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8 minutes ago, cheese said:

Bad for us, perhaps, but in absolute terms it is really pretty benign - and coming from someone who ought to be used to much hotter summers than anything the UK can produce.

It is not benign for UK standards, it is extreme! I have always preferred the UK summers to the Greek ones as you can get more things done and you don't need to rely on air conditioning.  Besides, I have lived here for 20 years now so my tolerance to heat is not what it was used to.

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Hot off the press... Long Range Autumn Forecast Written by @Thundery wintry showers

My favourite type of autumn day, clear skies, some early mist   

Above average temperature?  Year of extended summer/no autumn? Are some on Netweather on drugs? The whole UK was cold in September. So far most of England's October has been warm but Scotland's and th

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5 hours ago, snowgirl30 said:

Looking forward to it getting dark before 9pm thats just about right to me, definitely looking forward to some cooler weather this hot spell has gone on to long for me sorry ?

I’ll welcome temps of 21-25, with some rainy days thrown in a couple of times a week.

What I don’t want is temps falling below 21 and becoming cloudy. That’s how the summer ended up after mid July last year, and it was depressing. 

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1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

I’ll welcome temps of 21-25, with some rainy days thrown in a couple of times a week.

What I don’t want is temps falling below 21 and becoming cloudy. That’s how the summer ended up after mid July last year, and it was depressing. 

Agree, mid July onwards last year was a vile, chilly, windy cloud fest with loads of annoying drizzle. I reckon this autumn will be a stormy and wet one, after this long dry period. Hopefully, no issues with flooding but with the ground so hard and dry, I think it might be an issue.

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6 hours ago, karyo said:

It is not benign for UK standards, it is extreme! I have always preferred the UK summers to the Greek ones as you can get more things done and you don't need to rely on air conditioning.  Besides, I have lived here for 20 years now so my tolerance to heat is not what it was used to.

My heat tolerance is no non-existent now....and I grew up in Saudi Arabia! But yes, I prefer summers where you can get things done with a plume or three to give us some belting heat. This heatwaves just makes me tired and dehydrated all the time.

I must admit I don't know what bearing this hot summer will have on the coming autumn. Nature likes a balance, so I'm going for a rainy, cold one.

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Id think autumn might be more of the same of what we've been seeing since May with more blocking highs, dryness and a Jet stream always being pushed North. I feel this drought is going to worsen and last well into next year.

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While this heat has been great, and I hope it's still around when I have 2 weeks off at the beginning of August. I do hope that come Autumn we have some epic storms and some very chilly weather towards the back half.

While I'm at work, this heat is a killer!

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Does anyone have stats for September 1976 and 1995, both were very wet and cool I believe, coming on the back of our warmest sunniest and driest summers in living memory.

What was the ENSO state in summer 1995, synoptics since March have been quite similar to 1995, though May 95 saw some northerly shots. Also believe we were at solar min then, and we are not far off it now.. Autumn 95 despite the wet Sept, saw dry conditions in Oct and Nov, a very mild Oct, and a nearer average Nov, we then had a cold snowy dry winter. Indeed March 95 marked the start of our driest 2 year period on record I believe - I hope this isn't the start of a similar period though.. although I'd be very happy with an autumn containing a Oct and Nov 95, not so Sept, and a winter like 95/96.

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Weather wise, I have a feeling that September is going to be relatively quiet whereas October will obviously be cooler and we will get our first storm of the season around the middle of the month. I think November will also be relatively quiet but with a lot of cold crisp days.

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6 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I hope it’s not a repeat of 2006, where the mildness continued into the winter and it remained very mild until December. 

it remained very mild right through until May 2007

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4 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

I feel like we are going to have an exceptionally mild but wet winter and autumn 

I  hope not, mild is fine, but wet is a big no no. Winter of 2006-2007 was awful. February 2008 would be okay - mild, dry and sunny.

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3 minutes ago, cheese said:

I  hope not, mild is fine, but wet is a big no no. Winter of 2006-2007 was awful. February 2008 would be okay - mild, dry and sunny.

A dry autumn/winter on the back of this summer would be very, very bad. I'd gladly take a couple of months of soggy weather to avoid a serious water shortage.

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17 minutes ago, Nick L said:

A dry autumn/winter on the back of this summer would be very, very bad. I'd gladly take a couple of months of soggy weather to avoid a serious water shortage.

I'll bathe in the River Aire if I have to, just keep the rain well away.

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Not convinced on it staying mild per say though i don't think there's much chance of anything lasting a few days this side of October. 

Thinking in greater depth i do still think that there's a lot of heat that is going to be residual for a while and also the Atlantic SST profile so once the vortex gets going and sends the polar cell south i do think that October and November are probably going to see the floods arrive (October possibly a greater threat as some years do see -AO setup which would push the jet stream south).

For August and September the default pattern is clearly warm and bar the first half of July (now being felt through a greater cyclonic pattern even if hot) there's been no tropical forcing since April really try to upset the pattern so i would tend to lean warmer and drier than average with the caveat that below or average or not, the hurricane season is likely to get going and so we say see the warmer and drier pattern push south and east to produce a more normal outcome CET and precipitation wise (though still likely on the drier and warmer side of average). 

Winter i am actually more positive about. The ENSO event looks to peak around the weak to moderate mark, the PDO has actually gotten a bit more negative since Nina went and that combination will tend to produce a -AO, the strength of the solar minimum we have entered (2018 is going to be a top 20 spotless year) also strongly suggests an average to cold winter statistically. My primary worries are that the QBO will be going positive through winter and the SST profile is strongly +NAO

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Probably continuation of the drought, like it happened in 1959 or 1540. Weak el nino, low hurricane activity, low sun activity are also well factors for a cold winter. If same air pressure patterns hold until than, we might have a cold or even legendary winter (and we're due for that). 

I think the drought will continue to last, and might evolve into a multi-year event, with of course sometimes brief periods of relief / precipation, but in general drought. Our region (west of Belgium) had last year also a severe drought in the spring, and we're already in a more continental climate than average since february. No reason to believe this might change anytime soon. Dry years, (relatively) cold winters and warm summer often happen in series, and they will be the standard for the upcoming years.

Not to mention that the autumns became much drier since the effects of climate change started to kick in (stronger Azores High and the ever-persistent EU ridging/high causing often Indian Summers here). The time that the autumns were wet and windy are over... It looks like end-november till begin-january is the new autumn.

I have a feeling this drought might last until 2023 or 2024 and that we might experience Cape Town-esque water shortages in parts of Europe (not necessarily UK). I also believe we might experience a series of very good winters, but they might also be on the drier side and be poor in snowfall in general (aside of local / regional large amount of snowfall, or that one year where we might have a cold winter but with normal precipation) in the series of 4-5 cold winters.

Solar cycle 25 also seems to be a very weak one, so that might change things as well. The colder Atlantic Ocean water surely does seem to have an effect as well.

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With the warm SST's I wonder if given the right set ups we could have more convection/thundery activity around our coasts this Autumn.

Having said that the +3-4C anomalies are likely from surface stratification in light winds/sea state, not sure how much these would reduce from a good gale to mix things up (or even what is now forecast this weekend for southwestern areas).

You can see the cooler areas where tidal mixing/upwelling occurs.

1761794555_UKSSTs24thJuly2018.thumb.gif.42bcf903b2f5e47dca916c5fc7785833.gif394718492_FranceSSTs24thJuly2018.thumb.gif.73f22d6b43c8982bfb64845b2a068326.gif
(The France map seems to be of a higher resolution, and have slightly different values for some reason).

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