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Roger J Smith

July 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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18.9c Warm and Dry for the first 3 weeks followed by a thundery breakdown 

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Changed my mind somewhat as latest guidance less robust for a cooling trend, still think it won't be any 2006 outcome but maybe 17.9, 57.5 mm the new call.

Will post a bit of a summary if I have time of all forecasts but it may not appear until Sunday morning. 

We have had some rather cool weather relative to our normals here in the past week to ten days, probably running 2-3 deg below average through that span after several weeks of anomalous warmth May and early June. The extreme heat has shifted to eastern North America for a while. 

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Me thinking July is going to be a scorcher.  Going with 18.9C and 50mm please.  Not a normal summer this year.

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17.9C and 33mm

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A stonking great 18.7*C and 42 mm please and I suspect I'm being a bit cowardly there!

☀️

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18.7c and 35mm

I was thinking of drier but a few T storms may quickly blow that out of the water.

 

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I will go with 18.4 degrees, very warm first half, not record breaking as we will see more of anticylonic overhead feature, rather than a humid southerly flow, becoming cooler in the north second half, but still a little above average, southern parts remaining above average throughout.

Another very dry month - wettest parts NW.

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17.6°C

35mm

Thank you please!

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Summary of forecasts to date:

__ CET forecasts show two- or three-letter codes for forecaster followed by order of final version (earlier versions are not counted in that), and 

__ EWP forecasts show just two- or three-letter codes since scores there do not depend on order submitted to break ties.

Note for J10: According to my computer time, all these are on time or fall within a five minute grace period. 

CET

(22.0_LG_29), (21.2_DSP_26) (19.8_DRL_16) (19.2_Emm_58) (19.1_Ter_45) (19.0_PG_08, Dun_53)

(18.9_EdS_12, Dami_43, Che_47, Don_49, Dav_55) (18.8_385_09, DWW_20, S60_41)

(18.7_TJM_02, Jef_11, Sin_52, J10_56 (18.6_Ste_04) (18.5_Sea_27, Leo_36, StF_40, DS_51)

(18.4_Pit_22, Dam_57, Nor_61) (18.3_IRA252_23, MWB_44) (18.2_w-h_31, _MIA_46) consensus

(18.1_CPS_06, LIS_15, Thu_54, Ken_60) (18.0_Peg_03, Reef_30, Met_59)

(17.9_Kir_05, Doc_35, SS_37, RJS_48, Mul_50) (17.8_BFTV_25, MBa_38)

(17.7_Cap_17) (17.6_SumB_13, Chr_07, Map_62) (17.5_DRS_21, DK3_28, Syed_33)

(17.4_Rad_10, Bob_14, Jon_24) (17.3_sno_18, sun_39) (17.1_Dan_32) (17.0_w26_01)

(16.8_God_42) (16.7_1981-2010 and 1988-2017 averages) (16.6_vir_19) (16.3_Rel_34)

___ 62 on time forecasts, median 18.2 ___

EWP

(340_DSP)* (200_LG) (112_w26) (89_vir) (84_LIS)

71.1_average for 1988-2017, 65.4_average for 1981-2010

(65_Syed) (61_Dav) (57.5_RJS) (55_DRS, Bob) (54_Jef) (53_Dan) (50_Jon, Rel, Don)

(49.9_DK3) (48_BFTV, God) (45_Leo) (42_Rad, Sin) (Sea_40)

(39_Peg, Reef) (38_Doc) (36.6__consensus) (35.1_Thu) (35_J10, Map)

(33_Mul) (32.3_Chr) (32_w-h) (30_Dami)

(28_CPS) (27.1_PG) (27_Cap, MIA) (25,6_Kir) (25_S60, DS)

(22_StF, Emm, Nor) (20.3_Ste) (20_DRL, Pit, Dun)

(14_TJM) (13.6_Ter) (12_385) (7_EdS)

__ 50 forecasts, consensus 36.6 mean of 25th and 26th ranked __ 

_________________________________________________________________

*note to Deep Snow please 340 mm or did you mean 34.0? Can change in final table if that's what you meant. 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Oops I missed it, I'll go with 18.6 with low rainfall, perhaps about 25 mm.

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July CET 1981-2010 averages, and extremes 1772-2017

date _ CET _ (cum) ____ Max, Min 1772-2017 ________ 2017 extremes

01 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773)

02 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.3 (1821)

03 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (1976) __ 10.1 (1907)

04 __ 16.0 __ 15.9 ___ 24.7 (1976) __ 10.0 (1965)

05 __ 16.4 __ 16.0 ___ 24.0 (1852) __ 10.7 (1920)

06 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 ___ 23.3 (1976) __ 11.3 (1877) ____ 21.0 (2017)

07 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 __ 22.6 (1923,1976) _ 11.1 (1877)

08 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 __ 21.4 (1870,1976) _ 10.6 (1823)

09 __ 16.3 __ 16.2 ___ 21.6 (1921) __ 11.0 (1856)

10 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 ___ 22.1 (1921) __ 11.2 (1993)

11 __ 16.7 __ 16.3 ___ 22.6 (1783) ___ 9.4 (1888) ________ 14.5 (2017)

12 __ 16.5 __ 16.3 ___ 23.7 (1923) __ 11.0 (1840)

13 __ 16.6 __ 16.3 ___ 24.5 (1808) __ 10.2 (1840)

14 __ 16.8 __ 16.3 ___ 24.4 (1808) __ 11.7 (1961)

15 __ 17.0 __ 16.4 ___ 23.7 (1825) __ 11.5 (1883)

16 __ 16.8 __ 16.4 ___ 22.7 (2003) __ 11.5 (1823)

17 __ 16.3 __ 16.4 ___ 22.3 (1834) __ 11.0 (1892)

18 __ 16.5 __ 16.4 ___ 23.3 (1825) __ 10.1 (1863) ____ 19.3 (2017)

19 __ 16.9 __ 16.4 ___ 24.5 (2006) __ 10.6 (1892)

20 __ 17.2 __ 16.5 ___ 23.5 (2016) ___ 8.7 (1836)

21 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.1 (1868) __ 11.3 (1902)

22 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.2 (1868) __ 11.5 (1902) _________ 14.9 (2017)

23 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 22.4 (1989) __ 10.1 (1843)

24 __ 16.6 __ 16.5 ___ 23.9 (1818) __ 11.1 (1843)

25 __ 17.0 __ 16.6 ___ 22.7 (2006) __ 10.9 (1920)

26 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 23.2 (2006) __ 11.0 (1884)

27 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 21.9 (1948) __ 10.6 (1867)

28 __ 17.4 __ 16.6 ___ 23.7 (1948) __ 11.8 (1886,1891)

29 __ 17.7 __ 16.7 ___ 25.2 (1948) __ 11.0 (1816)

30 __ 17.4 __ 16.7 ___ 23.1 (1948) __ 10.6 (1786)

31 __ 17.2 __ 16.7 __ 23.4 (1943,1995) __ 10.9 (1841)

_________________________________________________

Last year averaged 16.8 C ... the last twelve days were cool, average only 15.8 C.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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20.8 to the 1st

5.1 above the 61 to 90 average

4.9 above the 81 to 10 average

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