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Roger J Smith

July 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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At 19.1c July 2018 is the first July or any month ever to record that exact figure. As well as one of only 3 July's to have yet recorded a CET of 19.0 +, these been 2006 at 19.7c and 1983 at 19.5c making it the third warmest July on record. I've also had to edit this post because I forgot about August 1995 which had a CET of 19.2c and for a moment thought July 18 was the third warmest month in the CET record, when it's in fact the fourth.

Edited by Walsall Wood Snow

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So we've had:

April - 24th warmest
May - 18th warmest
June - 18th warmest
July - 3rd warmest

Bearing in mind we're talking over a period 360 years, that's a pretty prolonged warm run.

If we can muster an 18.2C August (7th or 8th warmest) then we'll have the warmest summer on record, beating 1976.

Edited by reef

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A few other notable records and stats for the month.

We had 1 record warm day, that was 22.5C on the 27th. This beats the previous record of 21.9C set in 1948. There are now only 2 days remaining in July with record values below 22C, the 8th and 9th at 21.4C and 21.6C respectively.

The number of days at or above 17C during the month was a record, at 29. This beats the previous record of 28, set once more in 1783.

The 30 year average for July up to 2018 is now the warmest on record, at 16.9C. This beats the previous warmest 30 year average set last year, of 16.7C.


July.thumb.JPG.e157df66c3dcd670fd9eda02d5b12801.JPG

EDIT: Thanks for spotting the error, @Relativistic

Edited by BornFromTheVoid

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1 minute ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

The coldest day of the month was 16.6C on the 29th. This is the warmest cold day of July on record, beating the previous record of 16.3C that was set was back in 1783.

Was just about to mention the lowest daily mean, but the 17th recorded 16.2°C so we didn't manage to break that.

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The last few days of July 2018 have tarnished this month. It ended up not being that dry. Overall figures for England and Wales suggest that it may be just a little drier than July 2016, believe it or not. 

My impression is that the second of half of July hasn't been that special around here. This is borne out by the Manchester Summer Index plateauing since mid July. 

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4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The last few days of July 2018 have tarnished this month. It ended up not being that dry. Overall figures for England and Wales suggest that it may be just a little drier than July 2016, believe it or not. 

My impression is that the second of half of July hasn't been that special around here. This is borne out by the Manchester Summer Index plateauing since mid July. 

Sunshine-wise it hasn't, but there have still been a number of very warm to hot days in the 2nd half of the month. And hardly any cool days I've noticed. At Rostherne near Manchester Airport there was only one maximum below 20C in the 2nd half of the month- and that day (28th) still exceeded 19C. 3 days in the 2nd half reached 29C+.

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I’ve collected some statistics together. Some of the stuff here may have been mentioned by myself or others already, so apologies if you see any repeats.

 

Some statistics for July 2018:

A final figure of 19.1°C makes July 2018 the third hottest July on record and fourth hottest month on record.

The lowest daily mean was 16.2°C on the 17th, which is the second highest of any month on the record, behind July 1783 whose lowest daily mean was 16.3°C.

Joint highest with 1783 for the most July daily means above 16°C (31).

Most July daily means above 17°C (29), beating 1783 (28).

Second highest for the number of July daily means above 18°C (23), behind 1983 (25) and ahead of 1783, 2006, and 2013 (21).

Joint-third highest with 1921 for the number of July daily means above 19°C (16), behind 1983 and 2006 (21), and above 1911 (15).

Third highest for the number of July daily means above 20°C (11), behind 2006 (15) and 1983 (13), and above 1995 (10).

(With two days above 22°C and an additional day over 21°C, the corresponding ranks for 21°C and 22°C are much lower.)

In addition to all 31 days of July 2018, the last six days of June 2018* all recorded daily means above 16°C, which puts us on a 37-day streak of such days; this is joint with 17th July to 22nd August 1911 as the second-longest streak of this kind on record, behind only 1783, which managed 44 such days from 22nd June to 4th August. This record will probably fall.

 

Some statistics for 2018:

The June-July period is the joint-third hottest on record with 1826 (17.60°C), behind 2006 (17.80°C) and 1976 (17.85°C).

