shortwave. The heat is on! I'm expecting upgrades to media forecasts covering a range of Maximum temperatures nearer to 35/36c as I previously mentioned, likely equating to 21-23c overnight minimums in the extreme instances. Not my cup of tea, that sort of setup, but it is what it is and the weather will do, what it does and does do extremes a lot these days. 

Edited July 19, 2018 by gottolovethisweather

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, 38.5*C said:

For the SE, yes, but is there any decent warmth or heat for a anywhere North of Birmingham? No looks like low to mid 20s. hardly a scorcher!

Some people are never satisfied.

To me, even for N of Birmingham, it looks like mid-high 20s are fairly widespread for much of the time.

I don't understand why we all have to be dripping in sweat for some people to feel pleased by the output?

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

For the SE, yes, but is there any decent warmth or heat for a anywhere North of Birmingham? No looks like low to mid 20s. hardly a scorcher!

There's potential for a scorcher across most of england and wales next week..I've posted charts that show it!!

[MattStoke]

Mid twenties is well above average for Northern and Western areas, and that more intense heat further south east may extend further north and west at times.

[Man With Beard]

39 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Doesn't happen for us on this run, but you'd only have to get this pattern back west a bit and UK temperature records would be dust. T216:

Finishes with a UK anticyclone, rude to complain at that!

It could be thought that the heat is over on the T240, but I think this might be the start of "the big one". 

If that high gets up to Scandi, I suspect next time round we'll be perfectly placed for the plume. 

This evolution is bang on with a lot of the ensembles by the way. 

[Captain Shortwave]

14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Some people are never satisfied.

To me, even for N of Birmingham, it looks like mid-high 20s are fairly widespread for much of the time.

I don't understand why we all have to be dripping in sweat for some people to feel pleased by the output?

Monday will certainly feel like that, quite possibly one of the warmest (at the surface) westerlies I have seen with temperatures possibly hitting 90f which will come with high humidity. There is still the question regarding where that cold front will sit during the first half of next week which will divide the hot weather in the south east (though it will subside a little) and the cooler Atlantic air to the north west. Though I suspect by midweek this will be squeezed out by rising pressure from the south west which will re-enforce the ridge to our east. 

The ECM has now throw a plume scenario for the first time, we will have to see whether it will replicate this in the morning. If it does then we may need to prepare for the usual swings and roundabouts of this type of set up. Though I must admit given the far more conductive conditions for heat then I must admit that I might not be keen on playing the "See if the 20C isotherm hits the UK" game as frankly if it did we could be closing on the 100f mark.

Another musing, time for a wee tipple of Islay single malt.

As Man with beard says above, the day 10 chart does show the potential for heights to build back west as we head into August.

Edited July 19, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[Mokidugway]

Tbh temps in north west England look a very pleasant  mid twenties ,nothing amazing but very nice 

[IanR]

6 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Tbh temps in north west England look a very pleasant  mid twenties ,nothing amazing but very nice 

I would be very happy with that , similar to what we have had over the last couple of months,  I hate extreme temps,  either hot or cold 

This summer is going down with 1976, 2006 etc as one of the best ones, but for the love of god lets have some thundery spells thrown in to make it  perfect 

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, IanR said:

I would be very happy with that , similar to what we have had over the last couple of months,  I hate extreme temps,  either hot or cold 

This summer is going down with 1976, 2006 etc as one of the best ones, but for the love of god lets have some thundery spells thrown in to make it  perfect 

Me too pretty  much perfect for any outdoor activities 

[Allseasons-Si]

The ecm op is a cool outlier,well for London anyway

the trough retreats in the atlantic from 216-240

mean charts

there could be upgrades in the next few days

and just to add to Mokidugway's post above,if we don't get 30+c i will be happy with mid 20's of which is pleasent enough ta.

temp 2m table from across the gfs ens suit for London,looks hot! hot! hot!

only goes to 192 as a save but the full 0-384hrs here

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=307&y=146&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0#

 

Edited July 19, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is looking really good for heat next week, especially further s / e / se...media suggesting 33c as hot / humid continental air wafts north.☺

[shaky]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ecm op is a cool outlier,well for London anyway

the trough retreats in the atlantic from 216-240

mean charts

there could be upgrades in the next few days

and just to add to Mokidugway's post above,if we don't get 30+c i will be happy with mid 20's of which is pleasent enough ta.

 

To think.tomorrow mornings ecm could be an upgrade on heat is madness!!its frikkin hot enough already lol!anyway nice models this evening if you like heat!this is the first 18z gfs am actually looking forward to since the february march  severe cold spell!!

[Djdazzle]

ECM is a cool outlier - pure madness! We could be on the cusp of something big here.

