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Hot off the press... Long Range Autumn Forecast Written by @Thundery wintry showers

My favourite type of autumn day, clear skies, some early mist   

Above average temperature?  Year of extended summer/no autumn? Are some on Netweather on drugs? The whole UK was cold in September. So far most of England's October has been warm but Scotland's and th

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If you're hoping for the warmth to continue into Autumn I bring you good news

UK hot weather could last until October, Met Office warns

The UK's hot weather could last until October, the Met Office has said.

In a briefing for local authorities it said above-average temperatures were more likely than below-average temperatures for the next three-month period.

Fresher, cooler temperatures are expected from the middle of this week, lasting throughout the weekend.

But the Met Office predictions suggest hot, dry conditions could return and continue into the autumn.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-45085034?ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

If you're hoping for the warmth to continue into Autumn I bring you good news

UK hot weather could last until October, Met Office warns

The UK's hot weather could last until October, the Met Office has said.

In a briefing for local authorities it said above-average temperatures were more likely than below-average temperatures for the next three-month period.

Fresher, cooler temperatures are expected from the middle of this week, lasting throughout the weekend.

But the Met Office predictions suggest hot, dry conditions could return and continue into the autumn.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-45085034?ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

Nope!

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

If you're hoping for the warmth to continue into Autumn I bring you good news

UK hot weather could last until October, Met Office warns

The UK's hot weather could last until October, the Met Office has said.

In a briefing for local authorities it said above-average temperatures were more likely than below-average temperatures for the next three-month period.

Fresher, cooler temperatures are expected from the middle of this week, lasting throughout the weekend.

But the Met Office predictions suggest hot, dry conditions could return and continue into the autumn.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-45085034?ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

The Beeb is turning into the Daily Express for this kind of clickbait thing. It's the main headline on the home page (is nothing else happening?), yet it all seems to be based on the following statement:

"above-average temperatures were more likely than below-average for the next three-month period."

This is trivially true for any 3-month period these days because that's what the long term trend is.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

If you're hoping for the warmth to continue into Autumn I bring you good news

UK hot weather could last until October, Met Office warns

The UK's hot weather could last until October, the Met Office has said.

In a briefing for local authorities it said above-average temperatures were more likely than below-average temperatures for the next three-month period.

Fresher, cooler temperatures are expected from the middle of this week, lasting throughout the weekend.

But the Met Office predictions suggest hot, dry conditions could return and continue into the autumn.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-45085034?ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

I won't mind a warm and dry October, but a warm/hot and dry September is a no no!

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2 hours ago, Don said:

I won't mind a warm and dry October, but a warm/hot and dry September is a no no!

I agree entirely. I'd rather we get a transition to much cooler conditions once we get to September. If only for the reason that I've heard that such September's have historically been more conducive to be succeeded by cold Winters than warm ones. You're right though about October. Sunny and dry ones have often led to cold Winters so I wouldn't mind that. The sort of weather where the Sun makes the days pleasant but with cold clear frosty nights. By November I wouldn't mind Winter starting to take hold, which would hopefully last until the start of March ?.

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You'd have to think the extreme type climate could well continue. The form horse is quite likely to be Summer continuing, a very short Autumn and Winter proper in Nov

All pure speculation of course but I think the current evolving situation is miles ahead of any guesswork the beeb or met come up with!

 

As a report on CNN indicates today global warming could well be way ahead of even extreme predictions. Who minds though if the UK gets months of Winter blizzards ?

Edited by January Snowstorm
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I have to say that I'm of a similar view ^ as to Autumn, there is substantial evidence from the models and MO contingency planners forecast for the warm/hot conditions to persist to mid-October say, then what?

This year was the year without a spring, huge switch in conditions mid April.  I wonder if 2018 may also go down as the year without an autumn?  It's early to talk about winter but my thoughts are for a front loaded cold one, milder later - strike while the QBO is still easterly, just!  Could this hit at least the northern part of the UK in November, we'll see.

Edited by Mike Poole
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I think some people are OTT. 

