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Autumn 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
6 minutes ago, gbrunner12 said:

I still believe September is a summer month.  Autumn only really begins shortly after the equinox when days are shorter than nights (despite this October can be very warm and pleasant, take 2011 as an example)

October can be an interesting month, very much a time of change when leaf colour is at it's peak, really love that and the crunchy feel of them under foot. As you say the month itself can be on the warmish side more especially in the south. But also it can be bitterly cold like 1992 & 1993 and I've had early snow cover in that month too, there's been very wet October's like 2000 as well. With October you never know what you could get.

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8 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

October can be an interesting month, very much a time of change when leaf colour is at it's peak, really love that and the crunchy feel of them under foot. As you say the month itself can be on the warmish side more especially in the south. But also it can be bitterly cold like 1992 & 1993 and I've had early snow cover in that month too, there's been very wet October's like 2000 as well. With October you never know what you could get.

That's the problem  with Autumn  here  they're mostly  slush 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Generally snow is not a common visitor to the UK in autumn, but can occur under northerly incursions from mid October onwards, and less likely under easterly/north easterly outbreaks come November, exceptionally sometimes in cyclonic conditions, when cold air from the north undercuts warm sectors.

Recent autumns have been very varied affairs though, some very mild such as 2011 and 2014, 2015, and September has often been an extension of summer. We have though had some notable cold spells, most especially Nov 2010, and late Oct 2008. We've also had some exceptionally wet weather, most especially November 2009 and 2015, and 2013 as a whole. Some autumns have been very benign such as 2010 and 2016 the latter brought barely any gales. A real mix.

As for feel of things, there is a gradual slow descent into true autumnal feel through September. There is a marked sudden abrupt change when the clocks go back, and by Halloween in terms of darkness we are suddenly plunged into a winter state, despite often very pleasant temps still. If your not a fan of the run in to christmas and the expectation it brings, I can see why people feel preety miserable and in winter mode in November, with the promise of three/four long dark cold months ahead. Personally I enjoy the run into christmas - what I find most miserable is the start of the January, when the mornings are at there darkest - its then the promise of the coldest and snowiest period of the year that keeps me going on those long cold nights.

 

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
4 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

That’s why you need to enjoy the reminder of the summer. The dull mornings don’t really kick in until mid to late September. That’s when it starts to become depressing and the real darkness arrives in late October. 

I'll enjoy the rest of summer but it's a shame if August is wasted with loads of cloud, as looks to be the case - certainly the forecast here is a cloudy one. I don't care much about the temperature, I just wish it was sunny.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
56 minutes ago, cheese said:

I'll enjoy the rest of summer but it's a shame if August is wasted with loads of cloud, as looks to be the case - certainly the forecast here is a cloudy one. I don't care much about the temperature, I just wish it was sunny.

On average August is duller than May, June and July, we are now six weeks past the solstice. In some years April can be a sunnier month. Westerlies and southwesterlies in August are renowned for there cloudiness here on the west side of the Pennines, its why I rate August far behind May, June and July. An atlantic airstream usually means humid dank grey cloudy conditions here, whereas during April - July period generally means brighter showery airstreams, with warm sectors less pronounced, and greater chance of more significant ridge development behind frontal features with more erratic less energised jetstream profiles. things can take a marked downhill turn in August in the NW at least when they want too.

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
58 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

On average August is duller than May, June and July, we are now six weeks past the solstice. In some years April can be a sunnier month. Westerlies and southwesterlies in August are renowned for there cloudiness here on the west side of the Pennines, its why I rate August far behind May, June and July. An atlantic airstream usually means humid dank grey cloudy conditions here, whereas during April - July period generally means brighter showery airstreams, with warm sectors less pronounced, and greater chance of more significant ridge development behind frontal features with more erratic less energised jetstream profiles. things can take a marked downhill turn in August in the NW at least when they want too.

Well I don't live in the NW, so what happens there has no bearing on what happens here. For example, at Church Fenton, about 9 miles east of here, June averages 189 hours of sun, while August averages 183 - but of course, June has much longer days than August, so in percentage terms that's around 37% for June and 40% for August. 

In fact, and as I've mentioned before, September is the third sunniest month of the year at Church Fenton in percentage terms, behind July and August. June is more like April or October, which is very bad considering how long the days are in June. It really does not live up to its potential most of the time in my experience.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

I decided to work out the percentage sunshine hours for Ambleside for May-Sep, with Church Fenton as a comparison (you can do this for any station by finding the day length on the 15th of each month, x by the number of days and then that result is - roughly - the maximum possible sunshine hours - you can work out the rest pretty easily). Makes for pretty interesting viewing.

Church Fenton

May: 45%

June: 37%

July: 41%

August: 41%

September: 40%

Ambleside

May: 33%

June: 30%

July: 29%

August: 30%

September: 27%

So in reality, July is slightly worse than August in Ambleside, and June is the same, though it confirms beyond all doubt just how awful the weather in the Lake District really is even by lousy British standards. Ambleside gets less than 100 hours of sun on average in September! 

