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Roger J Smith

July 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

The 06z GFS suggests mean of 17.5 to 18 for the rest of July. That would bring the month down to around 18.8 before adjustments. I could see 40-50 mm of rain from some of the later maps but in the more reliable first ten days not likely to be much over 25% of normal July rainfall by 24th. So most guesses for EWP still have some life in them except probably the highest two. 

Another month close to the mean CET prediction?

Always interesting how close that mean tends to get. 

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0.3 or 0.4 downward again this month.

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15 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

0.3 or 0.4 downward again this month.

Let's hope it finishes on 20.4C then...

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1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Let's hope it finishes on 20.4C then...

Anything is possible with weather.

Probably end up nearer 19 than 20 though.:)

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7 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Anything is possible with weather.

Probably end up nearer 19 than 20 though.:)

19C is still pretty special!

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Just now, Scorcher said:

19C is still pretty special!

Never said it wasn't :good:

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At the risk of being controversial and purely going from the first half and forecast second half.. i don't actually think we 'deserve' to beat 2013. 

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On 14/07/2018 at 17:42, Roger J Smith said:

This is what has happened in the past after long dry spells in late June and early Julyr:

I looked at daily rainfall for the EWP, and searched out all cases of 5 mm or less total rainfall in any 15-day interval ending in late June (28-30) or July 1-15. Then I looked at rainfall in the 30 days after the dry period ended. Most of these candidate dry intervals had an absolute dry spell within them, and 5 mm in 15 days nets a few borderline cases. The daily data began in 1931.

YEAR ___ Dry interval ____ Total rain next 30 d ___ Heaviest 24h rainfall

1949 ____ 8 Jun - 12 Jul ___ 83 mm ______________ 13.9 mm 01 Aug

1975 ____18 Jun - 6 Jul ____ 63 mm ______________ 8.6 mm 07 July

1976 ____20 Jun - 11 Jul ___ 26 mm ______________ 10.9 mm 15 July

1995 ____ 12 Jun - 1 Jul ___ 39 mm _______________ 6.3 mm 14 July

These years often reverted to drought after this barely normal (or for 1976, 1995 subnormal July and early August rainfall). The 1949 case shows how much of a pattern change is possible. 

 

Interesting observations - I often believe late June/early July is the pivotal point in the summer, an unusually dry warm spell at such a time increases the chances of further notably dry warm weather rest of summer, as occurred in the years above, the key is a sustained dry warm period in the late June/early July period - a whole period of such weather not just a few days. 

Will be interesting to see if Sept then produces a deluge as it did in 1976 and 1995. Atlantic has to wake up sometime.

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Still looking very warm over the next 10 days, temperatures have slightly lifted higher than what was originally forecasted a week ago for this week. The ECM is more keen on a more blocked pattern compared to the 00z GFs which is much more tentative.

Worth noting the 00z ECM has 0mm of rain over a fair portion of the SE quarter over the next 240hrs, probably 5-10mm further NW you go, but nothing to wet even further north.

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19.6 to the 15th

3.7 above the 61 to 90 average

3.2 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________ 

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd 

Current low this month 19.6 to the 4th, 13th, 14th & 15th

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Sunny Sheffield at 19.5C +4C above normal rainfall unchanged.

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22 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

At the risk of being controversial and purely going from the first half and forecast second half.. i don't actually think we 'deserve' to beat 2013. 

Probably end up 18.6c atlantic flow is looking a little more prolonged currently.

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19.6 to the 16th

3.7 above the 61 to 90 average

3.2 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________ 

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd 

Current low this month 19.6 to the 4th, 13th, 14th, 15th & 16th

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Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

19.4C to the 17th... +3.0 (16.6: +0.3)
19.3C to the 18th... +2.9 (17.6: +1.1)
19.3C to the 19th... +2.8 (18.9: +2.0)
19.2C to the 20th... +2.8 (18.4: +1.2)
19.2C to the 21st... +2.7 (17.8: +0.9)
19.1C to the 22nd... +2.6 (18.0: +1.1)
19.2C to the 23rd... +2.6 (20.7: +3.8)
19.2C to the 24th... +2.7 (20.7: +4.1)
19.2C to the 25th... +2.7 (18.5: +1.5)
19.1C to the 26th... +2.5 (16.3: -0.9)

Looks like today could be the coolest of the month so far, though still marginally above the 81-10 average. A gradual drop is likely until the weekend, when things will likely stabilise. Looking further ahead to the end of the month, the GFS suggests a drop back to the high 18s before corrections.

