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Last year all the long range models were showing a very mild winter (remember those orange and reds?) but in the end it was not that bad and March delivered the goods.

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Hot off the press... Long Range Autumn Forecast Written by @Thundery wintry showers

My favourite type of autumn day, clear skies, some early mist   

Above average temperature?  Year of extended summer/no autumn? Are some on Netweather on drugs? The whole UK was cold in September. So far most of England's October has been warm but Scotland's and th

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

Last year all the long range models were showing a very mild winter (remember those orange and reds?) but in the end it was not that bad and March delivered the goods.

Well it was warmer than average overall though 

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5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

I thought Canada was colder during La Nina (i.e. low pressure) albeit in the west i can imagine some very dew points and minima. 

 

 chart with a -AO and pressure high over the arctic is a recipe for numerous arctic outbreaks across the prairies which gives the lowest temperatures in winter

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2 hours ago, Leo97t said:

Well it was warmer than average overall though 

Nope ending being an average winter at least in SE which has been hard to come by in recent years.

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The ECM NH Geopot anomalies for Sep/Oct/Nov:

convert_image-gorax-green-001-6fe5cac1a3

Notable -AO and perhaps even a weak -NAO, but average for the UK? Some PM influence maybe.

As noted above, the Arctic positive height anomaly grows the further into Autumn we go, as does the negative anomaly over the UK:

OND

convert_image-gorax-green-004-6fe5cac1a3

NDJ

convert_image-gorax-green-006-6fe5cac1a3

 

 

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7 minutes ago, cheese said:

A nice warm September please, and a nice warm October too! Then the blizzards can arrive in November, followed by the coldest winter on record.

Which translates  to 5 months of efffin  drizzle and 10 c ..

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33 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Which translates  to 5 months of efffin  drizzle and 10 c ..

Unfortunately so.. but every year people on look forward to it. There’s no accounting for taste.

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Anyone else feeling more confident this year that winter will deliver?  The weather has been strange this year up until now and with us heading into solar minimum the odds must be moving in favour of a cool winter?

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2 hours ago, gbrunner12 said:

Anyone else feeling more confident this year that winter will deliver?  The weather has been strange this year up until now and with us heading into solar minimum the odds must be moving in favour of a cool winter?

Thing that's holding it back if you ask me is the Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

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A warm/ above average sept doesn't seem to be good for whatever reason for winter prospects over the last number of years whenever we have  had one which seems to becoming more the normal. Hope we don't have a warm one this year,we could well have though.

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21 minutes ago, sundog said:

A warm/ above average sept doesn't seem to be good for whatever reason for winter prospects over the last number of years whenever we have  had one which seems to becoming more the normal. Hope we don't have a warm one this year,we could well have though.

Yes there has been a correlation to an extent, 2006, 2011, 2014, 2016 spring to mind, as warm Septembers followed by mild winters. Conversely 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2017 brought cooler Septembers followed by cold winters. 2009 however, wasn't especially cold September and what followed was the coldest winter since 78/79. 

2005 another example of a very mild Sept followed by a winter with some cold conditions at times - nothing special mind.

I think it depends on an extent to how the warm weather has come about, a persistant SW / S flow with high minima perhaps not a good omen.. whereas a blocked set up with high pressure killing off the atlantic - perhaps a better omen..

 

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On 06/08/2018 at 18:04, Don said:

I won't mind a warm and dry October, but a warm/hot and dry September is a no no!

 September 2013: 13.7C --------> winter CET: 6.1C

 September 2014: 15.1C --------> winter CET: 4.5C

 September 2015 :12.6C --------> winter CET: 6.7C

 

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My Husband is a game keeper, so he always hopes for a cold Autumn, as the birds will then stay at the feeders! I love the colours of Autumn, so I'm hoping that we don't have too many gale force winds up here that blow the leaves away!

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I would love to see a September and October like 1959 but this at best is probably 1 in a lifetime event. After the extended settled spell it finished with some Autumn storms too

Edited by Matthew.
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