Autumn 2018

[karyo]

Last year all the long range models were showing a very mild winter (remember those orange and reds?) but in the end it was not that bad and March delivered the goods.

[Leo97t]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Last year all the long range models were showing a very mild winter (remember those orange and reds?) but in the end it was not that bad and March delivered the goods.

Well it was warmer than average overall though 

[cheeky_monkey]

5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

I thought Canada was colder during La Nina (i.e. low pressure) albeit in the west i can imagine some very dew points and minima. 

 

 chart with a -AO and pressure high over the arctic is a recipe for numerous arctic outbreaks across the prairies which gives the lowest temperatures in winter

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, Leo97t said:

Well it was warmer than average overall though 

Nope ending being an average winter at least in SE which has been hard to come by in recent years.

[Leo97t]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Nope ending being an average winter at least in SE which has been hard to come by in recent years.

Based on the cet it was above average in fact overall

[Snowyowl9]

September has been up and down last few years temperature wise,can`t remember much about last autumn.

http://www.trevorharley.com/weather_web_pages/centralengav_temperat.htm

[Yarmy]

The ECM NH Geopot anomalies for Sep/Oct/Nov:

Notable -AO and perhaps even a weak -NAO, but average for the UK? Some PM influence maybe.

As noted above, the Arctic positive height anomaly grows the further into Autumn we go, as does the negative anomaly over the UK:

OND

NDJ

 

 

[Yarmy]

For comparison with the above, the same charts from Météo France:

SON

OND

NDJ

 

[cheeky_monkey]

First frost of the season recorded sat night some areas west of the city got down to -3c..leaves are beginning to turn on some trees here already.

[Summer Sun]

Looks like we could get some pretty pleasant conditions into early Autumn

[cheese]

A nice warm September please, and a nice warm October too! Then the blizzards can arrive in November, followed by the coldest winter on record.

[Mokidugway]

7 minutes ago, cheese said:

A nice warm September please, and a nice warm October too! Then the blizzards can arrive in November, followed by the coldest winter on record.

Which translates  to 5 months of efffin  drizzle and 10 c ..

[Turnedoutniceagain]

A good dip in night-time minimas coming up this weekend. We could see 6>8c lows in rural areas.

*digs out electric blanket*

[cheese]

33 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Which translates  to 5 months of efffin  drizzle and 10 c ..

Unfortunately so.. but every year people on look forward to it. There’s no accounting for taste.

[Earthshine]

Anyone else feeling more confident this year that winter will deliver?  The weather has been strange this year up until now and with us heading into solar minimum the odds must be moving in favour of a cool winter?

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Saw a small bunch of blackberries up my garden today. 

[BruenSryan]

2 hours ago, gbrunner12 said:

Anyone else feeling more confident this year that winter will deliver?  The weather has been strange this year up until now and with us heading into solar minimum the odds must be moving in favour of a cool winter?

Thing that's holding it back if you ask me is the Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

[cheeky_monkey]

2 hours ago, BruenSryan said:

Thing that's holding it back if you ask me is the Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

and el nino which may scupper things?

[BruenSryan]

6 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

and el nino which may scupper things?

If El Nino even occurs. El Nino Modoki would be good though.

Edited August 21, 2018 by BruenSryan

[sundog]

A warm/ above average sept doesn't seem to be good for whatever reason for winter prospects over the last number of years whenever we have  had one which seems to becoming more the normal. Hope we don't have a warm one this year,we could well have though.

[damianslaw]

21 minutes ago, sundog said:

A warm/ above average sept doesn't seem to be good for whatever reason for winter prospects over the last number of years whenever we have  had one which seems to becoming more the normal. Hope we don't have a warm one this year,we could well have though.

Yes there has been a correlation to an extent, 2006, 2011, 2014, 2016 spring to mind, as warm Septembers followed by mild winters. Conversely 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2017 brought cooler Septembers followed by cold winters. 2009 however, wasn't especially cold September and what followed was the coldest winter since 78/79. 

2005 another example of a very mild Sept followed by a winter with some cold conditions at times - nothing special mind.

I think it depends on an extent to how the warm weather has come about, a persistant SW / S flow with high minima perhaps not a good omen.. whereas a blocked set up with high pressure killing off the atlantic - perhaps a better omen..

 

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

and el nino which may scupper things?

Link to Europe is pretty weak with ENSO but Nino tends to be better than Nina (though often wetter).

[Weather-history]

On 06/08/2018 at 18:04, Don said:

I won't mind a warm and dry October, but a warm/hot and dry September is a no no!

 September 2013: 13.7C --------> winter CET: 6.1C

 September 2014: 15.1C --------> winter CET: 4.5C

 September 2015 :12.6C --------> winter CET: 6.7C

 

[Mother Goose]

My Husband is a game keeper, so he always hopes for a cold Autumn, as the birds will then stay at the feeders! I love the colours of Autumn, so I'm hoping that we don't have too many gale force winds up here that blow the leaves away!

[Matthew.]

I would love to see a September and October like 1959 but this at best is probably 1 in a lifetime event. After the extended settled spell it finished with some Autumn storms too

Edited August 22, 2018 by Matthew.