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knocker

Hurricane Beryl

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Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Two has strengthened to Tropical Storm #Beryl. An updated intensity forecast will be provided in the 5 PM AST (2100 UTC) advisory. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Beryl 

Edited by knocker

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Fortunately its a v small storm, but pretty impressive how quickly it formed. Local forecasters are saying it will fizzle out before  leeward islands thanks to Sahara dust. 

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Edited by knocker

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Edited by knocker

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It's looking like strong vertical wind shear will put an end to Beryl as she approaches the Caribbean. The conditions down there are currently quite hostile for storms. Any trying to form would likely have their tops sheared off, and in Beryl's case cause degeneration as she moves into the area. Here's the latest GFS 5-day wind shear anomaly forecast for 850 - 200 hPa to 10th July:

892052106_GFSWindShear5-daymean850-200hpa5-10July.thumb.jpg.ef252138dcc36308e32a143266d69107.jpg

Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

Accuweather also tweeting that "Newly formed Atlantic Tropical Storm Beryl may not survive trip into Caribbean".

1669901747_AccuweathertweetBerylwindshear.thumb.jpg.6fb76017a67a4187f2dab1b2e51c2bcc.jpg

https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/1014942713370828803

Interestingly, Phil Klotzbach tweeting that this problem may persist well into the hurricane season:

"Latest Climate Forecast System model runs predict much stronger than normal vertical wind shear during August-October in Caribbean & a bit stronger than normal further east in tropical Atlantic. If this verifies, would likely reduce Atlantic #hurricane activity."

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1014166764618313730

 

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Edited by knocker

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Edited by knocker

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The wedding I went to yesterday they are flying to St Lucia for their honeymoon tomorrow....

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Beryl is such a small storm that it could easily weaken with shear or Sahara dust. It looks like that is what is happening this morning. 

It's track goes over Dominica which is still recovering from Maria last September. 

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Edited by knocker

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Edited by knocker
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