The May-July period is the hottest on record (16.13°C).

The April-July period is the hottest on record (14.55°C).

Despite what was overall a cool March, the March-July period is the second hottest on record (12.62°C) just behind 2017 (12.72°C).

 

* Apologies here. In a previous post I made an error and quoted seven days instead of six.

Edited by Relativistic

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Edmonton has finished on 18.7c ..ave high 24.8c ave low 12.6c...highest max 32.3c lowest min 8.2c ..rainfall 67.8mm

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45 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

I’ve collected some statistics together. Some of the stuff here may have been mentioned by myself or others already, so apologies if you see any repeats.

 

Some statistics for July 2018:

A final figure of 19.1°C makes July 2018 the third hottest July on record and fourth hottest month on record.

The lowest daily mean was 16.2°C on the 17th, which is the second highest of any month on the record, behind July 1783 whose lowest daily mean was 16.3°C.

Joint highest with 1783 for the most July daily means above 16°C (31).

Most July daily means above 17°C (29), beating 1783 (28).

Second highest for the number of July daily means above 18°C (23), behind 1983 (25) and ahead of 1783, 2006, and 2013 (21).

Joint-third highest with 1921 for the number of July daily means above 19°C (16), behind 1983 and 2006 (21), and above 1911 (15).

Third highest for the number of July daily means above 20°C (11), behind 2006 (15) and 1983 (13), and above 1995 (10).

(With two days above 22°C and an additional day over 21°C, the corresponding ranks for 21°C and 22°C are much lower.)

In addition to all 31 days of July 2018, the last six days of June 2018* all recorded daily means above 16°C, which puts us on a 37-day streak of such days; this is joint with 17th July to 22nd August 1911 as the second-longest streak of this kind on record, behind only 1783, which managed 44 such days from 22nd June to 4th August. This record will probably fall.

 

Some statistics for 2018:

The June-July period is the joint-third hottest on record with 1826 (17.60°C), behind 2006 (17.80°C) and 1976 (17.85°C).

The May-July period is the hottest on record (16.13°C).

The April-July period is the hottest on record (14.55°C).

Despite what was overall a cool March, the March-July period is the second hottest on record (12.62°C) just behind 2017 (12.72°C).

 

* Apologies here. In a previous post I made an error and quoted seven days instead of six.

Many thanks for this post, really interesting figures.

What has impressed me the most is the amount of times 1783 has appeared over last week or so for the continuous heat!.

Thanks again.

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8 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

So July didn't drop below 19.1c for the entire month does anyone know when that last happened?

Only possible candidates are July 1983, August 1995, and July 2006.

July 1983 failed on the first day, with a mean of 13.7°C.

August 1995 bottomed out at 19.2°C on the final day.

July 2006 bottomed out at 18.3°C on the 15th.

 

2 hours ago, Bullseye said:

Many thanks for this post, really interesting figures.

What has impressed me the most is the amount of times 1783 has appeared over last week or so for the continuous heat!.

Thanks again.

The year 1794 also showed up in a few places. That year had a 33-day period where all daily means exceeded or equalled 16°C, an overall mean up to the end of July of 10.19°C (precisely the same as 2018), and similar June and July means to 2018 (15.7°C and 18.1°C, respectively).

Edited by Relativistic

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2 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Only possible candidates are July 1983, August 1995, and July 2006.

July 1983 failed on the first day, with a mean of 13.7°C.

August 1995 bottomed out at 19.2°C on the final day.

July 2006 bottomed out at 18.3°C on the 15th.

 

The year 1794 also showed up in a few places. That year had a 33-day period where all daily means exceeded or equalled 16°C, an overall mean up to the end of July of 10.19°C (precisely the same as 2018), and similar June and July means to 2018 (15.7°C and 18.1°C, respectively).

Might not mean anything, but interestingly both 1783 and and 1794 were followed by really cold Winters. Indeed both January's 1784 and 1795 were sub zero with CETs of -0.6c and -3.1c respectively. Just for fun of course but something to clutch at for now maybe 😉

Edited by Walsall Wood Snow

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Congrats to Terminal Moraine who was on the money for this fourth warmest month ever.