Although it has remained hot the noticeable difference since mid-July has been the move to a more changeable and at times cyclonic pattern. Now although there is no reason to think September will be much different, the vortex reformation and likely more active part of the hurricane season (we won't go August-October without a season) means that something more normal is still likely. 

 

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With regards to Autumn and October one thing I anecdotally notice (will have to check empirically) is that

strong AO values in October can indicate the winter AO pattern.

 

 

 

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Looking ahead to Autumn and winter and the ENSO state i looked for first year Nino events that never got past weak because i don't think we reach moderate as things stand (we won't see 0.5 until at least September if not October for a monthly value and it's rare to keep strengthening through the winter) and also because i am still not 100% convinced that don't just see warm-neutral. 

Those years were..

1953

1976

1979

2004

2006

Now in the Autumn they are mostly mild fests with persistent blocking to our east and low pressure to our north and west (a beauty of a pattern for the eastern US though) however the Jan-March period is a cracker with the blocking to our north east stretching to Greenland and largely showing the same thing for three months. 

weath.thumb.png.b380ac86e09eb7ca49d934604126c7f3.png

It should probably be noted though that if we were looking on CET grounds then 07 was a stinker (beaten only by 2014 in my lifetime), 05 though not wet was largely mild until the second half of Feb, 1980 was episodic with a warm Feb between the cold Jan and March. 1977 had a cold start but went mild in Feb and so our hopes really rest on 1954 which was pretty cold through Q1.

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Now that my holiday's over, I'm personally looking forward to Autumn/Winter. 

Starting to notice the nights drawing in now, and it's been great being able to sleep with the cooler nights.

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39 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

we seem to get warm Octobers these days, just remember one cold one in 2008, so autumn seems to start in november

October 2012 was also just as cold as 2008, sharing the same monthly CET of 9.7c. Just like 2008 a few places saw their first snowfall during that month (we didn't get any that early here in 2012 but we did in 2008). That was nearly 6 years ago now though so maybe we're due another cool one?

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13 minutes ago, TJM14 said:

I think the autumn will be cold for the first half, September and October, and switching to mild in November. With North easterly winds predominant.

Ugh, how awful that would be. Very 2015esque.

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8 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Ugh, how awful that would be. Very 2015esque.

Just a guess but I feel like that's how it'll end up, I'll probably be wrong. But Idk if we'll be due a cold November this year because 2016 and 2017 both had coolish Novembers, Nov 2017 was milder than 2016 but still cool. And I think those Novembers were relatively quiet.

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5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Euro currently going for a -AO during winter.

Dj6xH0LU8AAC0zx.jpg

At complete odds with GLOSEA

When you have model differences like that for the upcoming winter, you still have a ticket to the lottery.

When all models converge on a +NAO/+AO pattern, even several months out, that's usually what transpires.

This being said, the CFS currently looks as hideous as you could get for the middle of winter

glbz700MonInd5.gif

There could well be a -AO but the trend at present from the long rangers I'm seeing is for the jet to be funnelled towards the UK between higher pressure to the N and S/SE. Could be some nasty wind storms and runner lows within that set up.

 

 

Edited by CreweCold
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10 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

That chart would be brutally cold for my location

I thought Canada was colder during La Nina (i.e. low pressure) albeit in the west i can imagine some very dew points and minima. 

7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

At complete odds with GLOSEA

When you have model differences like that for the upcoming winter, you still have a ticket to the lottery.

When all models converge on a +NAO/+AO pattern, even several months out, that's usually what transpires.

This being said, the CFS currently looks as hideous as you could get for the middle of winter

glbz700MonInd5.gif

There could well be a -AO but the trend at present from the long rangers I'm seeing is for the jet to be funnelled towards the UK between higher pressure to the N and S/SE. Could be some nasty wind storms and runner lows within that set up.

 

 

Monitoring of the long rangers and monthlies has been done before a few times and the verdict has mostly been that they have been utterly useless, never pick out more than correct season (so likely the broken clock effect) and that even the monthlies (bar extreme months like March and July 13 where the signal was picked out early) are useless more than about two weeks before.

I neither believe the CFS or Euro, only what my own understanding tells me (sometimes wrong, sometimes correct). 

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