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

August is when I get my first Autumn/Winter 'pang' - usually due to the subtle change in light level/angle of the sun. Wonder what date it will be this year.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
4 hours ago, Azazel said:

August is when I get my first Autumn/Winter 'pang' - usually due to the subtle change in light level/angle of the sun. Wonder what date it will be this year.

Usually happens for me in August or September (your brain mentally decides it now feels like Autumn). 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
21 hours ago, cheese said:

Well I don't live in the NW, so what happens there has no bearing on what happens here. For example, at Church Fenton, about 9 miles east of here, June averages 189 hours of sun, while August averages 183 - but of course, June has much longer days than August, so in percentage terms that's around 37% for June and 40% for August. 

In fact, and as I've mentioned before, September is the third sunniest month of the year at Church Fenton in percentage terms, behind July and August. June is more like April or October, which is very bad considering how long the days are in June. It really does not live up to its potential most of the time in my experience.

Yes there is a marked difference between west and east side of Pennines. In the April - June period northerlies and easterlies are more likely than in July-August and for the east side of the Pennines this often means more in the way of cloud, whereas the west remains more brighter and sheltered, the opposite then occurs in July-Sept when westerly and south westerly airstreams are more likely to prevail, for the west this means cloud, for the east brighter.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
21 hours ago, cheese said:

I decided to work out the percentage sunshine hours for Ambleside for May-Sep, with Church Fenton as a comparison (you can do this for any station by finding the day length on the 15th of each month, x by the number of days and then that result is - roughly - the maximum possible sunshine hours - you can work out the rest pretty easily). Makes for pretty interesting viewing.

Church Fenton

May: 45%

June: 37%

July: 41%

August: 41%

September: 40%

Ambleside

May: 33%

June: 30%

July: 29%

August: 30%

September: 27%

So in reality, July is slightly worse than August in Ambleside, and June is the same, though it confirms beyond all doubt just how awful the weather in the Lake District really is even by lousy British standards. Ambleside gets less than 100 hours of sun on average in September! 

Ambleside is also the wettest town in England, Windermere the second.. spare a thought for us..

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

But, by September the best part of the year is behind us. That’s my argument.

Yes, it is, but September is still more summer than autumn in my opinion - of course the days are much shorter but it's as warm as June more or less. September's record warm CET day is higher than June's!

In general, I would say May-Sep is the summer part of the year.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
12 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yes, it is, but September is still more summer than autumn in my opinion - of course the days are much shorter but it's as warm as June more or less. September's record warm CET day is higher than June's!

In general, I would say May-Sep is the summer part of the year.

For once I will agree with you.

One clear advantage of September is that the sun is less strong so you can sunbathe with less risk of sun damage.Much kinder to skin unlike June.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

September is often the most benign month of the year, yes early autumnal gales can occur, but they rarely come with much vigour and with SST values at their highest, rarely is unsettled weather accompanied by notably cool weather. We can see early frosts, but the sun still has much strength in it, and these are quickly diminished. A northerly blast mind by the end of the month can have an edge to it.

It can be a notably wet month, but rarely has that perpetual dank feel that sets in during October.

Early September in recent years has been especially kind, lots of dry sunny and warm weather.

However, in my view it no way can compete with May and June, for overall feel good feeling. The main reason is the rapid loss of light, evenings draw in by 8, and closer to 7/half 7 on wet grey ones, more so later on in the month. It just doesn't have that 'summery' feeling in this respect.

It can be a great time for photography, the September sunlight has a certain wistfulness to it.

Overall September is an excellent month for getting out and about, optimal temps, humidity disappears, its no wonder quite a few outdoor challenges take place in September. There is a certain sad feeling on that last day sat in the warm sunshine.. people make the most of September, before the winter state takes control from October to March.

 

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

I quite like September as it tends to be different every year.

2017 - cool and very wet but some great convective weather

2016 - changeable but very warm with sunshine as well as thunderstorms

2015 - changeable, stormy middle and lovely last week

2014 - unusually dry and very settled

2013 - hot start, then very changeable, wet mid month

2012 - lovely first third cancelled out by the wettest period of the year in the final third

2011 - mostly unsettled and wet but a notable heatwave to finish 

2010 - changeable after a fine start, the last time there was a northerly that felt more like late October.

We could do with an overall settled one this year. The last one was 2014 and that was largely thanks to tropical storm Cristobal lifting the unsettled pattern that Bertha left behind in August.

That said, a standard September would also be fine by me ie often fine in the first half but unsettled in the second half. Of course, at the moment, I'm more bothered about the new autumn month... August!

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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
On 01/08/2018 at 12:52, summer blizzard said:

Usually happens for me in August or September (your brain mentally decides it now feels like Autumn). 

Normally I take my holiday abroad to Zakynthos in September/October as a last hurrah to Summer, last year I left Greece in 28c heat to come home to 14c and rain. Didn’t help that the clock went back a week later. 

Meanwhile this year I’ve had my holiday so it’ll be nice to catch that full slow drift into Autumn 

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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
1 minute ago, MP-R said:

I quite like September as it tends to be different every year.

