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Autumn is just a continuation of Summer nowadays, i expect a very Summer like Sept/Oct before a near average November which will feel cold due to the exceptionally hot May to Sept period.

I expect a wet winter ahead with the atlantic gearing up, not overly mild but slightly above average with only transient cold spells.

Next Summer will alot cooler than this one but that's to be expected after having the joint hottest Summer on record, still will feel warm and humid.

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I expect September to be a continuation of warm sunny weather to start with, as we pass mid month the temps will start to plummet, and as we reach October with high pressure sat over us it will be one of the coldest Autumns on record.

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Well let's hope we get some interesting weather either way. 

I think we have ran out of superlatives over the last few months to describe much the same weather. 

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Just re-posting Nick F's excellent blog from last year on Autumnal colour and the optimal conditions to produce a good display:

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8471-will-it-be-a-good-year-for-autumn-colour-in-the-uk

So dry, sunny days with clear, cold nights (i.e. HP-dominated with minimal Atlantic influence) are what we are looking for, ideally. 

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There were a one or two in my house last week. Sept always seems to be the month most likely to see them. Even as a kid I always thought sept was the month for daddy long legs. ( Although they are not the real daddy long legs ,but crane fly's.)

Edited by sundog
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1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

This is not Autumn...my house this morning....can i have summer back please??

IMG_0547.JPG

IMG_0548.JPG

Wow is it normal to get snow this early? 

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52 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Wow is it normal to get snow this early? 

If I can on behalf of him not normal but not unheard of. 

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First large skeins of gesse heading south today in very autumnal weather .A cool blustery wind and occasional sharp showers and currently 12c

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Is it too early to be talking abut Winter?

Anyway, the latest seasonal JMA *suggests* a lot of northern blocking.  The ECMWF is fairly similar too...

 

Y201809.D0300.png

Edited by mulzy
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The JMA is not ideal for delivering cold to the UK and Ireland. Looks like a knife edge to me between a 2009-10 or a 2013-14, closer to a 2013-14 type scenario of all the cold being delivered to North America.

Y201809.D0300.png.aa67e4a72545670e546e827f323423db.thumb.png.f39538cb4676810a9116d2f1f033ea47.png

Edited by BruenSryan

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Although i do not disagree with what they show i would remember that seasonal models are generally poor. Rarely do they repeat any success year on year suggesting poor skill.

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GFS showing a very stormy week for early autumn coming up indeed.

3 storms starting with ex Helena but Fridays looks the most destructive up north.

Edited by Snowyowl9

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It's strange though that it can often get rather disturbed around the equinox. 

Edited by sundog

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The geese are flying south in droves already..not seen them migrating this early since Sept 2010

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ANOM2m_mean_equir.png
Seeing a lot of cold pooling around Greenland and Canada, will the jet be much more active then usual over the next few weeks?

The current anomaly pattern really does suggest an active jet may develop, especially given the contrast in temperature between the far North and Central North Atlantic.

With much of Europe warmer then average, deep depressions may be a possibility as the cool Atlantic air bumps into it.

Can't say I like that SST anomaly pattern when it comes to future cold prospects but it may change in a few weeks... I hope... it looks very similar to 2015.....

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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On 17/09/2018 at 19:47, cheeky_monkey said:

The geese are flying south in droves already..not seen them migrating this early since Sept 2010

Good spot. I haven't seen a Swallow or a Swift for nearly a fortnight, so I'm assuming they've gone too?

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7 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Good spot. I haven't seen a Swallow or a Swift for nearly a fortnight, so I'm assuming they've gone too?

i wouldn't know i was talking about Geese in Canada..maybe a reaction to the cold weather we have been having..more than anything else.

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13 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Good spot. I haven't seen a Swallow or a Swift for nearly a fortnight, so I'm assuming they've gone too?

The housemartins roosting in our eaves were out and about still on Sunday night, but not last couple of nights, so think they have flown off as well - possibly sensing the change to very windy autumnal weather.

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14 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Good spot. I haven't seen a Swallow or a Swift for nearly a fortnight, so I'm assuming they've gone too?

Havn`t seen a swift for a couple of decades seem to be vanishing,only swift I`ve seen is Taylor swift.

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Just over two weeks ago, my family saw 200-300 swallows flocking around trees at Temple Newsam, on the east side of Leeds. They were very excited and dive bombing us. Not attacking. They just ignored us and repeatedly swooped around. Perhaps, they were gathering to migrate.

 

I track Northwest Passage sailing blogs and monitor weather and ice around there. It's been very cold there this summer (did not open to normal sailing); widespread snows have started about 3 weeks early; and sea ice levels have increased again in the Canadian Arctic, continuing the rise from the low around 2010/11,  and reaching the highest since 2005 if you add these two together. (I presume the Russian side is very low but no similar links.)

https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHDCTWA/20180917180000_CVCHDCTWA_0010237239.pdf

https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHDCTEA/20180917180000_CVCHDCTEA_0010237376.pdf

Couple this with the (related?) cold temperatures in the North Atlantic and I'd expect wind from the west and northwest to be much colder than we been used to for a decade or two, though wind from southwest to south might possibly remain on the warm side. It's been like this a while and we've seen some fair old swings between the north and south sides of Atlantic weather fronts coming in over the last couple of months. England has mostly been on the warm side but Scotland less so, as we saw when there were frosts across Scotland and the North, and even snow on Ben Nevis last month. If this persists, won't autumn and winter tend to be very cold in Scotland and the North, warmish in the South and snowing a lot somewhere in between? (It's been snowing again on Ben Nevis today - with a wind gust recorded at 183.5km/h!)

I'm not familiar with all the cycles and patterns so don't know how quickly this temperature set-up might change but the cold Canada and north Atlantic/warm USA east coast pattern has been visible in most monthly maps since February such that you can see it in the cumulative 2018 YTD map below .It feeds across the Atlantic to give a cold Scotland/warm England quite often. I've posted August, September to date, and latest week where you can see the effect of the sharper than normal temperature gradient crossing the UK. Since it has been around for about 8 months, I can imagine it lasting a bit longer and giving the northern UK an early and, maybe, long lasting winter to remember! Or can somebody tell me this set up is likely to change soon.?

ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.pngncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_082018.pngncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.pngncep_cfsr_globe_t2m_week_anom.png

 

 

 

 

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