Will we ever reach 40c in the UK

[Barry12]

The closest we ever got was 38.5C In Faversham, Kent, in 2003.

[Summer Sun]

Don't see why not it would take an exceptional heatwave but as they say you can never say never

[Bottesford]

Possible but extremely unlikely. Everything would have to be perfect and France & even more so Spain would be on fire!

[Jax]

Possible but extremely unlikely. Everything would have to be perfect and France & would be on fire!

[Polar Maritime]

I hope not.

[Jax]

I hope not.

I would in all honesty agree with that, our extreme heat normally comes with bad ass humidity...

 

 

...no ta!

[Eugene]

Of course we will at some point in the UK's history, you didn't put a timeline, 40C has unofficially been recorded before in the 19th century but before reliable screening so not recognised, i'm sure it has before and it will again, just knowing when is the problem.

[J10]

It could have hit 40C in August 2003 if it stayed sunny that day. (Sunday 10th August)

[Milhouse]

It would have to be as a result of extreme heat over Europe and a deep sourced southerly lasting for several days allowing the heat to build.

[summer blizzard]

To get 40C is possible but you would need to lay the groundwork and have several things happen to gleam that out of the atmosphere...

 

1) Soil moisture over the UK and Europe - Most people don't look at this but if your heat is coming from a drenched continent it's not going to be as warm as it could be - Because of this you will need a large part of the March-June period to be very dry over the UK and central/western Europe

 

2) Preceding few weeks - In order to get the required heat in the preceding say month you need several plumes so that you get a good pool of 15C uppers and warm temperatures over central Europe in the same way you want a pool of cold over Scandinavia before the easterly develops in winter.

 

3) Perfect Synoptic and lasting several days - As you see from the chart below you have the shortest sea track from a hot continent with high thickness values and high pressure, the only way to improve that chart is for a more developed weakness north of the Azores to act as a greater heat pump from the south...

 

 

Many people will prefer 2003 for taking the record however this got 37.9C in cooler uppers and further north in general (2003 did not beat 1990 in Leeds).

[UV-RAY]

I hope it never does as those sort of temps kill far more people than cold, 25c is perfect.

[mike Meehan]

It would have to be as a result of extreme heat over Europe and a deep sourced southerly lasting for several days allowing the heat to build.

Ah, a 'canicule' as they call it in France - I dare say that 40C has been achieved in the past and it will do so again but as to whether I see it will be a different matter - at the same time we now have an air to air heat pump which doubles as air con

[Terminal Moraine]

I hope not.

And I second that! I'd much rather it reached -40c.

[A.J]

come back in a a couple of billion years time and the average daytime temperature in the UK will be a toasty 400C never mind 40C!!

[laserguy]

come back in a a couple of billion years time and the average daytime temperature in the UK will be a toasty 400C never mind 40C!!

 

Damn that global warming!

[nitro_deluxe]

come back in a a couple of billion years time and the average daytime temperature in the UK will be a toasty 400C never mind 40C!!

 

Shocker! complete..shocker...i do feel for our utility companies, imagine their dwindling profits! perhaps we should have a whip round? honest..

 

40C hmmm, would need a breeze direct from the Sahara desert, lay some massive concrete blocks across the width of the channel..then who knows lol.

Edited June 5, 2013 by triple_x1

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think it probably will at some stage.  At a simplistic level, if, by the end of the 21st century, mean global and regional temperatures are about 2C above 2003 levels (which seems very plausible to me, if anything it is towards the conservative side of the IPCC's estimate range) then if the synoptics of 1st-10th August 2003 were to be repeated we would probably get above 40C. 

 

However it may well not happen within most of our lifetimes.

[Styx]

No reason why it couldn't happen in the next major west European heatwave event? Up until 2009 in Tasmania the highest temperature on this island was 40.8C at 2 localities in 100 or so years of observations ...but in that year (2009) there were 2 days in which another half a dozen stations broke that particular record, for a new island high of 42.2C top! An astonishing 1.4C rise from record to record! Then this year, Hobart came close to eclipsing that with 41.8C.  I think it just goes to show that you never never know.    

Edited June 5, 2013 by Styx

[davehsug]

I suppose it may well have been exceeded during the medieval warm period? As said though, a lot of things would have to fall into place & I'm pretty sure I wouldn't welcome it anymore than I'd welcome -40c!

[cheeky_monkey]

i wonder if that August 2003 or 1990 set up had happened in the first two weeks of July how close to 40c it would have got bearing in mind the days are slightly longer than in August

[nitro_deluxe]

Imagine if we did hit it in August 2013! Now that would be uncanny

Edited June 6, 2013 by triple_x1

[kold weather]

I strongly suspect that had a similar set-up developed during the earl August period of 2006 we'd have got that 40C, as we had by that time a nice warm channel and soil temps would probably be about as high as your likely going to get in this country with current conditions.

[GRHinPorts]

i wonder if that August 2003 or 1990 set up had happened in the first two weeks of July how close to 40c it would have got bearing in mind the days are slightly longer than in August

 

 

I strongly suspect that had a similar set-up developed during the earl August period of 2006 we'd have got that 40C, as we had by that time a nice warm channel and soil temps would probably be about as high as your likely going to get in this country with current conditions.

 

Surely for this reason the highest possible temperatures would be more likely to come in early August rather than late July. There being a sweet spot between the warming of the soil and the shortening of the days and I thought I had read the optimum date was therefore August the 12th. 

Edited June 6, 2013 by GRHinPorts

[Summer of 95]

I reckon we already have several times since the end of the ice age, just not since reliable measurements began in the late 19th century. 

[marky810]

Only if global warming is real.........