2017 - cool and very wet but some great convective weather

2016 - changeable but very warm with sunshine as well as thunderstorms

2015 - changeable, stormy middle and lovely last week

2014 - unusually dry and very settled

2013 - hot start, then very changeable, wet mid month

2012 - lovely first third cancelled out by the wettest period of the year in the final third

2011 - mostly unsettled and wet but a notable heatwave to finish 

2010 - changeable after a fine start, the last time there was a northerly that felt more like late October.

We could do with an overall settled one this year. The last one was 2014 and that was largely thanks to tropical storm Cristobal lifting the unsettled pattern that Bertha left behind in August.

That said, a standard September would also be fine by me ie often fine in the first half but unsettled in the second half. Of course, at the moment, I'm more bothered about the new autumn month... August!

That heatwave in 2011 was amazing to be fair, smashed a few records didn’t it in early October 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
20 hours ago, cheese said:

Yes, it is, but September is still more summer than autumn in my opinion - of course the days are much shorter but it's as warm as June more or less. September's record warm CET day is higher than June's!

In general, I would say May-Sep is the summer part of the year.

I agree with you, but the only downside of mid August period onwards, is the slow decline towards the darker evenings. It becomes more noticeable once we get to August 20th.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
34 minutes ago, philglossop said:

That heatwave in 2011 was amazing to be fair, smashed a few records didn’t it in early October 

The trouble is, October warm or hot spells don’t happen every year. Even when it’s warm, the darker evenings makes it feel less summery and more autumnal. Just my personal opinion. 

I remember Octobers of 1994 and 95 being warm or very warm, and while it was enjoyable, the darker evenings were a constant reminder that summer was well and truly behind us. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
36 minutes ago, philglossop said:

That heatwave in 2011 was amazing to be fair, smashed a few records didn’t it in early October 

It really was! Something quite surreal about sitting outside at 8pm in the warmth, but it being essentially dark!

It was my second year of uni - I had just moved back there after the long summer holidays and hadn't taken any summer clothes with me, so had to buy a pair of shorts especially, left the tag in then took them back a week later for a refund lol.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

September is often the most benign month of the year, yes early autumnal gales can occur, but they rarely come with much vigour and with SST values at their highest, rarely is unsettled weather accompanied by notably cool weather. We can see early frosts, but the sun still has much strength in it, and these are quickly diminished. A northerly blast mind by the end of the month can have an edge to it.

It can be a notably wet month, but rarely has that perpetual dank feel that sets in during October.

Early September in recent years has been especially kind, lots of dry sunny and warm weather.

However, in my view it no way can compete with May and June, for overall feel good feeling. The main reason is the rapid loss of light, evenings draw in by 8, and closer to 7/half 7 on wet grey ones, more so later on in the month. It just doesn't have that 'summery' feeling in this respect.

It can be a great time for photography, the September sunlight has a certain wistfulness to it.

Overall September is an excellent month for getting out and about, optimal temps, humidity disappears, its no wonder quite a few outdoor challenges take place in September. There is a certain sad feeling on that last day sat in the warm sunshine.. people make the most of September, before the winter state takes control from October to March.

 

I think this will happen once we hit late September. Have a feeling the coming autumn and winter will be very cold. People will be complaining about the extreme cold.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
40 minutes ago, philglossop said:

That heatwave in 2011 was amazing to be fair, smashed a few records didn’t it in early October 

 

44 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I quite like September as it tends to be different every year.

2017 - cool and very wet but some great convective weather

2016 - changeable but very warm with sunshine as well as thunderstorms

2015 - changeable, stormy middle and lovely last week

2014 - unusually dry and very settled

2013 - hot start, then very changeable, wet mid month

2012 - lovely first third cancelled out by the wettest period of the year in the final third

2011 - mostly unsettled and wet but a notable heatwave to finish 

2010 - changeable after a fine start, the last time there was a northerly that felt more like late October.

We could do with an overall settled one this year. The last one was 2014 and that was largely thanks to tropical storm Cristobal lifting the unsettled pattern that Bertha left behind in August.

That said, a standard September would also be fine by me ie often fine in the first half but unsettled in the second half. Of course, at the moment, I'm more bothered about the new autumn month... August!

Yeah, August has been a poor month overall since 2006. 2013 was the last decent one I think down in London, while 2016 had some warm periods. 2017 was awful. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
On 30/07/2018 at 09:01, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Only 5wks to go.....

Knowing my luck, it'll be one of those dreadful 'Indian summer' style Autumns

You might well be right
 

Quote

 

High pressure September

Not much change for October

Issued: Friday 27th July 2018
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

*September
The month is expected to be starting warm and dry.
Above average temperatures for many.
Rain could affect northern areas at times.
Southern parts remaining under a ridge of high pressure so dry overall.
watch for rain in west.
Remaining warm.

*October*


A warm month.
High pressure to the east overall.
Dry and warm, perhaps very warm in east.
Rain to the west, especially Ireland and western Scotland.
Only brief incursions of rain elsewhere.

 

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/seasonal-outlook.htm

 
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