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Will we ever reach 40c in the UK


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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Fail.

 

The Bawtry reading is impossible IMO. It's not possible to get that hot that far north in mid summer never mind September. I call false reading.

I think that is not actually a scientific comment. I have said before I tend to doubt it but looking at historical charts reproduced for that day it is not impossible.

 

Looking at the 850mb and 1000-500mb charts for that day from Wetter.

The approximate value at 500mb is around 5820dm and the temperature at 850mb looks about 18C

DALR down to the surface at 1020mb would give a theoretical T=about 34C

The correlation of 500mb height and surface pressure suggest a 1000-500mb thickness of 5780+ which in theory could give 35C at the surface in anticyclonic conditions with air tending to descend in a very dry atmosphere.

So yes that is probably why UK Met accept it but with reservations about the site/thermometer exposure as it was at a non standar site.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

I think that Durham reading proves that the Bawtry reading could have been correct with 33.9C being reached much further north. The Doncaster area can sometimes be a hotspot in the right setup, I don't see why it being a bit further north would make it impossible, the highest temperatures aren't always in the south.

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  • 4 years later...
Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl

With a good scenario for this to happen forthcoming I thought it would be a good opportunity to revive and old debate about whether it's possible for us to reach 40 degrees in the UK. With a building heat scenario likely, it seems this could be our best chance in a long while to actually do it. 

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL

Probably happened in August 2003 but no official station was present. Officially it could happen but it would take something monumental - given August 2003 was an incredible hot spell more especially for the southern UK and Europe in general. So it would take something similar if not more special for the 40C milestone to be breached by a Met Office weather station. I think the UK is just too far North plus we're an island and not part of the European landmass so both cold and hot air masses are moderated. Making it harder for us to see extreme temps. 

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

I think it's certainly possible. We've nearly made it before in 2003.

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

Like I have said before,No. The fact is Paris has only just scraped over at 40.2 deg and Germanys record high is almost the same at 40.3deg.The fact that we have recorded 38 deg + in this country is a minor miracle as we do not get the full heat of the continent and are surrounded by cool water.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

yes, i'd say if a SE setup lasts long enough, then low to west, high to east with a long southerly waft, if we do, likely last day of the hot spell, cooler next day

SE England only, mid Jul to mid Aug, would say not possible in June

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
20 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

Like I have said before,No. The fact is Paris has only just scraped over at 40.2 deg and Germanys record high is almost the same at 40.3deg.The fact that we have recorded 38 deg + in this country is a minor miracle as we do not get the full heat of the continent and are surrounded by cool water.

Then again, hippopotamuses' remains have been dug out of London clay...IMO, what has happened before can happen again?:D 

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
On 23/06/2018 at 11:08, Frost HoIIow said:

Probably happened in August 2003 but no official station was present. Officially it could happen but it would take something monumental - given August 2003 was an incredible hot spell more especially for the southern UK and Europe in general. So it would take something similar if not more special for the 40C milestone to be breached by a Met Office weather station. I think the UK is just too far North plus we're an island and not part of the European landmass so both cold and hot air masses are moderated. Making it harder for us to see extreme temps. 

I don't think not being part of the European landmass completely rules it out. As our temperature records are able to be break so to must the mainland European ones in a particular hot spell, we'd need a severe heatwave in western Europe, but it's certainly possible for that to happen. It looks increasingly unlikely in this cold spell but pretty sure it could happen one day with the right scenario. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

I don't think not being part of the European landmass completely rules it out. As our temperature records are able to be break so to must the mainland European ones in a particular hot spell, we'd need a severe heatwave in western Europe, but it's certainly possible for that to happen. It looks increasingly unlikely in this cold spell but pretty sure it could happen one day with the right scenario. 

Cold spell?

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
1 hour ago, Deep Snow please said:

I don't think not being part of the European landmass completely rules it out. As our temperature records are able to be break so to must the mainland European ones in a particular hot spell, we'd need a severe heatwave in western Europe, but it's certainly possible for that to happen. It looks increasingly unlikely in this cold spell but pretty sure it could happen one day with the right scenario. 

I'm just curious as to why it hasn't happened yet, it can't be bad luck but surely where we are situated given Germany is as far north as much of the UK and has reached 40C. It's the polar opposite as the - 30C argument. It's difficult to get extreme temps here because of the sea around us. 

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

We are surrounded by relatively cool water though and this has a significant impact on temperature as it tends to moderate any heat (even if it only by a small degree).

Similar to winter cold spells, a continental location will always have greater extremes. 

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl

Actually a serious chance of this happening based on this evenings model output, requires a slight tweak in adjustment for that hottest part of the high pressure system to land over us though.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
29 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Actually a serious chance of this happening based on this evenings model output, requires a slight tweak in adjustment for that hottest part of the high pressure system to land over us though.

Seriously?

If the last two-days' upgrades/downgrades are anything to go by, we've got more chance of being struck by an intergalactic kitchen sink!

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Seriously?

If the last two-days' upgrades/downgrades are anything to go by, we've got more chance of being struck by an intergalactic kitchen sink!

I'm aware it's far from nailed on, but the upgrades/downgrades are part of the reason there's a serious chance, it's essentially another upgrade which given the model's recent tendency to act like a granny's meeting with conversation just following on until boom it goes off in a tangent and back again, means there's a realistic chance of that upgrade. That pool of air over France is definitely in with a change of threatening the 38c record, I don't personally want any more sunshine and am willing the breakdown on, but if we're stuck with this crap I'd rather see a few all time records broken than monthly/local ones.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
48 minutes ago, ARW WeatherMan said:

Think their may have been a mistake there?

Screenshot_20180716-143209_Samsung Internet.jpg

maybe there is a car idling next to the station !

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Posted
  • Location: St.Albans, Hertfordshire
  • Location: St.Albans, Hertfordshire
22 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

maybe there is a car idling next to the station !

Yeah! another ice cream truck! Wouldn't blame em! It's another hot one down here in the south

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  • 5 years later...
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Well...

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Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and cool summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
On 05/06/2013 at 18:00, Polar Maritime said:

I hope not.

Sorry!

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, thunderstorms, warmth, sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl

Next threshold is 105F or 41°C, maybe by 2030-2035?

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Location: Peterborough

As we have reached 40 degrees in 2022, I think this thread should be renamed to "will we reach 45 degrees in the UK" I think that should keep people debating for a little while

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