CET_17_7_18.thumb.JPG.490c03a99cfd15073167ba47cb804b48.JPG

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1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

19.4C to the 17th... +3.0 (16.6: +0.3)
19.3C to the 18th... +2.9 (17.6: +1.1)
19.3C to the 19th... +2.8 (18.9: +2.0)
19.2C to the 20th... +2.8 (18.4: +1.2)
19.2C to the 21st... +2.7 (17.8: +0.9)
19.1C to the 22nd... +2.6 (18.0: +1.1)
19.2C to the 23rd... +2.6 (20.7: +3.8)
19.2C to the 24th... +2.7 (20.7: +4.1)
19.2C to the 25th... +2.7 (18.5: +1.5)
19.1C to the 26th... +2.5 (16.3: -0.9)

Looks like today could be the coolest of the month so far, though still marginally above the 81-10 average. A gradual drop is likely until the weekend, when things will likely stabilise. Looking further ahead to the end of the month, the GFS suggests a drop back to the high 18s before corrections.

CET_17_7_18.thumb.JPG.490c03a99cfd15073167ba47cb804b48.JPG

Amazing considering the GFS 00Z is about the coolest outlook on offer at the moment! 

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Sunny Sheffield 19.6C +4C above normal. Rainfall 4.5mm 7.9% of the months total.

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1976 rain total trackometer starting from July with June's total

1. 18.7

2. 18.7

3. 19.7

4. 20.2

5. 20.3

6. 20.3

7. 20.3

8. 20.5

9. 21.5

10. 21.5

11. 21.6

12. 25.4

13. 28.3

14. 28.8

15. 39.6

16. 40.4      ~22mm 2018

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19.4 to the 17th

3.5 above the 61 to 90 average

3.0 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________ 

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd 

Current low this month 19.4 to the 17th

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On 16/07/2018 at 11:24, Summer Sun said:

19.6 to the 15th

3.7 above the 61 to 90 average

3.2 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________ 

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd 

Current low this month 19.6 to the 4th, 13th, 14th & 15th

If that ends up being the final figure to the 15th then the first half of July 2018 will be joint-third hottest on record with 1852; only 1983 (19.7C) and 1976 (21.2C) are ahead. Fourth place is 1826 at 19.2C, so a very large downward correction would be required to drop below that.

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Latest GFS goes down the warm route after the weekend, with the CET around 19.4C by the end of both the high res section and the end of the month.

Also, yesterday is provisionally the coolest day of the month so far, at 16.55C. This is still warmer the coolest day of the month for any other July on record.

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16 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Latest GFS goes down the warm route after the weekend, with the CET around 19.4C by the end of both the high res section and the end of the month.

Also, yesterday is provisionally the coolest day of the month so far, at 16.55C. This is still warmer the coolest day of the month for any other July on record.

Looks a reasonable shout. 19C CET well within reach, 20C probably not

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Posted (edited)

BFTV had been mentioning the chance for a new high value for lowest daily CET mean. This is the current top ten with July CET in brackets. Only two of these have been in the last 80 years (2006 and 2010). 

 1. __ 16.3 __ 1783 __ (18.8)

t2. __ 15.5 __ 1818 __ (18.2)

t2. __ 15.5 __ 1934 __ (18.2)

t4. __ 15.4 __ 1794 __ (18.1)

t4. __ 15.4 __ 2006 __ (19.7)

t6. __ 15.2 __ 1800 __ (17.7)

t6. __ 15.2 __ 1852 __ (18.7)

t8. __ 14.9 __ 1781 __ (17.4)

t8. __ 14.9 __ 2010 __ (17.1)

10 __ 14.7 __ 1901 __ (18.0)

Some of the warmer July means fared as follows:

1983 __ 13.7 __ (19.5)

1976 __ 13.5 __ (18.7)

1995 __ 14.0 __ (18.6)

1921 __ 13.9 __ (18.5)

1808 __ 14.3 __ (18.4)

1859 __ 13.3 __ (18.3)

1868 __ 14.3 __ (18.3)

2013 __ 12.4 __ (18.3)

The highest value for August is 15.6 in 1780. Second place to 1801 (14.9) and third was 1947 (14.8). 

Tops for June was 14.2 (1846) followed by 14.0 (2003). 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Sunny Sheffield down to 19.4C +3.8C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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July 2006 would surely be under threat if the GFS 12z came to fruition.

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16 minutes ago, reef said:

July 2006 would surely be under threat if the GFS 12z came to fruition.

As would my sanity!

A huge hot outlier though.

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