Polar Gael, Duncan McAlister, and Emmett Garland appear to be 2nd through 4th (same 0.1 errors, order of entry for scoring differences ... Metaltron made a wise late revision to 19.3 but will finish behind a group of five at 18.9.

Now, here's an update on our non-human competition ...

 

Update on CET scoring for consensus and two recent normals (Dec-July)

  

___ Past months ____

____________DEC _________________________ JAN ________________________ FEB

"Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range)

1987-2016*__ +0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 (88-17)>--0.6 __66.7 - 74.1 _ 15 to 19 ______ +1.9 _ 31.2 - 35.1 _ 51 to 54

1981-2010 __ --0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 ______ --0.9 __ 50.0 - 55.6 _ 25 to 28 ______ +1.5 _ 48.1 - 49.4 _ 40 to 41

Consensus __--0.6 __ 71.0 - 74.9 __20 to 23 _____--0.9 __ 50.0 -55.6 _ 25 to 28 _______+1.1 _ 57.1 - 58.4 _ 33 to 34

* becomes 1988-2017 from JAN onward.

____________ MAR ___________________________________ APR _____________________ MAY ____________ 

"Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range)

1988-2017 __ +1.9 __ 20.8 - 22.1 __ 60 to 61 ____ --1.1 __ 72.2--72,2 __ 18 to 18 _____ --1.3 _ 28.6 - 33.3 _ 43 to 46

1981-2010 __ +1.7 __ 26.1 - 26.1 __ 57 to 57 ____ --1.3 __ 57.4--65.6 __ 22 to 27 _____ --1.5 _ 19.1 - 20.5 _ 51 to 52

Consensus __--0.3 __ 78.9 - 85.5 __12 to 17 ____ --1.4 __ 50.8--55.8 __ 28 to 31 ______ --1.0 _ 46.1 - 54.0 _ 30 to 35

 

______________JUN _______________________

"Forecaster" _Jun Error_ Jun Points (range)_rank (range)

 

1988-2017 ___ --1.5 _____ 12.0 - 12.0 ____ 57 to 57 

1981-2010 ___ --1.6 _____ 04.1 - 10.4 ____ 58 to 62 

Consensus ___--0.3 _____ 74.9 - 82.7 ____ 12 to 17 

 

________ Current Month __ July 2018 ________________ Contest year averages to date (8 mo)___

"Forecaster" _July Error_July Points (range)_rank (range) // mean abs error_mean points_mean rank

1988-2017 ___ --2.4 _____ 03.1 - 03.1 ____ 63 to 63 ________ 1.36 _____ 40.5 - 43.4 __ 40 to 42

1981-2010 ___ --2.4 _____ 03.1 - 03.1 ____ 63 to 63 ________ 1.39 _____ 37.2 - 40.7 __ 41 to 43

Consensus ___--0.9 _____ 51.6 - 53.2 ____ 31 to 32 ________ 0.81 _____ 60.0 - 66.2 __ 24 to 28

___________________________________________________________________________

Consensus continues to pull away from the random normals this month. Unlike last year, though, consensus is well out of the top ten and ranking in the mid 20s. The two normals are now in the bottom third of the scoring table.

 

 3

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The NCIC version of the EWP is in already at 39.5 mm.

This creates a three-way tie for top score of 10.0 ... the top ten for July follow

RANK ___ FORECASTER ___ Fcst __ Error ___ Points

__ 01 ____ Seasonality _____ 40.0 ___ +0.5 ___ 10.0

__ 01 ____ Pegg24, Reef ___ 39.0 ___ --0.5 ___ 10.0

__ 04 ____ Doctor32 _______ 38.0 ___ --1.5 ____ 9.4

__ 05 ____ Rad Den, Sing** _ 42.0 ___ +2.5 ____ 9.2

__ 07 ____ TWS, consensus _ 35.1 ___ --4.4 ____ 8.8

__ 08 ____ J10, Mapantz ____ 35.0 ___ --4.5 ____ 8.6

__ 10 ____ Leo97T _________ 45.0 ___ +5.5 ____ 8.2

** full user names for t-5 and 7th ...Radiating Dendrite, Singularity, Thundery Wintry Showers.

>>> Look for a complete scoring update in the contest thread by late today or early Friday.

