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Hot off the press... Long Range Autumn Forecast Written by @Thundery wintry showers

My favourite type of autumn day, clear skies, some early mist   

Above average temperature?  Year of extended summer/no autumn? Are some on Netweather on drugs? The whole UK was cold in September. So far most of England's October has been warm but Scotland's and th

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Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Location: West Midlands

    Autumn is just a continuation of Summer nowadays, i expect a very Summer like Sept/Oct before a near average November which will feel cold due to the exceptionally hot May to Sept period.

    I expect a wet winter ahead with the atlantic gearing up, not overly mild but slightly above average with only transient cold spells.

    Next Summer will alot cooler than this one but that's to be expected after having the joint hottest Summer on record, still will feel warm and humid.

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    Posted
  • Location: Linford, Essex
  • Location: Linford, Essex

    I expect September to be a continuation of warm sunny weather to start with, as we pass mid month the temps will start to plummet, and as we reach October with high pressure sat over us it will be one of the coldest Autumns on record.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London

    Well let's hope we get some interesting weather either way. 

    I think we have ran out of superlatives over the last few months to describe much the same weather. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    Just re-posting Nick F's excellent blog from last year on Autumnal colour and the optimal conditions to produce a good display:

    https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8471-will-it-be-a-good-year-for-autumn-colour-in-the-uk

    So dry, sunny days with clear, cold nights (i.e. HP-dominated with minimal Atlantic influence) are what we are looking for, ideally. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    There were a one or two in my house last week. Sept always seems to be the month most likely to see them. Even as a kid I always thought sept was the month for daddy long legs. ( Although they are not the real daddy long legs ,but crane fly's.)

    Edited by sundog
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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    This is not Autumn...my house this morning....:snowman-emoji:can i have summer back please??

    IMG_0547.JPG

    IMG_0548.JPG

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    Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and/or snow in Winter and Thunderstorms any time of the year.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
    1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

    This is not Autumn...my house this morning....can i have summer back please??

    IMG_0547.JPG

    IMG_0548.JPG

    Wow is it normal to get snow this early? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    52 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

    Wow is it normal to get snow this early? 

    If I can on behalf of him not normal but not unheard of. 

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    Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

    First large skeins of gesse heading south today in very autumnal weather .A cool blustery wind and occasional sharp showers and currently 12c

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Is it too early to be talking abut Winter?

    Anyway, the latest seasonal JMA *suggests* a lot of northern blocking.  The ECMWF is fairly similar too...

     

    Y201809.D0300.png

    Edited by mulzy
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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland

    The JMA is not ideal for delivering cold to the UK and Ireland. Looks like a knife edge to me between a 2009-10 or a 2013-14, closer to a 2013-14 type scenario of all the cold being delivered to North America.

    Y201809.D0300.png.aa67e4a72545670e546e827f323423db.thumb.png.f39538cb4676810a9116d2f1f033ea47.png

    Edited by BruenSryan
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Although i do not disagree with what they show i would remember that seasonal models are generally poor. Rarely do they repeat any success year on year suggesting poor skill.

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    GFS showing a very stormy week for early autumn coming up indeed.

    3 storms starting with ex Helena but Fridays looks the most destructive up north.

    Edited by Snowyowl9
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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    It's strange though that it can often get rather disturbed around the equinox. 

    Edited by sundog
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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    The geese are flying south in droves already..not seen them migrating this early since Sept 2010

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    ANOM2m_mean_equir.png
    Seeing a lot of cold pooling around Greenland and Canada, will the jet be much more active then usual over the next few weeks?

    The current anomaly pattern really does suggest an active jet may develop, especially given the contrast in temperature between the far North and Central North Atlantic.

    With much of Europe warmer then average, deep depressions may be a possibility as the cool Atlantic air bumps into it.

    Can't say I like that SST anomaly pattern when it comes to future cold prospects but it may change in a few weeks... I hope... it looks very similar to 2015.....

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
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    Posted
  • Location: Chipping Norton, 220mts /720ft asl
  • Location: Chipping Norton, 220mts /720ft asl
    On 17/09/2018 at 19:47, cheeky_monkey said:

    The geese are flying south in droves already..not seen them migrating this early since Sept 2010

    Good spot. I haven't seen a Swallow or a Swift for nearly a fortnight, so I'm assuming they've gone too?

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    7 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

    Good spot. I haven't seen a Swallow or a Swift for nearly a fortnight, so I'm assuming they've gone too?

    i wouldn't know i was talking about Geese in Canada..maybe a reaction to the cold weather we have been having..more than anything else.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    13 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

    Good spot. I haven't seen a Swallow or a Swift for nearly a fortnight, so I'm assuming they've gone too?

    The housemartins roosting in our eaves were out and about still on Sunday night, but not last couple of nights, so think they have flown off as well - possibly sensing the change to very windy autumnal weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
    14 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

    Good spot. I haven't seen a Swallow or a Swift for nearly a fortnight, so I'm assuming they've gone too?

    Havn`t seen a swift for a couple of decades seem to be vanishing,only swift I`ve seen is Taylor swift.

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    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

    Just over two weeks ago, my family saw 200-300 swallows flocking around trees at Temple Newsam, on the east side of Leeds. They were very excited and dive bombing us. Not attacking. They just ignored us and repeatedly swooped around. Perhaps, they were gathering to migrate.

     

    I track Northwest Passage sailing blogs and monitor weather and ice around there. It's been very cold there this summer (did not open to normal sailing); widespread snows have started about 3 weeks early; and sea ice levels have increased again in the Canadian Arctic, continuing the rise from the low around 2010/11,  and reaching the highest since 2005 if you add these two together. (I presume the Russian side is very low but no similar links.)

    https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHDCTWA/20180917180000_CVCHDCTWA_0010237239.pdf

    https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHDCTEA/20180917180000_CVCHDCTEA_0010237376.pdf

    Couple this with the (related?) cold temperatures in the North Atlantic and I'd expect wind from the west and northwest to be much colder than we been used to for a decade or two, though wind from southwest to south might possibly remain on the warm side. It's been like this a while and we've seen some fair old swings between the north and south sides of Atlantic weather fronts coming in over the last couple of months. England has mostly been on the warm side but Scotland less so, as we saw when there were frosts across Scotland and the North, and even snow on Ben Nevis last month. If this persists, won't autumn and winter tend to be very cold in Scotland and the North, warmish in the South and snowing a lot somewhere in between? (It's been snowing again on Ben Nevis today - with a wind gust recorded at 183.5km/h!)

    I'm not familiar with all the cycles and patterns so don't know how quickly this temperature set-up might change but the cold Canada and north Atlantic/warm USA east coast pattern has been visible in most monthly maps since February such that you can see it in the cumulative 2018 YTD map below .It feeds across the Atlantic to give a cold Scotland/warm England quite often. I've posted August, September to date, and latest week where you can see the effect of the sharper than normal temperature gradient crossing the UK. Since it has been around for about 8 months, I can imagine it lasting a bit longer and giving the northern UK an early and, maybe, long lasting winter to remember! Or can somebody tell me this set up is likely to change soon.?

    ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_ytd.pngncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_082018.pngncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.pngncep_cfsr_globe_t2m_week_anom.png

     

     

     

     

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