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1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Stunning day today, so nice to get some mild, sunny weather into mid-November. It really shortens the winter as far as I'm concerned. I find it hard to remember a better feeling day for warmth in mid November.

Those days are numbered thankfully

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Hot off the press... Long Range Autumn Forecast Written by @Thundery wintry showers

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Above average temperature?  Year of extended summer/no autumn? Are some on Netweather on drugs? The whole UK was cold in September. So far most of England's October has been warm but Scotland's and th

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Today wasn't great here, lots of cloud and a bit of a stiff breeze. Tomorrow forecast to be wet. However, Thursday and Friday could feel quite balmy especially if we get any sunshine. Mind the sun is so weak now, it doesn't have any real heat to it, but it does brighten your mood significantly, in what is the start of the darkest 2 month period of the year (mid Nov-mid Jan) when sunshine levels are at there annual low.

I'm hopeful next week brings some bright late autumnal weather - crisp days and cold frosty nights. Recent Novembers have featured such conditions quite a bit in the latter part of the month, notably so, in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2017. The third weekend of November (this one coming) has statistically been colder than average in the last 6 years with sunshine, frost and on occasion snow. This one will bring dry sunny weather again, but not the cold. Even the weekend of 20 Nov in 2015 was cold with some snow on hills and dry frosty weather, in what was a significantly wet period - indeed it brought nearly the coldest weather of the upcoming season - only a 2 day blip mid Jan and the latter end of Feb were colder.

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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Certainly a forgettable November. 

 

It's been exceptionally dry, warm and sunny here so far. Like every month since April mind you!

Things might look different by month end in November's case however.

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Yes. No frost is forecast for here, lowest maximum is circa 5°C on Tuesday and temps increasing from Wednesday. A lot of cloud around too. I'd rather have what we've got now, 12°C and sunny!

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  • Currently, troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies with below normal temperatures dominate Southern Europe with ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies and above normal temperatures across Northern Europe.  However over the next two weeks the pattern is predicted to flip with ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies and relatively mild temperatures across Southern and Central Europe with troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies and below normal temperatures across Northern Europe. The United Kingdom (UK) will be on the border of the temperature divide throughout.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

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7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Not appropriate to compare an easterly in mid November to one late February, the continent hasn't had any real time to cool by mid November, compared to late February. Easterlies can though deliver in mid-late Nov such as 1993, but these are rare set ups and you need a long drawn easterly with a northern component - we haven't got that now.

 

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This autumn has some similarities with 2009, albeit we have thankfully been spared the deluges of November 2009 - but the synoptics this month have been quite the same, with low pressure to our west/SW and high pressure to our east and north east. October brought lots of high pressure in 2009 same as this year. September also quite the same. Signals we may see a similar start to December as in 2009, mild and wet but with anticyclonic conditions moving in for mid-month, what followed was a very cold snowy period with high pressure ridging in from the east migrating to the NW and low pressure pulled down from the north.

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On the subject of 2009 somewhat one thing i have been impressed with (though i have allowed model bias to screw me) is how reliable the tropics have been (allowing for a ~20 day lag) in terms of guiding our dominant weather pattern. 

So with that in mind i am going to state that we should be looking for a pressure build close to the UK between the 5th-15th December and then look for our next chance of blocking to our north and east from mid-month. 

Now which December does that remind you of i wonder (and based on the Euro/GFS retaining a -AO in the medium term, that blocking may arrive quicker)? 

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On 21/11/2018 at 22:13, damianslaw said:

Not appropriate to compare an easterly in mid November to one late February, the continent hasn't had any real time to cool by mid November, compared to late February. Easterlies can though deliver in mid-late Nov such as 1993, but these are rare set ups and you need a long drawn easterly with a northern component - we haven't got that now.

 

exactly said it many times, don't want easterlies until late Jan, when Europe cools down

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