Annual standings will also be updated. (Hadley EWP value scoring also made available at some point later this month).

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Updated annual EWP contest leaders ... all stats can be seen over in the contest scoring thread.

 Rank _ Forecaster _____________Dec_Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul__TOTAL_ previous rank

   

 _01 __ SINGULARITY ___________5.2 _7.2 _9.8 _7.7 _6.4 _8.0 _5.7 _9.2__ 59.2 ____ 02

 _02 __ POLAR GAEL ___________ 4.6 _9.4 _8.6 _2.6 _8.2 _9.6 _8.4 _5.5 __ 56.9 ____ 01

 _03 __  J10 ___________________ 4.4 _7.6 _0.7 _8.3 _9.2 _9.8 _4.3 _8.6 __ 52.9 ____ 05

 T04 __ JONBOY _______________ 9.2 _7.8 _6.4 _9.6 _7.5 _3.7 _0.6 _6.3 __ 51.1 ____ 04

T04 __  BORN FROM THE VOID___6.4 _9.8 _3.5 _5.7 _7.5 _9.0 _1.8 _7.4 __ 51.1 ____ 06

 _06_ CHRISBELL-nottheWxMAN _10.0 _6.8 _2.6 _6.4 _4.0 _3.9 _9.2 _7.8 __ 50.7 ____T-09

 _07 __ DON __________________ 1.8 _6.1 _7.4 _8.3 _8.8 _4.3 _6.8 _6.3 __ 49.8 ____ 07

(08) __ consensus _____________5.2 _6.3 _5.0 _5.7_7.7 _5.3 _5.3 _8.8 __ 49.3 ____ (13)

 _08 __ SEASIDE 60 ____________ 5.8 _4.5 _4.8 _8.8 _8.4 _5.1 _5.9 _4.5 __ 47.8 ____ 08

 _09 __ NORRANCE ____________ 7.0 _2.2 _8.4 _9.3 _5.4 _9.4 _1.2 _3.6 __ 46.5 ____T-09

 _10 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE ______3.4 _3.3 _9.8_10.0_3.6 _3.0 _8.6 _5.3 __ 47.0 ____ 11

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Most notable record of course is that it was the hottest May-July period on record. 

 

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Where I live (southern BC) we had the same trends -- near normal mid-winter, cold late Feb and March persisting into early April, and near record warmth since late April. Western part of continents' climates responding in sync to high blocking index?

SEA had a very large +5.0 F anomaly for July, probably also a top three for them. And also similar, just a lot of rather warm weather and few daily records set.

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Monthly Figures - Summary and Top 10.
Only 1 player got it spot on this month Terminal Moraine, while 3 players were 0.1c out Polar Gael Duncan McAlister and emmett garland.

image.thumb.png.fac95d2ec5a3b0f460c43d313fe63842.png

Seasonal - Summary and Top 10.
An all new Top 3, Dancerwithwings, Don and seaside60.

image.thumb.png.9f70bf08f82f567dbcf4069748f2fb0f.png

Overall - Summary and Top 10.
No change at the top with Man with Beard still well in the lead.
A reversal in 2nd and 3rd places, Don up 1 place to 2nd with Norrance down to 3rd.

image.thumb.png.a80d4a18e4f8c1ec6d6eb787f013702e.png

Excel Format - This seems to download again July 2018 CET.xlsx

Stats
The 19.1c was 2.4c above average, but this was well predicted with the average entry being 18.3c. 

image.png.5ad4a5520368f3f4afea3d21f75337a8.png

Edited by J10

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Exceptionally dry June-July periods for England and Wales (<60mm)

1800: 35.8

1868: 36.5

1921: 39.6

1976: 48.8

2018: 55.7

1995: 57.8

1887: 58.9

 

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The Hadley version of EWP was just marginally higher than the NCIC version, 39.9 mm.

Nevertheless, this will generate slightly different scores for the alternate scoring version over in the contest thread. Look for an update by noon 10th or so. I am still on the road trip, got some better internet connections in the city of Grand Junction CO (current temp 37 C). Some like it hot. 

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