Autumn 2018

[Turnedoutniceagain]

16 hours ago, MIKE LEVITT said:

I wait till as long as possible till I turn central heating on.to expensive.the privatised energy crooks have seen to that.

1500lts of oil coming today. A double logs delivery yesterday and 200kgs of coal coming on Friday. Bring it on !!

[cheeky_monkey]

yet more cold and snow on the way...and September not even over yet.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/british-columbia-prairies-alberta-saskatchewan-manitoba-extended-september-chill-coldest-air-of-the-season-fall-storms-snow-rockies-foothills/112918/

[feb1991blizzard]

5 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

yet more cold and snow on the way...and September not even over yet.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/british-columbia-prairies-alberta-saskatchewan-manitoba-extended-september-chill-coldest-air-of-the-season-fall-storms-snow-rockies-foothills/112918/

You've had a stonker from your posts, this September for you from what you've said would be probably be my best January since 2010 - how many inches in total of lying snow have you had?

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

yet more cold and snow on the way...and September not even over yet.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/british-columbia-prairies-alberta-saskatchewan-manitoba-extended-september-chill-coldest-air-of-the-season-fall-storms-snow-rockies-foothills/112918/

Yes, something is afoot across the N hemisphere it seems.

I was looking at the model output the other day showing a cold shot pouring right down from the Arctic, through Canada and into the States...thought to myself 'something is afoot here'. 

[Geordiesnow]

7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, something is afoot across the N hemisphere it seems.

I was looking at the model output the other day showing a cold shot pouring right down from the Arctic, through Canada and into the States...thought to myself 'something is afoot here'. 

Yep the PV is being smashed up and migrated over to Canada whilst the Arctic is about to experience 'heatwave' conditions. To be honest for a UK perspective a PV  developing over Canada is surely not a good thing as the cold filters into the Atlantic and fires up the jet. 

[Aleman]

Sea ice has jumped in the last couple of weeks across northern Canada and is above average for the date for the first time in a decade. The last time it was this icy for the time of year was 2004 and, before, that 1996.

 

This year:

https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCSWCTWA/20180924180000_CVCSWCTWA_0010248250.pdf

https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCSWCTEA/20180924180000_CVCSWCTEA_0010248245.pdf

And the last 4 decades at this at this date:

https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHDCTWA/20180924180000_CVCHDCTWA_0010248247.pdf

https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHDCTEA/20180924180000_CVCHDCTEA_0010248243.pdf

 

Canada is certainly having an interesting autumn!

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 27, 2018 by Aleman

[reef]

The air is extremely dry today for Autumn, just 33% humidity at the moment.

With the low sun angle, max temperature of 22.6C and low humidity it feels more like a very warm day in mid-spring than almost October.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just 24% humidity here at the moment with a temperature of 23.3*C. Feels warm out in that sun!  A rocking good day for Autumn.  

Wouldn’t be too out of place in May. 

[cheeky_monkey]

16 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You've had a stonker from your posts, this September for you from what you've said would be probably be my best January since 2010 - how many inches in total of lying snow have you had?

had 5-6 snowfalls...max is about 3/4 inches of lying snow at any one time

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, cheeky_monkey said:

had 5-6 snowfalls...max is about 3/4 inches of lying snow at any one time

my max lying snow in the last 7 Januaries is about 4 Inches so yes, September is a better month where you live than January is where I live!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Keep us updated please over the course of the next 8 months and see what you end up with in total, I would suggest metres of snow overall.

[Snowyowl9]

Very clear indeed today can see for many miles 17.9c max.

 

[summer blizzard]

5 hours ago, reef said:

The air is extremely dry today for Autumn, just 33% humidity at the moment.

With the low sun angle, max temperature of 22.6C and low humidity it feels more like a very warm day in mid-spring than almost October.

I thought that too, even pretty windy. It reminded me of March 12. 

Be even better with the cooler airmass tomorrow. 

How low were the humidity values in Oct 16. 

Edited September 27, 2018 by summer blizzard

[reef]

13 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I thought that too, even pretty windy. It reminded me of March 12. 

Be even better with the cooler airmass tomorrow. 

How low were the humidity values in Oct 16. 

It didn't drop lower than 57% here all month in October 2016.

The low here today was 32%. Only seven days this century have seen lower, three of which coincidentally were also in September (back in 2003).

Edited September 27, 2018 by reef

[summer blizzard]

On an Autumn note/winter i personally consider the -AO bout to be a great thing. Very negative Octobers typically produce very negative AO winter months albeit we don't win out here in the UK. 

Looking at stonking -AO values for the time of year.

[Snowyowl9]

Cold late September 2003,ground frost.

 

[cheeky_monkey]

7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Keep us updated please over the course of the next 8 months and see what you end up with in total, I would suggest metres of snow overall.

if we slip into a weak - moderate el nino i would expect snow fall total not to be all that great..we will see

[feb1991blizzard]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

On an Autumn note/winter i personally consider the -AO bout to be a great thing. Very negative Octobers typically produce very negative AO winter months albeit we don't win out here in the UK. 

Looking at stonking -AO values for the time of year.

That's the theory the OPI worked on and it seemed to correlate well in the 70s and 80s, very low OPI values were a good predictor of -AO winters, however positive values almost ruled out the very good cold blocked winters.

[Aleman]

Unusual temperature swings for autumn (Yeovilton, Somerset and Larkhill, Wiltshire):

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03853&decoded=yes&ndays=3&ano=2018&mes=09&day=28&hora=00

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03743&decoded=yes&ndays=3&ano=2018&mes=09&day=28&hora=00

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Cold late September 2003,ground frost.

 

Cold late September 1919,air frost and snow.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

How close are we to this September being the sunniest on record?  Does anyone have a link to the sunshine record for September in the UK, and if Sept 2018 if anywhere near beating it?

[BruenSryan]

37 minutes ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

How close are we to this September being the sunniest on record?  Does anyone have a link to the sunshine record for September in the UK, and if Sept 2018 if anywhere near beating it?

They have not released (provisional) stats yet for September. You can view the sunniest Septembers on record (back to 1929) for different regions of the UK here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/datasets

Here's a table I did of Heathrow, UK and England's top 10 sunniest Septembers.

Edited September 29, 2018 by BruenSryan

[BruenSryan]

Provisionally, September 2018 recorded 115% of the average sunshine for England with 158.2 hours of sunshine so does not fall into the top 10 as shown above. @BlueSkies_do_I_see

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2018/10/01/september-statistics/

[Summer Sun]

It's a windy old day in the north

[Summer Sun]

The UK, Ireland and Iceland were the only parts of Europe shaded in blue for September