[Mike Poole]

I'll just drop this in here from the GFS parallel at T360:

[mushymanrob]

this evenings noaa 500mb charts still show troughing to our west, with the uk under more influence off the scandinavian/european high then the atlantic trough, for the next 2 weeks.  thats a long way from the ecm's building ridge at t240 and would suggest an unsettled but warm/hot spells mixed with slightly cooler ones. it will allow for plumes and thundery breakdowns.

not bad at all,

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Edited July 19, 2018 by mushymanrob

[shaky]

12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

this evenings noaa 500mb charts still show troughing to our west, with the uk under more influence off the scandinavian/european high then the atlantic trough, for the next 2 weeks.  thats a long way from the ecm's building ridge at t240 and would suggest an unsettled but warm/hot spells mixed with slightly cooler ones. it will allow for plumes and thundery breakdowns.

not bad at all,

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Thats a gorgeous chart mate if real heat is what your after!!!it just looks primed for the extreme heat to hit us head on with noaa charts like that!!the low in the atlantic is perfectly shaped as well as the scandi high!!

[Allseasons-Si]

38 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

this evenings noaa 500mb charts still show troughing to our west, with the uk under more influence off the scandinavian/european high then the atlantic trough, for the next 2 weeks.  thats a long way from the ecm's building ridge at t240 and would suggest an unsettled but warm/hot spells mixed with slightly cooler ones. it will allow for plumes and thundery breakdowns.

not bad at all,

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

That Scandi hp anomoly is massive,screams plume scenario

trough v's block

block 1 trough 0

 

[ANYWEATHER]

If ecm is right some fresh air next week....

[SizzlingHeat]

Having looked through the posts on here and the charts in detail this evening. I can't help but feel that the low pressure to the west is a little too close for comfort. Any of the significant heat misses to the east but only by a very fine margin. Don't get me wrong it looks hot in the south east and east in particular however more average/little above for the north and west (pretty typical summer fare) 

There seems to be a pretty clear dividing line on the ECM ensembles and mean with a line say roughly from Devon up towards Lincolnshire eastwards maintaining the 10+ isotherm throughout the next 10 days however further north and west, pressure and 850s are lower so therefore more likely to be relatively average weather with some sunshine and rain (similar I suppose to the meto extended outlook)

I'm not suggesting the heat will not be more widespread, as shown by many of the GFS ensemble members, however I feel that those expecting mid thirties next week are likely to be disappointed. 30c is more than capable of being achieved in the usual spots in the south east but more mid twenties elsewhere (high twenties at times in central and southern areas)

Unless the low to the west is further west which in turn would orientate the jet stream on a more south west to north east axis, I can't help but feel the majority of the more extreme temperatures are going to be across the near continent. Obviously there are discrepancies amongst models at the moment but this is my general analysis of what the charts are currently showing for next week. 

There are signs within the GFS and widely the ECM members that there will be further hot interludes likely as we enter August, particularly again in the south. However, those expecting nationwide heatwave conditions once more are likely to be somewhat disappointed I would imagine next week.

Cloud amounts are forecast to be pretty high in places during next week with some showers and rain for some, particularly in the north and west.

I would hope that there would be some agreement as we go through the weekend for next week. 

I believe Frosty may have dazzled some of you with the very best cluster of ensemble members for next week however what he hasn't shown is the cluster of less inspiring members within the suite and hopefully this post may give some clarity to those in the dark.

SO FAR according to the runs across the models throughout the day, I would suggest the following outcomes in percentages;

Very hot (heatwave conditions) 32-35c 20%

Hot 28-30c- 70%

Average- 10%

The warmest and driest further south and east.

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

I believe Frosty may have dazzled some of you with the very best cluster of ensemble members for next week however what he hasn't shown is the cluster of less inspiring members within the suite and hopefully this post may give some clarity 

I actually dazzled myself with those chartsbut being serious, there is strong potential for another heatwave soon which could be the best yet, at least for the s / e...plus I haven't mislead anyone, I haven't said it's going to be 35c..just that the potential is there for it..even the BBC are showing 33c next week!..I like to think some enjoy what I post..otherwise what's the point in bothering.☺

Edited July 19, 2018 by Frosty.

[MildCarlilse]

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Some people are never satisfied.

To me, even for N of Birmingham, it looks like mid-high 20s are fairly widespread for much of the time.

I don't understand why we all have to be dripping in sweat for some people to feel pleased by the output?

This thread has become the south east of England heatwave thread.I personally do not wish for temperatures above 21c and the model output of recent days continued to show lower pressure and less settled conditions north of the Scottish Borders.Up here, the breakdown happened a few days ago and with not much 'heat' or wall to wall' sunshine being forecast for us up here in the foreseeable, it would be respectful to remember that the UK is not restricted geographically to london and the south east.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Can see a stonker coming on here. Jet stream looks in a more favourable position and better heights into Europe/Scandi. Expecting a blowtorch incoming! 

[SizzlingHeat]

The 18z has illustrated my above post quite well. Even 30c looking difficult to achieve until next Saturday at the earliest