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Roger J Smith

July 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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Just about every warm temperature record under threat on the 12z GFS! Topping out with daily means over 26C, maxima around 34C and minima above 20C.
An overall finish above 20C before corrections is likely too.

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28 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Just about every warm temperature record under threat on the 12z GFS! Topping out with daily means over 26C, maxima around 34C and minima above 20C.
An overall finish above 20C before corrections is likely too.

Huge heat outlier, worthy only of wrapping fish and chips come tomorrow , if it was in print!

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Fine balance at the moment - the atlantic looks like having some influence next week, cut off slow moving low territory throwing up instability - indeed injecting this into the warm humid southerly air - real heat looks reserved for SE quarter, though perhaps low 30's in some central parts. Minima does though look very high - horrid humidity sultry conditions.

Still firmly don't believe this month will be the warmest on record.

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19.4 to the 18th

3.4 above the 61 to 90 average

3.0 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________ 

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd 

Current low this month 19.4 to the 17th & 18th

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Exceptionally dry June-July periods for England and Wales (<60mm)

1800: 35.8

1868: 36.5

1976: 48.8

1921: 39.6

1995: 57.8

1887: 58.9

 

 

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Sunny Sheffield still at 19.4C +3.7C above normal. Rainfall unchanged. Temperatures probably won't alter very much here as the max temperatures forecast for here are around the same value for the month already. If GFS 121oz is correct nights look to be warmer and this may push the figures up a little for a while but not by much.

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Back end of next week could see a few days of 50c combined (32max/18min) temps, so 25c average in places. Even in the recording zone you are probably going to see 30max/15min, and with anything cool off the menu really for the rest of the month, this July is going to follow June and be an all time great summer month.

 

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Sunny Sheffield still at 19.4C and probably will be another drop tomorrow. Anyway +3.6C above normal. No rainfall so unchanged at 4.5mm 7.9% of average.

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19.3 to the 19th

3.4 above the 61 to 90 average

2.9 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________ 

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd 

Current low this month 19.3 to the 19th

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Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

19.2C to the 20th... +2.7 (17.0: -0.2)
19.1C to the 21st... +2.6 (18.4: +1.5)
19.1C to the 22nd... +2.6 (19.3: +2.4)
19.3C to the 23rd... +2.8 (22.5: +5.6) [Daily Record = 22.4C from 1989]
19.3C to the 24th... +2.8 (20.0: +3.4)
19.3C to the 25th... +2.8 (19.3: +2.3)
19.3C to the 26th... +2.7 (19.2: +2.0)
19.4C to the 27th... +2.8 (20.9: +3.7)
19.3C to the 28th... +2.7 (17.0: -0.4)
19.3C to the 29th... +2.6 (18.3: +0.6)

Ranging between average and record breaking for thee next 10 days, with the CET remaining on 19.3C in the final 2 days are also included.
At this stage I'd say a finish on between 18.6 and 19.9C is likely before corrections, then 18.1C to 20C after corrections. At the very least, we get a July that in the top 10% of the warmest on record.

CET_20_7_18.thumb.JPG.0861d8b4500218a5c8760931d0e49e87.JPG

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3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Pretty consistent heat aswell with potentially only five days all month with a mean below 18C and one below 17C. I must say, back in 2006 I thought July was one of those records we'd have to wait a long time to beat or even get near to again - as 19C+ months are such a rare thing, but here we are just 12 years later. 

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3 hours ago, reef said:

Pretty consistent heat aswell with potentially only five days all month with a mean below 18C and one below 17C. I must say, back in 2006 I thought July was one of those records we'd have to wait a long time to beat or even get near to again - as 19C+ months are such a rare thing, but here we are just 12 years later. 

Seems very timely to me.

12 years between July 1983 and August 1995.

11 years between August 1995 and July 2006.

12 years between July 2006 and July 2018.

Almost like clockwork.

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Sunny Sheffield down to 19.3C +3.5C above normal. If it stays cloudy another fall for today. Rainfall now 7.3mm 12.8% of monthly average.

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19.2 to the 20th

3.3 above the 61 to 90 average

2.7 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________ 

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd 

Current low this month 19.2 to the 20th

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The 06z is a very warm one with the CET climbing again from Monday, taking the average temperature to 19.6C by months end.
Toppling the 2006 record of 19.7C can't be ruled out quite yet.

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One point to make is that you'll need the very hot weather to extend further north and west than what is currently being shown for it to have a big impact on the CET values. Hot weather for the SE only won't be of much use. The CET zone goes all the way to Stoneyhurst in Lancashire - and it's not been overly warm there in recent days.

Edited by cheese
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22 hours ago, reef said:

Pretty consistent heat aswell with potentially only five days all month with a mean below 18C and one below 17C. I must say, back in 2006 I thought July was one of those records we'd have to wait a long time to beat or even get near to again - as 19C+ months are such a rare thing, but here we are just 12 years later. 

Given that there have only been three 19C+ summer months i don't think we can really state how far apart they should be. They are a product of global warming, man made or not. 

Since 1950 however we do know that 18C summer months occur once every 7 years on average though so we are about on point (indeed it was actually the 94-97 and 03-06 periods which were anomolies (2013 was 7 years after 06 and we are 5 years after 2013 so more or less normal). 

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With the recent change in the models to keep the heat it is now all but confirmed (we needed 18.7C) that we have had the hottest May-July period on record. 

Likely to come third for the hottest June-July post corrections (need to match July 06 at 19.7C post corrections to beat 1976, 19.6 beats 2006 to second).

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Don't think the final figure will be above 19c, pretty close though.

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2 hours ago, cheese said:

One point to make is that you'll need the very hot weather to extend further north and west than what is currently being shown for it to have a big impact on the CET values. Hot weather for the SE only won't be of much use. The CET zone goes all the way to Stoneyhurst in Lancashire - and it's not been overly warm there in recent days.

Exactly Its always biased for the SE.

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9 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Exactly Its always biased for the SE.

How so?

If you had said western bias, I would have agreed.

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22 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Seems very timely to me.

12 years between July 1983 and August 1995.

11 years between August 1995 and July 2006.

12 years between July 2006 and July 2018.

Almost like clockwork.

Fancy correlating that with solar minimums? or Solar cycles.

 

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1 hour ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Fancy correlating that with solar minimums? or Solar cycles.

 

06 was about on par with 16/17. Near the start of a minima. 

95 was about on par with 16/17 since the 96 minima was not all that deep (there's a not unreasonable chance that 2018 beats 1996).

83 was not close to a minimum and the minimum of solar cycle 21 (1986) was so poor that it is not in the top 25 years for spotless days.

..

I see what you are getting at but 2018 has more in common with 07/08 in terms of solar activity (we are running between the two to date) than any of the other years albeit 06 and 95 were similar (mainly because the minimum of 96 was pretty weak).   

 

 

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6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

06 was about on par with 16/17. Near the start of a minima. 

95 was about on par with 16/17 since the 96 minima was not all that deep (there's a not unreasonable chance that 2018 beats 1996).

83 was not close to a minimum and the minimum of solar cycle 21 (1986) was so poor that it is not in the top 25 years for spotless days.

..

I see what you are getting at but 2018 has more in common with 07/08 in terms of solar activity (we are running between the two to date) than any of the other years albeit 06 and 95 were similar (mainly because the minimum of 96 was pretty weak).   

 

 

Brilliant response.  Maybe there's some form of lag between solar cycles and climatology?  11-12 years is very consistent.  Was 1973 a +19*C CET?

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